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Gotta Wonder Where This Ends (Read 2655 times)
Hirtius
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #45 - Feb 22nd, 2022 at 11:23am
 
You even allude to it. It’s not about could, it’s about would. It’s a matter of will. Russia might be tough, but it’s a chump compared to NATO.

North Korea doesn’t have the military to stand up to Russia. Without foreign intervention, a war between them in the South would see them destroyed. Smaller standing army, much greater resources and reserves.

But anyways, I don’t think Russia would be able to take over Europe like the fears of old. The issue I feel like is a trend over values, and what the world will look like. No one wants to acknowledge it, but we’re sort of already in another, less intense, Cold War between democracy and autocracy. It’s embarrassing to realize that Democratic countries are more powerful but autocracy is winning and gaining ground. You can argue over it being foolish to invade other countries and force our values on them, but we won’t even help defend countries that want to stay democratic like Ukraine or Myanmar.
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Morphy
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #46 - Feb 22nd, 2022 at 2:12pm
 
Curious Aardvark wrote on Feb 22nd, 2022 at 7:40am:
exactly what do you think anyone could do ?

The only countries with standing armies big enough to bother russia are: china, usa and north korea

None of them are either bothered or in a position to do anything about it.

At the end of the day there is very little to stop putin 'annexing' the rest of europe.

There's an old 2000ad comic strip: invasion
All about the 'volgan' (read: sovier union) invasion of europe and the uk.

It's looking more and more like reality every day.

It took america 2 years to decide to enter the second world war.

It'd take a whole helluva lot longer for ANY modern american administration to send troops to europe again.

Our civilisation has been on the downswing for a long time.
Honestly, who knows where this could lead.



I agree with this sentiment for the most part except I think if Russia were to do something it would be in accordance with China and the first major target would be the US.

NATO *is* the US for all intents and purposes. A surprise attack against the US (if Russia deemed the reward great enough for the risk) would mean NATO would have a very hard time fighting what would then be the worlds two superpowers working in tandem. A European NATO might fight back but it would be an uphill battle.
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Hirtius
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #47 - Feb 22nd, 2022 at 3:27pm
 
I wouldn’t call NATO the US. The US might be a big part far and away, but together the rest of NATO is still quite powerful. Again, it’s a matter of will. Russia is not as powerful as it pretends to be, and China is pursuing a less externally provocative path in order to preserve their government. I wouldn’t bet on a WW3 with the US getting attacked anytime soon.
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perpetualstudent
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #48 - Feb 22nd, 2022 at 3:35pm
 
I don't know about "autocracy" vs "democracy". I instinctively dislike that categorization but the more I think about it the more I say "well I see what you're getting at"

As the "people" act more like a mob restraints and manipulations become more understandable and maybe that inevitably leads to the conflict we're observing and being drawn into.
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"Facts stand wholly outside our gates; they are what they are, and no more;they know nothing about themselves and they pass no judgement upon themselves. What is it, then, that pronounces the judgement? Our own guide and ruler, Reason."
 
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Morphy
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #49 - Feb 22nd, 2022 at 3:52pm
 
Hirtius wrote on Feb 22nd, 2022 at 3:27pm:
I wouldn’t bet on a WW3 with the US getting attacked anytime soon.


Define "soon".
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JudoP
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #50 - Feb 22nd, 2022 at 4:58pm
 
Russia absolutely is an underdog vs NATO, even the European NATO. I mean, the UK alone has pretty much the same military spend as Russia. Even then I doubt that any US administration would stand by as western europe enters war with Russia.

More pertinent is all of these countries have access to nuclear weapons, along with some other european states. So direct war seems unlikely to me. Instead antagonism will probably fall more into the cyber and information warfare realm, with the occasional less risky proxy war. The more you see Putin talk the more it seems obvious that everything he says and does is designed to try destabalise and divide up the western powers. This is why he is afraid of NATO and didn't want Ukraine to join it.
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Gaius Marcellus Nerva
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #51 - Feb 22nd, 2022 at 5:08pm
 
If there was a direct war I don't think any nuclear weapons would be used, too risky.

The US and Russia wounldn't have to use nuclear weapons anyway they both have enough chemical weapons to kill the entire earths population several times...
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Happy Slinging, and God bless my friend.
 
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Morphy
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #52 - Feb 22nd, 2022 at 6:15pm
 
Lets not assume too much.

One thing that is as certain as the sun rising is every single time a situation like this arises people say it wont/cant happen because (insert irrefutable reason here). I understand the mindset for why this happens and of course not every border dispute turns into a war. But Im not comfotable claiming this wont turn into one.

With inflation rising here in America I see many of the usual signs that happen preceding a war. But Im content to sit and wait. Im not claiming tomorrow or next year, timelines are tricky like that, but its coming and it will probably involve conflict with Russia and China. That's my belief anyways. Ill go ahead and bookmark this thread so I can refer back to it if/when it happens.  Wink

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AncientCraftwork
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #53 - Feb 23rd, 2022 at 4:59am
 
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Hirtius
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #54 - Feb 23rd, 2022 at 11:59am
 
AncientCraftwork wrote on Feb 23rd, 2022 at 4:59am:
An interesting clip
https://twitter.com/KyleKashuv/status/1496262915367870465?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1496262915367870465|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message5054917/pg3


You know, I think I see. This video of a speech without context and interspersed with footage of unrest and police crackdowns and ominous music that implies conspiracy theories about a secret plot to take over the world involving people the audience has already been told not to like; it all makes sense. How did I not see it?

Now I understand moving to Belarus, where governments being evil and police crackdown on dissent wouldn’t happen.
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Morphy
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #55 - Feb 24th, 2022 at 1:42pm
 
Well it appears Putin is not dissuaded by NATO.
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perpetualstudent
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #56 - Feb 24th, 2022 at 2:11pm
 
he's not fighting NATO and NATO didn't promise to help. Looks like he's taking everything east of the river. The widespread attacks I imagine were mainly aimed at knocking out aircraft and anti-air.

I wonder if in retaliation the diminished Ukraine will be given NATO membership.  Sounds like something that will make no one happy but might re-balance things.


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"Facts stand wholly outside our gates; they are what they are, and no more;they know nothing about themselves and they pass no judgement upon themselves. What is it, then, that pronounces the judgement? Our own guide and ruler, Reason."
 
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Hirtius
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #57 - Feb 24th, 2022 at 2:33pm
 
NATO would’ve already added Ukraine if they would, there is a lot of opposition to them joining NATO on the basis that they need to be stable, which Russia knows. Even after this is done, I doubt life will be any easier for Ukrainians since Russia is incentivized to mess with them.
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Morphy
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #58 - Feb 24th, 2022 at 4:03pm
 
perpetualstudent wrote on Feb 24th, 2022 at 2:11pm:
he's not fighting NATO and NATO didn't promise to help. Looks like he's taking everything east of the river.


I understand that. NATO is clearly on his mind though as he went out of his way to state he would retaliate against any nation that interfered. NATO, being the most obvious threat of retaliation, did not dissuade him from his actions. He wasn't speaking of Uganda when he said that.  Wink


EDIT: "In an address to the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that "diplomatically, politically, economically – and eventually, militarily – this hideous and barbaric venture of Vladimir Putin must end in failure".

Putin for all his problems is extremely intelligent. He would have to know this is the kind of response he was going to get. Hence my statement on him not being dissuaded. That's about as bold a threat you can make without coming right out and saying "Invade Ukraine and we attack."  And Im sure he expected it. Or, let me say it this way he would have to be a complete fool not to have and he's no fool.
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« Last Edit: Feb 24th, 2022 at 5:32pm by Morphy »  

"I think this guy is the king of trolls of the forum, he waited 16 years just to say this. please pay your respects in an orderly fashion."-Sarosh
 
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perpetualstudent
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Re: Gotta Wonder Where This Ends
Reply #59 - Feb 24th, 2022 at 5:37pm
 
Ah, I apologize I was confused. Grin

NATO acting without an attack on a member state would be...doubtful. NATO operates outside of mutual defense by consensus. Any member could sink it. And turkey last I saw was still mulling over restricting Russian shipping. I would be very surprised if NATO could get consensus to commit troops to try to dig out the Russians.
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"Facts stand wholly outside our gates; they are what they are, and no more;they know nothing about themselves and they pass no judgement upon themselves. What is it, then, that pronounces the judgement? Our own guide and ruler, Reason."
 
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