Slinging.org Forum - Any country that values freedom over safety?

Lightning Jack

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #105 - Oct 10^th, 2021 at 1:59pm

@ratman: I have read the entire constitution dozens of times. Teaching The theory of evolution is in violation of the constitution as well (assuming you mean the 1st amendment) because it technically is a religion because it isn’t true and there is an overwhelming amount of evidence to disprove it, therefore you have to believe that it is true. It actually would be more likely that a meteor hit an iron mine and create a skyscraper than evolution to even think about being true. And how does an infinitesimal dot of nothing explode into everything anyway? The same way that you feel about your tax money is the same way I feel about mine, if we can’t agree then don’t teach any of it.

I’m not trying to make enemies on the forum I’m just telling you my take on these topics, which many people would agree with me, you should try watching a couple of Kent Hovind videos on YouTube, he can explain some things better than me. Anyway, like I said before I’m not trying to start a war on the forum, and this will prolly be my last post on this topic.

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Rat Man

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #106 - Oct 10^th, 2021 at 2:13pm

Quote:

@ratman: I have read the entire constitution dozens of times. Teaching The theory of evolution is in violation of the constitution as well (assuming you mean the 1st amendment) because it technically is a religion because it isn’t true and there is an overwhelming amount of evidence to disprove it, therefore you have to believe that it is true. It actually would be more likely that a meteor hit an iron mine and create a skyscraper than evolution to even think about being true. And how does an infinitesimal dot of nothing explode into everything anyway? The same way that you feel about your tax money is the same way I feel about mine, if we can’t agree then don’t teach any of it.

I’m not trying to make enemies on the forum I’m just telling you my take on these topics, which many people would agree with me, you should try watching a couple of Kent Hovind videos on YouTube, he can explain some things better than me. Anyway, like I said before I’m not trying to start a war on the forum, and this will prolly be my last post on this topic.

We are not enemies. Your opinion is welcome and disagreement here on the forum is fine, as long as it's done in a civilized manner. Evolution is a theory. Theories aren't religions.

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/theory

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/religion

I am very interested in your evidence that disproves evolution. Please enlighten us.

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perpetualstudent

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #107 - Oct 10^th, 2021 at 5:32pm

IronGoober wrote on Oct 10^th, 2021 at 11:43am:

I realize studies are not the most definitive source for information but here is the CDC site. [url]. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0806-vaccination-protection.html [/url]
This was back in August.

I think you misunderstood what the study says they're comparing natural immunity to
"those who were fully vaccinated after initially contracting the virus"

They aren't comparing natural immunity to vaccinated, they're comparing natural immunity to natural immunity + vaccine. The misleading bits are rarely in the methods (though that's possible) generally it lies in the definitions.

RM while you say that his opinion is welcome the thrust of your posts doesn't agree. Perhaps it would be best to let it lie.

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JudoP

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #108 - Oct 11^th, 2021 at 5:03am

Sweet lord this thread went downhill.

My view of the freedom vs social spectrum- it's a balance.

If you want absolute freedom then you won't be able to live with other people, if you want absolute social cohesion then you lose freedom completely.

Yearning for absolute freedom is as foolish as yearning for total social cohesion/control. Your actions affect others, that's simply a fact. If you want to act exactly how you please then there are plenty of wildernesses to flourish in without human society holding you back.

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Sarosh

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #109 - Oct 11^th, 2021 at 9:00am

JudoP wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 5:03am:

If you want to act exactly how you please then there are plenty of wildernesses to flourish in without human society holding you back.

I dont know if you read it all.
the idea is to escape to wilderness. when I posted this my country had measures that made that illegal. Following a covid quarantine pattern every 2 weeks they renewed the measures prohibiting access to wilderness without making any decent effort to fight what caused the problem(fire), fearmongering or top down terrorism won again. it's like training to be afraid what you are told to be afraid of. The question was any countries that dont do that? based on governments and peoples response to covid.

areas with very low population density like deserts and tundra means that these kind of measures cannot be enforced so they win by default.
the more interesting is to find a place in the temperate zone that has people but the government doesn't interfere too much in their lives.

capitalist countries are adopting the worst practices of socialism willingly, if we are going socialist we need a plan or we end up totalitarian, I see no plans so...

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Morphy

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #110 - Oct 11^th, 2021 at 3:52pm

Sarosh wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 9:00am:

JudoP wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 5:03am:

If you want to act exactly how you please then there are plenty of wildernesses to flourish in without human society holding you back.

, if we are going socialist we need a plan or we end up totalitarian, I see no plans so...

Looking back on this thread I wonder if covid is really even the issue. Perhaps this is the real issue. That is the ability to argue that we are actually heading in that direction. If you cant convince people that there is a real danger of approaching totalitarianism virtually nothing else you say matters.

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Hirtius

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #111 - Oct 14^th, 2021 at 12:00am

Great point Morphy. But where does the totalitarianism come from? I think that’s the danger, assuming that totalitarianism would come from an existing institution. If I was a totalitarian leader, I would convince people that the experts or others that challenge me are not to be believed. I would probably also try to convince them the other side is totalitarian, muddy the waters a little bit and look like both sides have equal weight. In my experience, many of the people I know who are most concerned with “totalitarianism” are the most likely to support it, because they’d put the totalitarian in power who wouldn’t put their head on the chopping block. That is not a dig on you Morphy, because I don’t know you well, it’s just a general observation from others I’ve been around.

If it sounds like there are political undertones in that statement, I’ll be a bit more blatant. The coup attempt in my country did not come from those advocating for Covid measures, it came from those opposing them.

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IronGoober

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #112 - Oct 14^th, 2021 at 12:13am

perpetualstudent wrote on Oct 10^th, 2021 at 5:32pm:

IronGoober wrote on Oct 10^th, 2021 at 11:43am:

I realize studies are not the most definitive source for information but here is the CDC site. [url]. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0806-vaccination-protection.html [/url]
This was back in August.

I think you misunderstood what the study says they're comparing natural immunity to
"those who were fully vaccinated after initially contracting the virus"

They aren't comparing natural immunity to vaccinated, they're comparing natural immunity to natural immunity + vaccine. The misleading bits are rarely in the methods (though that's possible) generally it lies in the definitions.

RM while you say that his opinion is welcome the thrust of your posts doesn't agree. Perhaps it would be best to let it lie.

You are right, I did miss that point.

I still think hesitation to get the vaccine, which has been shown to be effective, because you already have natural immunity is silly, though. If one has an option to doubly protect oneself and those around them (by reducing the chance of transmission) from something that has been proven to kill about 1% of those it infects, why wouldn't one?? The virus is way more probable to cause harmful effects (both short and long term) than the vaccine at this point, and there is lots of data to back that up. That's my thought anyway.

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John R.

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Sarosh

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #113 - Oct 14^th, 2021 at 3:45am

Morphy wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 3:52pm:

I wonder if covid is really even the issue

covid deadly or not once enough people were afraid of it, it was a great opportunity for radical change. every tragedy if it makes people emotional it's an opportunity for more power.

Hirtius wrote on Oct 14^th, 2021 at 12:00am:

I would probably also try to convince them the other side is totalitarian, muddy the waters a little bit and look like both sides have equal weight.

both sides in all countries have muddied the waters, both are different sides of the same coin they are the politicians.
the people are willing to sacrifice their identity or freedom to feel a little safe, that they belong somewhere that is fertile ground for totalitarianism. Politicians were always the same, at this point it is not the politicians being the ones who change it is the people.

Hirtius wrote on Oct 14^th, 2021 at 12:00am:

The coup attempt in my country did not come from those advocating for Covid measures, it came from those opposing them.

more of those who didn't pick sides before now pick one, both sides have an excuse to stop negotiating with each other so both sides want the same thing.

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perpetualstudent

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #114 - Oct 14^th, 2021 at 10:34am

You wind up in a nice little bind when you start talking about unknowable future states. The way I've seen it put, on the same webpage no less is "we don't know the long term effects of Covid so get vaccinated" and "we know there are no long term negative effects from the vaccine so get vaccinated". There's an element of inability to know but you can't invoke it in such a biased manner (the medical spokespeople, not you IG). It's that kind of grade school manipulation (heads I win, tails you lose) that is decimating trust in science.

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"Facts stand wholly outside our gates; they are what they are, and no more;they know nothing about themselves and they pass no judgement upon themselves. What is it, then, that pronounces the judgement? Our own guide and ruler, Reason."

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IronGoober

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #115 - Oct 14^th, 2021 at 11:13am

perpetualstudent wrote on Oct 14^th, 2021 at 10:34am:

There's an element of inability to know but you can't invoke it in such a biased manner (the medical spokespeople, not you IG). It's that kind of grade school manipulation (heads I win, tails you lose) that is decimating trust in science.

I agree with the your statement "inability to know". But I think this is the case with the future in general. I think that probabilities are what should be examined. No one can know the future and so one must weigh risk based on probability (Since we are not all capable of calculating individual risks, we must do this through perceived risk). i.e. dying in an airplane crash has a very historically low probability so most people are comfortable with flying. But from what I understand, having long term complications/adverse effects from contracting COVID is much more probable than having complications from a vaccine (I say a vaccine in the general sense). While this vaccine is indeed "new' to the general population (mRNA), many of the methods have existed for many years. Compounded with the history of vaccines being safe (mostly, I realize there are cases where adverse short and long term effects were seen with some vaccines), in my opinion, the probability of having any adverse long term effects from the COVID vaccine are much less than from contracting the disease itself. So the perceived risk from the vaccine should be lower than the disease itself. But that doesn't seem to be the case for many people, many are more worried about the vaccine than the disease and it doesn't make sense to me.

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John R.

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perpetualstudent

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #116 - Oct 14^th, 2021 at 2:57pm

It's the biased nature of the communication, the doubletalk and the quick turnarounds. And that piles on to the distrust beforehand which dials nicely into existing political differences.

People might take that argument more seriously except they watched the official lines change
"there are no side effects and it's 99% effective and will give herd immunity if enough get it"
"ok there are some side effects but they're minor and it's 95% effective but cannot grant herd immunity"
"ok there have been some fatalities but it's 77% effective at keeping you out of the hospital"
and I'm expecting now
"ok, on the balance you're safer getting it and it's more than 50% effective as long as you get your yearly shot"

It's no good to say "but we were just doing good science" there was not enough caution in what they claimed and people are seeing a pattern and extending it. Are most of them capable of that line of reasoning? Of course not. I'd bet fewer than 1 in 10 could explain a standard deviation or least squares regression. And that's kind of the point, they trusted the officials to do that for them and now they see either incompetence or lying. Either way you get the loss in confidence.

The philosophers of science have been talking about Science's reformation for years now COVID has been the brick that broke the camel's back. I think we'll look back on it as we do Luther nailing his theses to the church door.

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"Facts stand wholly outside our gates; they are what they are, and no more;they know nothing about themselves and they pass no judgement upon themselves. What is it, then, that pronounces the judgement? Our own guide and ruler, Reason."

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IronGoober

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #117 - Oct 14^th, 2021 at 8:13pm

I can appreciate the doubt from changing the official statements, but as far as I can tell, the changing statement were due to transparency about what was known at the time. Each statement was revised as more data was known. The virus was changing as time went on, which necessitated changing the official statements. 95% effectiveness was against the original strain. Delta changed everything and the official numbers had to change reflect the new state of what was known/estimated. So, essentially, you are surmising that they were too transparent and that it actually degraded confidence (am I interpreting that right?)

So what do you think would have been better? more conservative estimates? Herd immunity was a best guess from what I've seen, but at the time, I think it was assumed that immunity from re-infection would last longer, both natural and vaccine-induced. What do you think would have been a better approach?

I'm curious what you mean about Science's reformation? I know there is plenty I don't like in the field of peer review... but what are you referring to, can you expand on that, because I'm unfamiliar.

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John R.

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perpetualstudent

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #118 - Oct 14^th, 2021 at 11:18pm

No, the scientists who developed the vaccine said they never expected it to stop infection, which is the pre-requisite to herd immunity. That's baked into the models. I linked that story earlier, it was Reuter's that reported it. So you can choose whether it was lie or incompetency but incorrect transparency isn't on the table. And neither can blaming it on delta. We already knew the virus was mutating and would further. The best face you can put is that knowing your only chance was huge immediate vaccination to try to get herd immunity, you lied to get it because the truth wouldn't move the herd. But then you lose the only saving grace of science which is that it speaks Truth, not politics.

That leads to your next question, the philosophers of science, are the academics asking "what is science? How do we do differentiate between pseudo-science and outdated science and True Science?", a lot of that discussion started with Kuhn but kept going albeit without much fanfare. It winds up a thorny question where all the pat answers are wrong (although I would argue Skinner's answer is the best I've seen). The philosophers who have been seriously discussing it, have talked about an analogy to "the reformation". The time when an institution goes from being allowed to speak indisputable Truth, to when they the lose the confidence of the people and counter interpretations start. Mainly philosophy, some biologists and historians, the odd sociologist gets involved.

Ultimately, scientists made claims, are continuing to make claims, that are not properly limited and it is those overstatements that are killing the trust. I don't buy that it was honest mistakes because of the screwing around with definitions. You read that CDC study as it was meant to be read, to leave you with the conclusion that the vaccine was better even though that's not what the definitions were. The shift in language from "protects against infection at X%" to "protects against hospitalization" is another similar one. These stories are not saying "the protection wanes faster than we'd hoped and we wildly over-estimated long term efficacy but still seem robust against hospitalization" the goalposts are changed. That isn't science, it's PR, or put more bluntly manipulation. Even now your estimate for the fatality rate is at least 2x greater than the data show, possibly as much as 5x. Nor do people understand that well over 90% of the fatalities are over 65 at least in the US (I want to say 97% last time I looked at the data from the CDC).

This post is already too long but most people aren't going to go this deep. They are either going to keep jumping as the official lines change and say "it was the best data we had" or say "these people are lying", each jump more people move into that second category as they see (or think they see) a pattern.

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"Facts stand wholly outside our gates; they are what they are, and no more;they know nothing about themselves and they pass no judgement upon themselves. What is it, then, that pronounces the judgement? Our own guide and ruler, Reason."

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IronGoober

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Re: Any country that values freedom over safety?
Reply #119 - Oct 17^th, 2021 at 1:57am

From my perspective, manipulation to a degree that was nefarious was not present. More that manipulation that is present in most information that is shared with the public was present. Yes, experts didn't expect the vaccine to be 100% effective, and they knew its effectiveness would wane with time. But as an extreme example, one doesn't write an abstract to a scientific paper with all of the caveats of one's discovery. "We discovered this new method to improve X (caveat: it doesn't work in when its raining outside, and since it is for areas of the South eastern US, this makes it useful only in certain cases). One would just write about the usefulness of the new method to advertise it. Why would you try and tell people about all of the problems with the vaccine when it wouldn't have changed any of the facts that it would decrease in effectiveness? There was the hope that it would turn the pandemic around, sharing the bad news wouldn't likely have affected most people's decision to take it. Again, from my perspective any lack of information wasn't manipulation beyond what occurs in any other forms of public information such as news, advertisements, etc.

Ok, I understand. On that note, a problem with talking about "Truth" in science, is that science itself is an just an interpretation of data. There is no "Truth" there is just what we haven't proven to be false. Theories cannot be proven, only shown that they are not false. That is a fundamental problem with science. You have to have some level of trust of the "experts". Even when you are learning something new, you have to trust that what you are being taught is actually true and that someone before you figured out what is true (or at least that it hasn't been proven false). You can test it yourself, but there is just too much in the universe to test if you ever want to make progress. It seems that it is very easy to go down that rabbit hole deeply (i.e. of distrust) if trust in experts is lost (take the flat earth theory for example).

The fatality probability I was using is just deaths/known cases. Known cases vs real cases is underestimated, so yes, the actual death rate is lower, but I'm dubious that it's 5x lower.

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John R.

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