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Coronavirus (Read 33234 times)
AncientCraftwork
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #165 - Apr 16th, 2020 at 1:23pm
 
The amount of people on the IC here is going down every day.

I no longer believe this virus is as big a threat as I thought.

Yes, the death rate is high if you compare it to the confirmed cases.
But the confirmed cases doesn't represent the actual amount of cases. The actual amount is probably be
100-1000 times higher.  And if you than compare the death rate to that, it all suddenly seems like not much worse than a regular flu.

And I don't believe it's due to the quarantine measures at all. No quarantine can stop a highly contagious virus like this. Chances most people in my country had it and survived it

I, my whole family and many I knew had a little flu about a month ago. That's all.

If this is the case, than it means all of this was an exercise in government control and/or an attempt to crash the global economy
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AncientCraftwork
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #166 - Apr 16th, 2020 at 1:30pm
 
For example, 650k confirmed cases in the States.
Now what does that even mean?  All those people infected others in the incubation period and they did as well. The real amount of cases could be 65 million  or more.

And 65 million / 33,490 deaths that gives a death rate of 0.05%
The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the US


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Kick
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #167 - Apr 16th, 2020 at 3:45pm
 
It's not really about the death rate though. It's the number of people sick putting strain on health services. Having a lot of people turn up in an emergency department all at once with breathing difficulties, even if they recover, puts a huge strain on services, personnel and resources. We don't have these same stresses with a regular flu season. This came out of nowhere (though was predictable...).
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You are a great guy Kick but also slightly scary at times. - Morphy
"Nothing matters, but it’s perhaps more comfortable to keep calm and not interfere with other people." - H.P. Lovecraft, in a letter to Frank Belknap Long, 7 October, 1923
 
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Rat Man
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #168 - Apr 17th, 2020 at 1:24pm
 
    I think  I've seen this movie before.  By Fall we have a good grip on the situation.  Then the Coronavirus mutates into something far worse and life as we know it is changed forever.
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Kick
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #169 - Apr 17th, 2020 at 1:26pm
 
Too late for that. I think we'll be entering 2021 with a lot of people still in isolation.
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You are a great guy Kick but also slightly scary at times. - Morphy
"Nothing matters, but it’s perhaps more comfortable to keep calm and not interfere with other people." - H.P. Lovecraft, in a letter to Frank Belknap Long, 7 October, 1923
 
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Bill Skinner
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #170 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 10:42am
 
It doesn't really matter how many people got it and recovered, in the States, it has already killed as many people in two months as the flu does in a year.  So, it's a lot worse than the flu.

I sort of wonder if the reason the death rate levels off is because it will have killed off the people with the most underlying problems in an area and most people with no underlying health problems will just get it and not have any problems.

And the ones who aren't having any problems are just walking around giving it to everybody else.  Who get it and don't have problems and give it to everybody else, who don't have problems...up until it kills Grandma.  Because she's elderly and has a weaker immune system.

But with the lack of testing by most countries, we'll never know.
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AncientCraftwork
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #171 - Apr 19th, 2020 at 5:05pm
 
https://www.rt.com/usa/486183-stanford-coronavirus-infection-rate-higher/

A recent Stanford University study found the Covid-19 infection rate is probably between 50 and 85 times higher than official figures had previously indicated. The study looked for antibodies in 3,330 people in Santa Clara County. Antibodies develop in the blood after someone has been infected with the coronavirus and cleared it. And a much greater proportion of Santa Clarans had them than official figures had at that point suggested.
If the findings — which have yet to be peer reviewed — are sound, then it takes yet another thick slice off the mortality rate of Covid-19. It would now be something under 0.14 percent, putting it on a par with, or even lower than, the seasonal flu.


Link to study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
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Morphy
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #172 - Apr 19th, 2020 at 5:10pm
 
Good catch Jauke. If that is the case, that coupled with what I mentioned earlier means we have potentially played a very dangerous game with our economy.  I assume they are not even considering the national guidelines of categorizing all covid positive patient deaths as covid deaths which means it could be far less lethal than the flu. Let’s hope this was all worth it. Time will tell.
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wanderer
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #173 - Apr 20th, 2020 at 8:38am
 
AncientCraftwork wrote on Apr 19th, 2020 at 5:05pm:


This study is trying to get a decent estimate for the asymptomatic infection, but has come in for some criticism. A blog post which covers the aspects the author dislikes: https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-s
anta-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25


Morphy wrote on Apr 19th, 2020 at 5:10pm:
Good catch Jauke. If that is the case, that coupled with what I mentioned earlier means we have potentially played a very dangerous game with our economy.  I assume they are not even considering the national guidelines of categorizing all covid positive patient deaths as covid deaths which means it could be far less lethal than the flu. Let’s hope this was all worth it. Time will tell.


The CDC guidelines supply codes for the disease from some time around a month ago. Death certificates should be distinguishing between cases in which COVID-19 is considered to be a contributing factor and where it is not, regardless of whether a positive test was recorded.

The decision makers should certainly be making their decisions on data which is as accurate as possible, and they should be well aware of potential bias within the reporting. The decision to 'shut down' the economy, or at least some bits of it - not Wall Street, obviously  Roll Eyes - made sense to people at the time.

Misattribution of the role of COVID-19 in deaths can be argued in both directions.

It's clear we are already into the 'was it worth it?' stage of this business. So I guess that is a sign of progress.

Amazing how easily we can now write off around 36,000 deaths in the U.S. over such a short period.  Sad

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Kick
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #174 - Apr 20th, 2020 at 9:12am
 
I saw a post that was saying that there are two options in this sort of situation: shut everything down entirely and then have everyone ask if it was worth it and complain about the consequences or you can not do that and be brought to trial later and everyone complain about the consequences. It's difficult to win.

The microcosm of this is our ward. We had a suspected case, isolated the person, isolated the room they were previously in and all the people they shared the room with. We used the masks and gowns and gloves and everything, supplies of which are very limited, and waited for the test results. Negative. We had "wasted that PPE because they didn't have coronavirus (they seem to have a different virus but if we imagine the scenario that they came back with a clean bill of health for the sake of the metaphor), but... what if they did have coronavirus? You have to take things like this seriously because over reacting can be bad but under-reacting leads to people dying. At city-scale, country-scale, global-scale, that's a LOT of people dying, which is what we've seen.

There can be no denying that this virus is incredibly contagious. It's lethality at the present moment is not really the point, it COULD mutate into something truly horrific and the further it's spread, the more people it's infected, the likelihood of that happening increases (and as previously mentioned, the strain put on hospitals by sick people can be it's own danger). We need to stop people getting this virus because it's so easy to catch and is already very dangerous for the old and health compromised. If it got even a tiny bit more dangerous, that's potentially millions of more deaths.
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You are a great guy Kick but also slightly scary at times. - Morphy
"Nothing matters, but it’s perhaps more comfortable to keep calm and not interfere with other people." - H.P. Lovecraft, in a letter to Frank Belknap Long, 7 October, 1923
 
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Morphy
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #175 - Apr 20th, 2020 at 2:18pm
 
wanderer wrote on Apr 20th, 2020 at 8:38am:
[quote author=6E65716F612A4C040 link=1583979728/171#171 date=1587330348]

It's clear we are already into the 'was it worth it?' stage of this business. So I guess that is a sign of progress.

Amazing how easily we can now write off around 36,000 deaths in the U.S. over such a short period.  Sad




I would call that inevitable actually Wanderer. Unless this virus was 10 times worse than what we are seeing, such second guessing was inevitable. For political and economic reasons at the very least. And before anyone decides whether it was worth it I think it would be prudent to wait and see what happens with the economy.

While most seem to be firmly in the corner of pro-quarantine (I am on the fence at the moment, not anti-quarantine just to make that clear) it’s  premature to make a decision on this subject until we see how this plays out.

Some economists are now saying if the economy isn’t opened soon we could be in for another Great Depression. I’ve mentioned in the past that I enjoy history and looking at the patterns that seem to follow in relatively predictable cycles.

Assuming America falls into a serious economic downturn the world will not be immune to that pain as we are in a global economy. Historically speaking major depressions precede war, as war is one of the fastest ways to restart an economy. So before we can decide that this was all worth it for a death rate that is on par with many normal illnesses, I would caution everyone to wait and see. What’s done is done now. Right now it’s very easy to look at the potential pandemic and say of course shutting everyone down was the only sane move. But that is a position that only exists because we haven’t see the other side here. How bad an economic downturn must we have before we decide it wasn’t worth it? We don’t know yet, since we’ve only seen one side.

I realize I’m throwing out a lot of stuff here. I’m not claiming this is going to be an over night process. Far from it. I want this here for posterity sake. I’m willing to post my thoughts on this online so later on I can come back here and see how close or far away from the mark I was.

As far as the overall death toll and the infection rates, a study done in California has shown that almost a hundred times more people have antibodies for this virus than was previously thought. Now, as with all studies, some people question the validity, but that’s what the tests show. Which suggests this has been going around much longer than previously thought. Draw your own conclusions.
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Morphy
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #176 - Apr 20th, 2020 at 6:44pm
 
Morphy wrote on Apr 20th, 2020 at 2:18pm:
wanderer wrote on Apr 20th, 2020 at 8:38am:
[quote author=6E65716F612A4C040 link=1583979728/171#171 date=1587330348]

It's clear we are already into the 'was it worth it?' stage of this business. So I guess that is a sign of progress.

Amazing how easily we can now write off around 36,000 deaths in the U.S. over such a short period.  Sad




I would call that inevitable actually Wanderer. Unless this virus was 10 times worse than what we are seeing, such second guessing was inevitable. For political and economic reasons at the very least. And before anyone decides whether it was worth it I think it would be prudent to wait and see what happens with the economy.

While most seem to be firmly in the corner of pro-quarantine (I am on the fence at the moment, not anti-quarantine just to make that clear) it’s  premature to make a decision on this subject until we see how this plays out.

Some economists are now saying if the economy isn’t opened soon we could be in for another Great Depression. I’ve mentioned in the past that I enjoy history and looking at the patterns that seem to follow in relatively predictable cycles.

Assuming America falls into a serious economic downturn the world will not be immune to that pain as we are in a global economy. Historically speaking major depressions precede war, as war is one of the fastest ways to restart an economy. So before we can decide that this was all worth it for a death rate that is on par with many normal illnesses, I would caution everyone to wait and see. What’s done is done now. Right now it’s very easy to look at the potential pandemic and say of course shutting everyone down was the only sane move. But that is a position that only exists because we haven’t see the other side here. How bad an economic downturn must we have before we decide it wasn’t worth it? We don’t know yet, since we’ve only seen one side.

I realize I’m throwing out a lot of stuff here. I’m not claiming this is going to be an over night process. Far from it. I want this here for posterity sake. I’m willing to post my thoughts on this online so later on I can come back here and see how close or far away from the mark I was.

As far as the overall death toll and the infection rates, a study done in California has shown that almost a hundred times more people have antibodies for this virus than was previously thought. Now, as with all studies, some people question the validity, but that’s what the tests show. Which suggests this has been going around much longer than previously thought. Draw your own conclusions.


Oil crashes below zero for first time ever.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
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NooneOfConsequence
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #177 - Apr 21st, 2020 at 12:31am
 
@Morphy: it’s true that historically speaking, the solution to economic collapse is war, but when both the economy and the collapse happen globally... who’s on the other side to fight???
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #178 - Apr 21st, 2020 at 4:35am
 
I really think the virus has knocked a lot of the wind out the various generals of the world. People keep forgetting, but we were seemingly on the brink of a nuclear war between the US and Iran in JANUARY! It feels like a thousand years ago now.
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You are a great guy Kick but also slightly scary at times. - Morphy
"Nothing matters, but it’s perhaps more comfortable to keep calm and not interfere with other people." - H.P. Lovecraft, in a letter to Frank Belknap Long, 7 October, 1923
 
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Morphy
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #179 - Apr 21st, 2020 at 6:27am
 
NooneOfConsequence wrote on Apr 21st, 2020 at 12:31am:
@Morphy: it’s true that historically speaking, the solution to economic collapse is war, but when both the economy and the collapse happen globally... who’s on the other side to fight???


We are a global economy not a global nation state. But maybe after all this we will be who knows.
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