wanderer wrote on Apr 20
th, 2020 at 8:38am:
[quote author=6E65716F612A4C040 link=1583979728/171#171 date=1587330348]
It's clear we are already into the 'was it worth it?' stage of this business. So I guess that is a sign of progress.
Amazing how easily we can now write off around 36,000 deaths in the U.S. over such a short period.
I would call that inevitable actually Wanderer. Unless this virus was 10 times worse than what we are seeing, such second guessing was inevitable. For political and economic reasons at the very least. And before anyone decides whether it was worth it I think it would be prudent to wait and see what happens with the economy.
While most seem to be firmly in the corner of pro-quarantine (I am on the fence at the moment, not anti-quarantine just to make that clear) it’s premature to make a decision on this subject until we see how this plays out.
Some economists are now saying if the economy isn’t opened soon we could be in for another Great Depression. I’ve mentioned in the past that I enjoy history and looking at the patterns that seem to follow in relatively predictable cycles.
Assuming America falls into a serious economic downturn the world will not be immune to that pain as we are in a global economy. Historically speaking major depressions precede war, as war is one of the fastest ways to restart an economy. So before we can decide that this was all worth it for a death rate that is on par with many normal illnesses, I would caution everyone to wait and see. What’s done is done now. Right now it’s very easy to look at the potential pandemic and say of course shutting everyone down was the only sane move. But that is a position that only exists because we haven’t see the other side here. How bad an economic downturn must we have before we decide it wasn’t worth it? We don’t know yet, since we’ve only seen one side.
I realize I’m throwing out a lot of stuff here. I’m not claiming this is going to be an over night process. Far from it. I want this here for posterity sake. I’m willing to post my thoughts on this online so later on I can come back here and see how close or far away from the mark I was.
As far as the overall death toll and the infection rates, a study done in California has shown that almost a hundred times more people have antibodies for this virus than was previously thought. Now, as with all studies, some people question the validity, but that’s what the tests show. Which suggests this has been going around much longer than previously thought. Draw your own conclusions.