Welcome, Guest. Please Login
SLINGING.ORG
 
Home Help Search Login


Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 16
Send Topic Print
Coronavirus (Read 6099 times)
Kick
Interfector Viris Spurii
*****
Offline



Posts: 2708
Finland
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #75 - Mar 20th, 2020 at 7:03am
 
https://youtu.be/BtN-goy9VOY

This video is very good. Explains everything in simple terms and what we all have to do. Share it around.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
wanderer
Interfector Viris Spurii
*****
Offline



Posts: 1343
Texas
Gender: male
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #76 - Mar 20th, 2020 at 8:59am
 
JudoP wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 6:41am:
I know a friend, and a friend of a friend who have/have had covid now. Given all the people that I would be likely to get news of them getting it (perhaps a few hundred) I crudely estimate that it has reached about 1% infection rate in the UK- or 660k people.

This implies a very low death rate of 144/660k ~0.02%

Of course that illness will not have ran it's course in people that already have it, so we would expect this level of infection to cause more deaths in the next week. That and the infection rate may be way higher in young people which I disproportionately know.


That's an interesting report Smiley. I think you are not far off with the numbers.


Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Teg
Funditor
****
Offline



Posts: 992
Central Europe
Gender: male
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #77 - Mar 20th, 2020 at 11:00am
 
Quote:
This implies a very low death rate of 144/660k ~0.02%


Yeah, the dark figure issue... I think, the country getting closest to mass testing while having significant numbers of cases is South Korea. Their numbers suggest a lethality in the same range of about 1%. But who knows what factors play into that number such as received care etc.

Italy is not (yet) broadband testing. So their dark figure is likely very, very high. But what happens in their hospitals is a good estimate of what will happen here in Switzerland as well.
Even with a death rate of 0.01% (of real cases, not just the diagnosed ones), hospitalization rate will be much higher, well beyond capacity.
Most of my colleagues who are in civilian defence (i.e. not in the army) got mobilised. We have reached destination f and we are slowly realising it. Nevertheless, the Bundesrat interestingly decided just now not to implement curfew. The belief in peoples sense of responsibility seems to exist. Shopping this morning was surprisingly easy. No panic buying. Even toilet paper was available† Cheesy

From a evolutionary perspective (the virus perspective, not the human one), this virus is very good. Low level symptoms in a majority of the cases, infectuous before showing symptoms, ...

I messed up the South Korean numbers. It is fixed now.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
wanderer
Interfector Viris Spurii
*****
Offline



Posts: 1343
Texas
Gender: male
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #78 - Mar 20th, 2020 at 12:27pm
 
Morphy wrote on Mar 19th, 2020 at 8:35pm:
Iíve come to the conclusion that test kits, while important for the overall picture, are not going to give the full view of whatís actually going on. If Texas runs 50,000 tests tomorrow and we find actually 20 times as many people have it as we thought that doesnít actually change anything.


I agree with you.

The tests would have been at their best at early stages and for things like contact tracing. Even then they are inevitably pretty clumsy, and you get the answer days after the sampling.

The antibody tests will be 'nice to have' but useless as far as dealing with the next month. It will be useful later.

What the nature of this virus has done is allowed it to 'get in under the radar' and cook away more or less without any red flags being raised. A lot of what will happen in the next week or so is already baked in.

Keep safe, Morphy.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
wanderer
Interfector Viris Spurii
*****
Offline



Posts: 1343
Texas
Gender: male
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #79 - Mar 20th, 2020 at 1:02pm
 
Quote:
From a evolutionary perspective (the virus perspective, not the human one), this virus is very good. Low level symptoms in a majority of the cases, infectuous before showing symptoms, ...


As I was watching things unfold, and thinking of what is facing a lot of my medic friends in places like New York, Dallas, and some of the other big cities, and frankly in tears about what will happen, I actually found a reasonable cause for optimism in the long term.

The virus spread is phenomenally fast for those reasons Teg mentions, but, there is hope that this virus could† burn itself out by running out of new people to infect, given that people are not reasonably likely to be able to catch it twice.

It can only replicate in humans, or possibly in some animal reservoir. It is not the kind of virus that can lay 'dormant' inside an infected individual, as HIV or herpes can.

People aren't being born fast enough for it to support itself on new 'hosts'.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Morphy
Interfector Viris Spurii
*****
Offline


Checkmate

Posts: 5110
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #80 - Mar 20th, 2020 at 2:59pm
 
wanderer wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 12:27pm:
Morphy wrote on Mar 19th, 2020 at 8:35pm:
Iíve come to the conclusion that test kits, while important for the overall picture, are not going to give the full view of whatís actually going on. If Texas runs 50,000 tests tomorrow and we find actually 20 times as many people have it as we thought that doesnít actually change anything.


What the nature of this virus has done is allowed it to 'get in under the radar' and cook away more or less without any red flags being raised. A lot of what will happen in the next week or so is already baked in.

Keep safe, Morphy.


Thanks Wanderer, you do the same.
Back to top
 

"The problem with democracy is no matter who you vote for the government still gets in."
 
IP Logged
 
Rat Man
Slinging.org Moderator
*****
Offline


Slinging Rocks!

Posts: 11880
New Jersey, USA
Gender: male
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #81 - Mar 20th, 2020 at 3:07pm
 
   This idiotic panic buying is quite annoying and totally unnecessary.  If people would just shop as then normally do there wound be no shortages.  The latest item to be panic bought... distilled water.  Now I can't get distilled water for my CPAP machine.  If you use regular tap water the minerals in it gunk up and destroy the machine.  In the overall scheme of things this is small potatoes but it's still a pain in the rump.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Kick
Interfector Viris Spurii
*****
Offline



Posts: 2708
Finland
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #82 - Mar 20th, 2020 at 4:48pm
 
Teg wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 11:00am:
From a evolutionary perspective (the virus perspective, not the human one), this virus is very good. Low level symptoms in a majority of the cases, infectuous before showing symptoms,


If any of you have played the game Pandemic, where you play as a virus, bacteria or pathogen and attempt to infect and kill the entire human race before a cure can be found or countries shut down their borders, ports and airports, this is the way you win. You start off being highly contagious but with as few symptoms as possible. You fly under the radar and try and get a foothold in every country then unleash the fatal symptoms to rack up the fatalities. Let's hope whoever is playing as coronavirus doesn't get to the second stage...
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
wanderer
Interfector Viris Spurii
*****
Offline



Posts: 1343
Texas
Gender: male
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #83 - Mar 20th, 2020 at 8:35pm
 
A colleague just sent me this blog article which strikes me as summarizing what is going on (it's a very long post) and most particularly he makes the distinction which may be getting missed in all this:

That although we in the West are making all kinds of changes which look vaguely like what China and Korea did, they are actually two entirely different approaches. We are going for 'flatten the curve', the Chinese and Korean aims were entirely different, more a 'stamp it out' approach.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Rat Man
Slinging.org Moderator
*****
Offline


Slinging Rocks!

Posts: 11880
New Jersey, USA
Gender: male
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #84 - Mar 21st, 2020 at 3:59pm
 
The latest items I've discovered in short supply are kibble for dogs and feed for the waterfowl.  I grabbed the last bag of cracked corn at Tractor Supply, the last bag of Taste of the Wild kibble,  and they were out of scratch grains. They were also out of two of the chewy treats I get for the dogs.  I guess eventually people will run out of room to store hoarded items and things will return to normal.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Teg
Funditor
****
Offline



Posts: 992
Central Europe
Gender: male
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #85 - Mar 21st, 2020 at 4:51pm
 
wanderer wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 8:35pm:
We are going for 'flatten the curve'

That policy may change. Time will tell...

wanderer wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 1:02pm:
It can only replicate in humans, or possibly in some animal reservoir. It is not the kind of virus that can lay 'dormant' inside an infected individual, as HIV or herpes can.

Luckily it is like that. Otherwise that would be an even larger issue.

Let's hope for a low mutation rate. My biggest "relief" is that children are not "affected". I hope for widespread imunity in all future generations.

Looking at the numbers from Italy, it reminds us that we got quite good at postponing death. COVID shows us that we are not as good as we thought and now we can't save people, especially the weak ones ... Nature, the cycle of life, is fine though. The young, strong and healthy survive, but reality slaps us quite hard at the moment.

wanderer wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 8:35pm:

Thank you for that one. I read the previous article from the same author.

In parts of the country, Switzerland has now implemented mandatory registration for all people trained in medical care but not working on the job. With the option for subsequent levy. About 1-2 weeks to go before the storm really hits, I guess. Most of my younger colleagues still serving in civil protection and hospital battalions are all mobilized.

Something bothers me on the long term, after COVID will be over:
It's becoming quite obvious that, to effectively act against a virus of this form, quite extreme measures like contact tracking, i.e. personal surveilance, and sequestering is very effective. While I don't mind getting quarantined for a couple weeks/months by order or drafted when it is necessary to protect others, I do mind daily surveilance when it is not necessary. And surveilance as well as sequestering of populations have a significant abuse potential. How can we find a middle ground? How can these things/viewpoints be brought in agreement with my moral ideals? What are our options for the future? And I'm talking worldwide and not just national in this respect.
I have not yet formed an opinion on that matter, and it is quite a delicate one.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts.

Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Kick
Interfector Viris Spurii
*****
Offline



Posts: 2708
Finland
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #86 - Mar 22nd, 2020 at 7:25am
 
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Sarosh
Funditor
****
Offline



Posts: 617
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #87 - Mar 22nd, 2020 at 9:57am
 
Teg wrote on Mar 21st, 2020 at 4:51pm:
I'm curious to hear your thoughts.


maybe we should open another thread. It's a political discussion.
I read somewhere " we are going to see if western individualism can function as well as chinese totalitarianism"
Back to top
 

"The main reason we stop doing something we love is because we forget our love of doing it for enjoyments sake and replace it with the desire to be good at it."
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Teg
Funditor
****
Offline



Posts: 992
Central Europe
Gender: male
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #88 - Mar 22nd, 2020 at 10:47am
 
Sarosh wrote on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 9:57am:
maybe we should open another thread. It's a political discussion.

I'm fine not discussing it here. Everyone who is interested in sharing his thoughts: feel free to send me a PM.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
wanderer
Interfector Viris Spurii
*****
Offline



Posts: 1343
Texas
Gender: male
Re: Coronavirus
Reply #89 - Mar 22nd, 2020 at 5:40pm
 
Teg wrote on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 10:47am:
Sarosh wrote on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 9:57am:
maybe we should open another thread. It's a political discussion.

I'm fine not discussing it here. Everyone who is interested in sharing his thoughts: feel free to send me a PM.


I suppose it is 'political', but is it so in any way the moderators might consider  divisive?

I hope we might be able to hold it above the level of scratching each others eyes out Smiley. The social consequences in the aftermath are surely valid points for discussion.

Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 16
Send Topic Print
(Moderators: Masiakasaurus, Curious Aardvark, Mauro Fiorentini, Rat Man, Bill Skinner, David Morningstar, Chris) - (Moderator Group: Forum Moderator)