wanderer wrote on Mar 17
th, 2020 at 7:20am:
It's more the mental health implications that I think will bite first.
I do strongly agree. If you get confined, make sure to keep communication channels / scheduled chats etc.
wanderer wrote on Mar 17
th, 2020 at 8:00am:
I think the lags will be rather longer than that, but I hope I'm wrong.
The longer, the more dangerous...
The 5 days I quoted have a reason. First, it's an estimate I have seen until people develop symptoms.
Second, if you watch the numbers of new infections in Switzerland:
Max. on 6.3. (Friday) then slow decline, re-max on 13.3. (Friday) then decline (with singularity on 15.3.)
You can interprete this a number of ways:
- We see the work week of the laboratory personel.
- It may imply the people migration from northern Italy (i.e. assumption that no significant domestic spread happened, which is no longer true today). Assuming the virus was transported by people returning from weekend trips to Italy, this would give ~5 days until showing symptoms. Testing on Thursday, positive reported on Friday.
- If it was domestic spread, which it is now, then it's a longer ~7 day incubation period until showing symptoms... Assuming we caught most of the infectous people early at this stage and only a couple "point sources/bursts" happened.
Or it is pure change or any non-obvious cause...
But I assume this "cycle" will wash out very soon. If it doesn't, it's probably the work week.
I agree with your other thoughts... Unfortunately...