NooneOfConsequence wrote on Mar 15
th, 2020 at 9:02am:
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-the-difference-betw...Context: National Review is more conservative than Rush Limbaugh, but they criticize Limbaugh’s message that “this is just politically motivated Anti-Trump hysteria” and actually agree with Bernie Sanders’ assertion when he said 400,000+ could die. It’s a very well reasoned article arguing that the concern is not political but just basic math.
Interesting times indeed.
That's a great article, and picks out the salient points really well. They mention Fauci, and I have to say I think he's been a real star.
He has been really good at emphasizing the uncertainties in dealing with this, and despite efforts from most of the media, and sometime even congress
, he has managed to avoid being trapped into statements that they then turn into polarized party political crap. He's also perhaps lucky that he's not in the firing line for suspicion over messing up the rollout of testing.
I think Sanders is a little over the top, but not perhaps massively so. Paraphrasing the article, rocket science this is not.
1% of the population (of the u.S.) being 3.3 million people - that is what you would expect to lose from this if everyone in the country caught it. So your wiggle room is what proportion of the population actually catch it. The jury is out on that one, but if 10% of the population catch it, then 330,000 deaths is your answer. And heaven knows who has picked out 10% as a good estimate - I don't know.
Also, of course, the 1% death rate is on the basis that the sickest maybe 5-10% get good health care.
UK has announced they are planning 'soon' to have the most vulnerable in the population isolate themselves for several months. That is pretty bad news. It looks like they recognize the disease is out in the wild and pretty much not stoppable, and they are just thinking of having it run its course through the population. Dare I say it, that strategy also doesn't cause as much strain on their economy as having everyone in the country restrict themselves to the degree some countries have (successfully) used.
We do indeed live in interesting times!