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Coronavirus (Read 7243 times)
Morphy
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #30 - Mar 14th, 2020 at 12:06am
 
For better or for worse gentlemen we live in interesting times.  Smiley
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“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”
 
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lobohunter
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #31 - Mar 14th, 2020 at 12:12am
 
Well it's a good time to be alive if your a people watcher
I personally can't wait for the zombies
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Albert Scott C bigbadwolf41 77940+hwy+99+south,+Spc+22  
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wanderer
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #32 - Mar 14th, 2020 at 6:34am
 
Sarosh wrote on Mar 13th, 2020 at 9:58am:
@
wanderer

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

I wish I could go to the mountains for a year. People are really stupid. With quarantine they stop working and instead meet out in playgrounds and coffee shops!
it's game theory 101 and I'm losing to stupid right now , let's hope darwin's theory will turn the tables Tongue


You're welcome  Smiley

Yes, if I had the opportunity nowadays I would be checking my nice old but reliable Tacoma 4x4 and heading out where you don't encounter too many people. Except nowadays it seems you are probably going to find your favorite spot taken over by some 'digital nomad' or other  Wink.

The U.S. has some big advantages over most of Europe in pure geographic and demographic terms. There are plenty of places not really that involved with big flows of people. Even the cities tend to be less dense than Europe, which will probably slow the spread a lot. On the other hand those nice roadside diners are pretty good places for spread, and there's plenty of those nice communities that depend heavily on tourism.

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wanderer
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #33 - Mar 14th, 2020 at 7:11am
 
Kick wrote on Mar 13th, 2020 at 5:11am:
I don't think it's going to get that bad. There was a good point made on Twitter that seeing things getting cancelled and new rules coming in is scary but it shows it's being taken seriously and things are being done to improve the situation. It would be scarier if nothing was being done.


It's not going to get as bad as it might have done, probably. All the evidence is that it affects primarily vulnerable people, and most people will only see the 'inconvenience' to themselves, their businesses, their 401k etc. The people who will see it is carers, nurses, doctors in ICUs, where capacity is far below any ability to cope unless the infection can be slowed and spread out in time. The Washington care homes are cases in point.

The Italian system has been totally overwhelmed, in a way that without some serious measures will happen in other 'advanced' countries as well. No one wants to work in an ICU with the decisions they will have had to have taken.

But the trouble is that when everything is sorted out there will be a whole load of talk about how it was all a great big 'nothing' and it was turned into a panic by some vague cadre of 'experts', who will also be blamed for making 'the wrong decisions'.

The support money that congress is throwing around like water at the moment will dry up, all those specialist staff will be dispersed, research stopped, and we'll all (or most of us) go back to our lives listening to the narrative of our favorite 'news' organization.

I'm maybe coming across a little angry here, but once you've been around the block a few times....
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NooneOfConsequence
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #34 - Mar 15th, 2020 at 9:02am
 
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-the-difference-betw...

Context: National Review is more conservative than Rush Limbaugh, but they criticize Limbaugh’s message that “this is just politically motivated Anti-Trump hysteria” and actually agree with Bernie Sanders’ assertion when he said 400,000+ could die. It’s a very well reasoned article arguing that the concern is not political but just basic math.

Interesting times indeed.
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wanderer
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #35 - Mar 15th, 2020 at 10:29am
 
NooneOfConsequence wrote on Mar 15th, 2020 at 9:02am:
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-the-difference-betw...

Context: National Review is more conservative than Rush Limbaugh, but they criticize Limbaugh’s message that “this is just politically motivated Anti-Trump hysteria” and actually agree with Bernie Sanders’ assertion when he said 400,000+ could die. It’s a very well reasoned article arguing that the concern is not political but just basic math.

Interesting times indeed.


That's a great article, and picks out the salient points really well. They mention Fauci, and I have to say I think he's been a real star.

He has been really good at emphasizing the uncertainties in dealing with this, and despite efforts from most of the media, and sometime even congress  Sad, he has managed to avoid being trapped into statements that they then turn into polarized party political crap. He's also perhaps lucky that he's not in the firing line for suspicion over messing up the rollout of testing.

I think Sanders is a little over the top, but not perhaps massively so. Paraphrasing the article, rocket science this is not.

1% of the population (of the u.S.) being 3.3 million people - that is what you would expect to lose from this if everyone in the country caught it. So your wiggle room is what proportion of the population actually catch it. The jury is out on that one, but if 10% of the population catch it, then 330,000 deaths is your answer. And heaven knows who has picked out 10% as a good estimate - I don't know.

Also, of course, the 1% death rate is on the basis that the sickest maybe  5-10% get good health care.

UK has announced they are planning 'soon' to have the most vulnerable in the population isolate themselves for several months. That is pretty bad news. It looks like they recognize the disease is out in the wild and pretty much not stoppable, and they are just thinking of having it run its course through the population. Dare I say it, that strategy also doesn't cause as much strain on their economy as having everyone in the country restrict themselves to the degree some countries have (successfully) used.

We do indeed live in interesting times!
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #36 - Mar 15th, 2020 at 7:31pm
 
Both Australia and New Zealand have introduced mandatory self isolation of 2 weeks for all people arriving in Australia from international flights.
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NooneOfConsequence
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #37 - Mar 15th, 2020 at 9:47pm
 
For those of you who have nearby neighbors... here’s a suggestion: exchange information (if you haven’t already done that) and make arrangements to pick up supplies for them if you go out. Ask them to do the same for you if they go out. That way, fewer people have to be exposed to the public and you reduce your chances of the virus hitting you or your neighbors.
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #38 - Mar 15th, 2020 at 10:54pm
 
As of today, the chamber of commerce visiter ctr and the public library have been closed in my little town. The govenor has also closed all AZ schools begining tomorrow for a week. And (of course) there is no tp, paper towels, chicken noodle soup or hand sanitizer to be found in any of the stores Huh
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Kick
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #39 - Mar 16th, 2020 at 11:47am
 
Finland will soon be closing it's borders and banning gatherings of more than 10 people. Schools and universities are closing as are libraries and just about everything else. It seems heavy handed when you see that the number of confirmed cases is only 272 in the whole of Finland but it makes sense. Norway, Denmark and Sweden have far more cases and are only just implementing these sorts of measures. Testing is being saved for healthcare personnel and those with clear symptoms so the true number is obviously higher than 272 but is still within controllable numbers I would guess. I expect everything to be locked down tight for a good few weeks (Months? Possibly). Somewhat messes with our plans to get married soon. It wasn't going to be a big wedding but it's still unlikely to be happening really.
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #40 - Mar 16th, 2020 at 12:35pm
 
Switzerland is also closing universities, public shops etc.
People are a bit nervous but in general quite calm. At least the ones I still see  Grin

No curfew as of now.
Companies may stay open, given that distance can be kept.
Starting midnight, it's emergency situation.
8'000 army personel (0.1% of the whole population) may be mobilized for civilian support.

Yeah, we are in for the full ride...
Duration of the ride: 19. April, or further notice.
And I'm going into home office for this time Cheesy. Packing up right now...

Oh yes, I forgot: Now Switzerland has the second highest number of cases per capita. Finally little Switzerland goes big  Grin. Though I fear the backlash a bit...
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Morphy
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #41 - Mar 16th, 2020 at 10:31pm
 
Houston has closed all bars and clubs and all restaurants have been restricted to take out and delivery only. Schools are closed and I hear now that many of the workers of the chemical/oil plants in this area are talking about management getting ready for shut downs. (Needless to say this would not be good!)

Perhaps I should be more worried about the virus but really I am still much more concerned with the economic fallout for all of this. Guess we will see if that sentiment holds true when it really hits hard.

Right now, we only have a handful of cases in the Houston area and we are already seeing massive social/economic change. I try to imagine what it’s going to be like if the virus is not overhyped and we have say several hundred thousand cases in this area.

Here’s an interesting article going over the trends possible with this virus.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/


And here’s a quote straight from the CDC website:

”More cases of COVID-19 are likely to be identified in the United States in the coming days, including more instances of community spread. CDC expects that widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur. In the coming months, most of the U.S. population will be exposed to this virus.

So let’s assume “most” means 75% of 330,000,000 people. That leaves us with 247,000,000 people.

Let’s also assume only 1 in 20 are serious enough to require hospitalization, (both China and Italy have had much higher percentages than that but for the sake of accuracy I’m lowballing.)  That leaves us with 12,350,000 people needing serious care. We have approx. 300,000 open beds at any one time. More than that I am in and out of most major hospitals due to my work and it seems like even adding 3 or 4 new patients on an ICU floor needing a ventilator strains their resources. It’s the things like ventilators that I’m really wondering about even more so than a bed. In pandemic sized outbreaks if we really had to we can convert a cot into a bed. But a vent is a vent. You can’t fake it.
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“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”
 
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Kick
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #42 - Mar 17th, 2020 at 4:35am
 
An Italian hospital ran out of ventilators but managed to bring in a 3D printer and print enough off to "save the day". I think something that will be interesting to see is how society changes after this. How hospitals are supplied and run will be entirely revised in some countries I would imagine. A lot of people could have been working from home for a long time before this happened but it was never tried out. A lot of resources that have been gated off for vague reasons (the real reason of course being obscene profits) are now being opened up with little to no adverse consequences. In this case I'm mostly thinking of internet access, particularly in America. A lot of the arbitrary limits have been removed because apparently the big companies have only just realised that the internet is quite important in this day and age. Almost like a utility that to deprive people of would be morally reprehensible...

Things are changing. Who knows in what direction but 2020 is going to be remembered.
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Teg
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #43 - Mar 17th, 2020 at 4:45am
 
Swiss authorities assume ~70% infection rate, for whatever this number is worth.

First day of home office... it feels rather weird.

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-17453/v1
Letality on the ~1% range overall, with ~0.5% for anyone below 65. Again, numbers may change, not accounting for demographics, previous risks etc.
I'm curious how the infection rates in Italy will develop with the estimated ~5 day lag. The effects in infection numbers should soon become visible in the statistics. Then you can estimate what may happen in the US. Effects of the bans in Austria, Spain, France, Switzerland, etc. should start to show next week, I hope. It's a maths game now.
Death rate may follow with another ~5 day lag or so.
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Teg
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #44 - Mar 17th, 2020 at 4:51am
 
On the bright side: I have never seen that all parties in Switzerland share the same opinion, except now.
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