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Coronavirus (Read 11814 times)
Morphy
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Coronavirus
Mar 11th, 2020 at 10:22pm
 
So I came back in the midst of a very busy time to see all the interesting thoughts and discussions people are having on the Coronavirus and yet I see nothing! Did I miss the thread? Was it too much for the internet? Perhaps an ancient Turkish text prophesied about the end of the world via virus in the year of our Lord 2020?

Or more likely is this just not an interesting subject to people here?† Grin

I will say due to my profession this virus both concerns me and fascinates me. For awhile I considered this could be another overblown media hyped nothing. Then China quarantined a city the size of New York. Still, perhaps this was an excuse to stop the riots?

Then Italy. And now we are seeing the beginning of whispers of quarantine here in America.

Now Iím not saying there isnít a political side to this. There always is regardless of what side you are on. But I no longer think this is all media hype or political spin.

What are your thoughts on it? Do you know the trends that are being floated out there? How fast this is potentially going to spread?

And is this potentially dangerous for the worldwide economy? I think the answer to the last question is a resounding yes. We will see consequences soon enough though.

So, that being said what are your thoughts on this? I assume we are all too practical to be panicking about this but are you concerned and what is your game plan if major quarantines are implemented.
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« Last Edit: Mar 12th, 2020 at 7:04am by Morphy »  

The worst times create the greatest growth. Those beaten down the most eventually become strong enough to lift others up the most.
 
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joe_meadmaker
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #1 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 12:44am
 
Good to see you back Morphy.† I think you're right, there's just been conversation about other things going on. Smiley

To be honest, I haven't got my head wrapped around the whole situation yet.† Panicking is definitely a bad idea, but I think everyone should have at least some concern.† There is definitely going to be global impact.† Where I work we have preparations in place should the need arise for everyone to start working from home.

Just to throw it out there, this is one of the best videos I've seen that just gives a general overall picture of the Coronavirus situation, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts.
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Mersa
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #2 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 1:00am
 
Well after y2k, and the 2012 end of the world did nothing to panic the general public this has definitely made more of a panic in the general public of Australia. At least as I can see.
Of course this is a real thing, but so was sars and the swine flu.
For some reason this has really made a lot of people start ďpreppingĒ. Mass toilet paper stocking seems to be high on these peoples list.  Huh ???????
Now I donít really get that as a thing to stock up on but at least now people are also stocking up on rice and canned food.
Me personally Iím hoping that I donít get the virus and if I do I hope I donít get majorly sick.
As for stocking up on resources Iíll stick to my normal life for the moment. If there is a global recession Iím probably still in a similar position. If it really effected food and water supplies and we went into chaos Iím quite happy to attempt a long backpacking hunt.
Itís no alien invasion or zombie apocalypse but I feel like me having skills in the wilderness will be much more valuable then a few hundred bags of toilet paper.
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Kick
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #3 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 4:40am
 
I was thinking I should start a coronavirus post but put it off. Why did I think I should start it? Because coming back from Mallorca I got a NASTY cold. I was supposed to start back at work two days after coming back, but had to phone and say I couldn't make it in. My boss then said have the rest of the week off, which turned out to be the right decision because I was still sick on Monday. Luckily my next shift was on Wednesday (yesterday) and I was fine. I didn't get tested for COVID-19 but I didn't have a fever or much of a cough, just lots of delightful phlegm. I always pick up something when going through an airport and I went through 4 different airports in 5 days.

From my own experience as a nurse, and sharing a flat with a microbiologist that has been doing a lot of work on viruses recently, it's both worrying and not the End of All Things.

On the worrying side, Spanish Flu killed around 50 million people before commercial flights were even a thing. The Black Death killed a third of Europe when the fastest mode of transport was a horse. The speed that coronavirus has spread is concerning and the number of deaths associated with a novel virus whose virulence isn't completely understood is concerning, but coronavirus isn't Spanish Flu or the Black Death. 1 in 5 people that catch it require hospital care, the elderly and those with underlying conditions (particularly respiratory conditions) are at most risk.

That is where the problem is. It's the strain on hospitals to care for people that is going to be the problem. A lot of people have recovered from the virus with a short stay in hospital and appropriate care, but if 1 in 5 of an entire country's population turn up to their hospitals all at once with difficulty breathing... Yeah... That's going to be bad and that's assuming the other 4 people realise they aren't actually in need of hospital care and shouldn't be at the hospital. Factor in the healthcare provisions of particular countries and there are the ingredients for a major international crisis. The NHS in the UK has been staggering under successive Tory government cuts, the loss of highly skilled personal that left the country due to everything surrounding Brexit and a general burnout of staff from the low pay, high workload and lack of respect afforded them. The US has a for-profit healthcare system that charges for COVID-19 testing (currently in most places) when the people who are most likely to be affected (service industry workers who come into contact with a large number of people daily) are underpaid and unable to take sick days to isolate themselves. Other countries have their own particularities that are also fuel to the fire of a pandemic. I truly believe one of the reasons it's spread like wildfire in Italy is that people are much more comfortable with physical contact. Kissing on the cheek as a greeting and hugging is not just more acceptable, it's expected.

That is the good thing about this virus though, avoiding physical contact and isolating stops it in it's tracks. Encouraging people to do this though is difficult, we've all seen the stories I'm sure of people going to concerts despite being told to quarantine themselves...

People stockpiling toilet paper, food and water are overreacting. I don't think this is going to bring down society as we know it. What it is going to do is make 2020 very difficult and a lot of people are going to suffer. Wash your hands, avoid crowds, quarantine yourself if you've come into contact with someone from an infected area. Don't panic.
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Kick
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #4 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 4:42am
 
This is a pretty interesting constantly updating map of all of the reported coronavirus cases:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?#/bda7594740fd40
299423467b48e9ecf6
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Teg
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #5 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 6:31am
 
Well said kick!
The hardest part is to motivate people to do the small, but effective things (like following the rules). We had a couple of these heroes at work, who returned to work while actually given written order not to do so ... Well ... thinking is hard ...

Regarding stockpile: Have enough food at home for 2 weeks to 1 month in case it gets you. But honestly, I either way have that much at home at any given time...

I took the liberty to fix the very interesting link.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?#/bda7594740fd40...
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Sarosh
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #6 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 6:54am
 
Ignorant people and people who don't care exist, good luck to the rest . Undecided

I expected this virus to spread faster with so many flights compared to the past.

had planned a trip to Italy for 25-3 I believe the flight got cancelled too late . the return flight on 7-4 which is between 2 red zones still remains to be cancelled! They want to hold on money until the last minute!

I'm very afraid of the political side of this . what freedom are we giving up? for how long? who's the judge? who's the enforcer? and who can judge them both? what new laws are being passed behind our backs?
Stigma on people who traveled to red zones or come from them is probably going to create rifts, there is fertile soil for acts of racism .
quarantines are going to be longer than advertised.† At first I thought that the virus was going to burst the current economic bubble, seems that it didn't happen, it is so big that it can buy itself time. Tongue

I was thinking that places with quarantines would get births boost 9 months later but a friend told me that couples are actually breaking up after spending more time together. don't know what to expect.

how big it's gonna get https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg (it depends)

Mersa wrote on Mar 12th, 2020 at 1:00am:
Of course this is a real thing, but so was sars and the swine flu


I got to ask what is the difference between coronavirus all these viruses because I don't remember such measures been taken in the past(maybe I don't remember well). Was there already a vaccine for them?


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Kick
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #7 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 7:28am
 
Thanks for fixing the link Cheesy
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Morphy
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #8 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 9:29am
 
joe_meadmaker wrote on Mar 12th, 2020 at 12:44am:
Good to see you back Morphy.† I think you're right, there's just been conversation about other things going on. Smiley

To be honest, I haven't got my head wrapped around the whole situation yet.† Panicking is definitely a bad idea, but I think everyone should have at least some concern.† There is definitely going to be global impact.† Where I work we have preparations in place should the need arise for everyone to start working from home.

Just to throw it out there, this is one of the best videos I've seen that just gives a general overall picture of the Coronavirus situation, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts.


Yes, and amazingly that video is still trending. I wouldnít be surprised if Joe Rogan consulted with that guy to know about what time the Coronavirus was going to blow up in a big way and then scheduled him right at the start of it. Good timing either way.

The interesting thing about this situation is it shows how delicately balanced our current system is. You close schools to stop the spread and now parents have to take off work to watch the kids. You canít just get daycare because then you have the same problem.

I feel like the two big turning points to this ongoing scenario are going to be massive quarantines and/or the excessive restriction of movement that could potentially seriously harm the global economy (I am actually more concerned about that than I am about getting this disease). And secondly here in America we have around 300000 open hospital beds at any one time. Those beds are going to fill up quick. When they do and we have to triage our patients to a higher standard I think thatís when the death rate could go up dramatically.

Again this is all considering how closely the actual illness mirrors the current numbers and predictions being given by those in the scientific community.
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The worst times create the greatest growth. Those beaten down the most eventually become strong enough to lift others up the most.
 
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Rat Man
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #9 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 12:28pm
 
   Whether or not a competent government response could have stopped or contained the Coronavirus in America is moot at this point. It's here.  Many if not most probably  will get it. 
    People running around punching each other over toilet paper, using weird "cures" like garlic soup, walking around with particulate masks that won't do shit, spraying, wiping, and sanitizing everything on earth, and generally panicking isn't going to help.
     It's here. You might get it.  Let's try to show a little dignity, people.  Looking like total fools won't help.
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Teg
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #10 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 4:47pm
 
Oh, the irony....† Grin I nearly got quarantined literally 30 min after I wrote the last post. First case 50 m down the hall way and a bunch of people in quarantine/home office. I was not in contact with that person luckily.

Morphy, you asked for the game plan. It is, in short, continue "as usual", but prepare for home office/online interactions. All conferences and meeting are cancelled until further notice. Yeah, it's going to be a bumpy ride, but I don't expect breakdown of public live, supplies etc.
The healthcare system? Not so sure about that to be honest...

Expectations for me: Wash hands regularly and work until I get sick or quarantined (50% chance). I'm most probably going to be allright. Young and healthy. Stay at home for about two weeks, then go to work again. Nevertheless, social events and family visits are currently cancelled for me.
Expectations for the economy: Oh my dear, it's going to get rough...
Expectations for the population: sorry guys... some people will suffer, some people will die.
Expectations for the world: This flu is now going once through the population. It seems too widespread to stop. I'm just not sure how fast it will go and with what effect...
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Kick
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #11 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 5:08pm
 
...and panic buying has started in Finland. Started a few hours I got back from the shop. Unfortunately I wasn't buying 1kg of rice but some small pointless things. Probably should have thought that one through a bit better... Let's hope there's... something to buy tomorrow...
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Morphy
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #12 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 7:45pm
 
So we just got back from Sams Club and the rumors are true. In that massive warehouse of a store the toliet paper, water and a bunch of other stuff has been cleaned out. And this whole thing is literally just beginning here in America so thatís slightly concerning.

Teg, Iím glad thatís an option for you. I would hate to see anyone get sick especially our members here. Due to the fact that I work in EMS I have already resigned myself to the fact that I will probably get this. Since people can be highly infectious and have no symptoms whatsoever there is zero chance I can avoid it. I am relatively young and fit though so I will hope the old immune system can fight it off if and when it happens. I am glad to hear that it seems to not affect children much. I donít care if I get it but I certainly wouldnít want it to pass to my daughter.
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The worst times create the greatest growth. Those beaten down the most eventually become strong enough to lift others up the most.
 
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NooneOfConsequence
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #13 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 9:22pm
 
1.Morphy?! Youíre alive!
2. Itís interesting to listen to the subtext of conversations. I was talking to a cashier at a grocery store today who was clearly trying to convince himself that thereís nothing to worry about. The words were the same ďnothing to worry aboutĒ phrases everyoneís been repeating for a while, but the words are getting less convincing. Heís been watching the panic slowly rise for weeks, and I think heís going to start worrying about himself pretty soon.  A lot of people are, and thatís scarier than the virus to me. 
3. This may not be the apocalypse, but I think itís going to be uncomfortable for everyone for a little while. Nobody knows what effect this will have. The world is so interdependent that the travel restrictions might have a huge downstream effect on availability of goods.
4. Time to invest in some VR goggles, because thatís the only way to get front row to any major spectator event
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ďMy final hour is at hand. We face an enemy more numerous and cunning than the world has yet seen. Remember your training, and do not fear the hordes of Judas. I, without sin, shall cast the first stone. That will be your sign to attack! But you shall not fight this unholy enemy with stones. No! RAZOR GLANDES!† Aim for the eyes! May the Lord have mercy, for we shall show none!ď† -Jesus the Noodler
 
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NooneOfConsequence
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Re: Coronavirus
Reply #14 - Mar 12th, 2020 at 9:27pm
 
Kick wrote on Mar 12th, 2020 at 5:08pm:
...and panic buying has started in Finland. Started a few hours I got back from the shop. Unfortunately I wasn't buying 1kg of rice but some small pointless things. Probably should have thought that one through a bit better... Let's hope there's... something to buy tomorrow...


The city told teachers in San Antonio today to prepare for two-week quarantines. Finland may be different, but around here, 1kg of rice probably isnít going to cut it. I hope nothing crazy happens but fear seems to be taking over, and if that turns into panic, then the virus is not going to be the only problem.
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ďMy final hour is at hand. We face an enemy more numerous and cunning than the world has yet seen. Remember your training, and do not fear the hordes of Judas. I, without sin, shall cast the first stone. That will be your sign to attack! But you shall not fight this unholy enemy with stones. No! RAZOR GLANDES!† Aim for the eyes! May the Lord have mercy, for we shall show none!ď† -Jesus the Noodler
 
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