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Very Quiet Hurricane Season (Read 523 times)
Rat Man
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Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Aug 4th, 2018 at 3:06am
 
   So far the Atlantic Hurricane Season has been strangely quiet. There's not a hint of anything going on. This makes me very suspicious. Like there's a big surprise coming.
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Bill Skinner
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #1 - Aug 4th, 2018 at 8:38am
 
Predicting hurricanes isn't a science yet.  In spite of what a lot of forecasters would like you to believe.

Still lots more we don't know about weather than what we do know.

We are still limited to about a week or maybe a little longer.  Remember when the Farmers Almanac predicted a blizzard at the Super Bowl several months out.  And were correct.  Up until the event, college educated forecasters and weathermen were making fun of the predictions.  Then the blizzard hit.

And people found out that the Farmers Almanac had a slightly better record at predicting long term weather trends than the NOAA. Grin
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Rat Man
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #2 - Aug 6th, 2018 at 1:13pm
 
Bill;
   You might recall that a few years ago I thought I'd devised an accurate system of predicting Atlantic hurricanes based on Antarctic waves moving up through Africa and combining with those moving east to west across the continent.  It worked  like a charm... for just one year.  There are just too many variables that can ruin such a neat little system.  Now I just sit and watch like everyone else.
    I've always read the Farmers Almanac.  It's as good as anything else for long range forecasting.
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Bill Skinner
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #3 - Aug 7th, 2018 at 1:24pm
 
Exactly. 

The program NOAA is presently using came out of the University of Colorado.  One year they predicted lots and lots of hurricanes while the NOAA's model said a very weak year.  UofC was correct, so the NOAA has been using that one ever  since.  Unfortunately, it hasn't been much of an improvement over the old model.  It was really right.  For one year. 

So, you are in good company.
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Rat Man
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #4 - Aug 15th, 2018 at 1:00pm
 
   It's mid August and there's still not a hint of any activity.  Very weird.  I'm not complaining. Hurricanes are big, humid, destructive messes that can knock out power for weeks and spawn tornadoes.  But it makes me very wary.
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #5 - Aug 15th, 2018 at 5:20pm
 
Rat Man wrote on Aug 15th, 2018 at 1:00pm:
   It's mid August and there's still not a hint of any activity.  Very weird.  I'm not complaining. Hurricanes are big, humid, destructive messes that can knock out power for weeks and spawn tornadoes.  But it makes me very wary.


You're not kidding... Grin Grin Grin

So I don't know if I ever mentioned this but the Saturday night when Harvey was really cooking down here in Houston it was almost surreal the degree of lightning we had. Imagine when you're driving down the street and you see a fairly close lightning bolt hit the ground with the resulting thunder. That's a jarring experience right?

That Saturday night we were having multiple close lightning strikes every 5-10 seconds for about 6-8 hours straight. I know that sounds like a total exaggeration but it was that bad. Now part of that time I feel asleep but the tornado warning was going off on my phone every 15 minutes so I would wake up quite a bit and it would be still going on. It was just unreal.

I lived in Dallas for years which is right in tornado alley so I thought I had seen it all. But apparently not. That was the craziest weather I have ever seen.

Don't want to jinx it but the weather this summer has been sublime. Hopefully Mother Nature takes a break.
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #6 - Aug 20th, 2018 at 9:05am
 
Bill Skinner wrote on Aug 4th, 2018 at 8:38am:
Predicting hurricanes isn't a science yet. 


I would argue that science actually explains exactly why you can’t predict hurricanes. Between the butterfly effect and Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, physics has already defined limits of what can be known according to current physics theories, and the difference between hurricanes and a gentle breeze cannot be predicted by watching the weather weeks in advance unless someone comes up with a new version of physics.
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #7 - Aug 20th, 2018 at 9:47am
 
What's not up to par is our understanding of cause and effect that results in a hurricane, a tropical storm or just some bad weather that just peters out before making landfall.

Nor do we understand why some pulses develop and some under almost the same conditions, don't.

The data is probably already there, our being able to put it all together, isn't.
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Bill Skinner
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #8 - Sep 9th, 2018 at 9:46am
 
Well, it looks like hurricane season has finally started.  Are you ready, Rat Man?
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Rat Man
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #9 - Sep 11th, 2018 at 6:01pm
 
As ready as I'm going to be.  Florence is a monster.  She may hit as a Category 5.  Right now she's forecasted to make landfall somewhere in the Carolinas but we all know that hurricanes don't always do what they're supposed to.  Even if she does hit the Carolinas first she will still greatly impact our weather here in Jersey.  We are still getting rained on from the remains of Gordon so we are extremely saturated.  I went shopping today.  There are still a few little preparations to do if it looks like she's going to rock us here but mostly I'm ready. 
Helene looks like a dud. Isaac is taking the southern route in.  It's too soon to tell where he's headed as far as the U.S. goes. 
   Speaking of weather, I'm predicting a cold Winter for the Northeast based on Pandora's coat.  Pandora is a Husky for those who don't know. When she did her second blow late in the Summer last year it was huge.  This year she has a lot of coat left.  It's not much to go on but it's all I have so far this year. That's Pandora below.
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #10 - Oct 10th, 2018 at 1:07pm
 
Y'all are fixing to get some rain.
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Re: Very Quiet Hurricane Season
Reply #11 - Oct 10th, 2018 at 9:30pm
 
I was supposed to do some work in South Georgia next week... and all our equipment is being stored in a big tent!  That ought to be interesting.
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