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Prediction Comes True!!!! (Read 4315 times)
Mauro Fiorentini
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #15 - Dec 7th, 2016 at 6:50am
 
All this, and?

Italy is once more without government  Cheesy

Ok we're used to it - we've had 64 governments since the Republic was founded 70 years ago, it's not even 1 gov a year.

So don't worry, it can't rain forever  Grin
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Like! Smiley https://www.facebook.com/Arte-Picena-238289793027749/timeline/
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Mauro.

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Morphy
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #16 - Dec 7th, 2016 at 9:10am
 
I don't think the elected officials are out of touch with their constituents, that's giving them far too much credit. They know exactly what their voters want. We know they do because they know what to promise to get elected. Once elected they simply do whatever the hell they want.

One side promises things which are clearly unsustainable and can only lead to some degree of tyranny and eventual collapse, while the other promises to be the responsible alternative and screws over the public every chance they get.

Both sides are playing off laudable concepts. Mercy and idealism on the liberal side, responsibility and realism on the conservative side. But it's all a farce since at the top neither side is really interested in fixing anything.
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Bill Skinner
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #17 - Dec 7th, 2016 at 10:27am
 
Morphy, you are correct again and worded it well.

It's not just the US, it's happening all over the world.  The peasants are not voting the way they are being told to vote.

It actually seems to be a rural/urban split.  The urbanits can no longer make ethnic, gay or racial jokes, but it doesn't offend any of their sensibilities to make fun of the people living in small towns and the country. 

People in cities tend to be better educated, have more money and have a much different view of society and government.  People in the country tend to have less formal education, have less money but more assets and generally want the government to leave them alone.

So, when it comes time to vote, they voted for some one who was despised by the sophisticated, urban types.  He was more in line with their ideas of government and they got to stick it to the people in the cities, too.
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perpetualstudent
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #18 - Dec 7th, 2016 at 10:37am
 
Masiakasaurus wrote on Dec 6th, 2016 at 11:55pm:
Populism, at least how I'm using it, is a sort of classism in which the populace feel as though the political class do not represent them. Not so much class struggle between the haves and the have-nots, but friction between out-of-touch elected officials and the interests of the average American.


I've not run across that definition. The meaning I've inferred from context is as a perjorative and an implication that it is something that is popular but uncouth. Something along the lines "reality TV", we all know it sucks but we also all know that "the people" like it. Webster's agrees with your definition, but Merriam Webster has a softer definition where populism is the belief in the wisdom of the common people without the class struggle.

If we use your definition though, that recognizes a distinction between a ruling class and subjects.  And that, I've come to believe, is a distinctly unamerican view of the world.

It's funny I've been listening to "A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court" and the revulsion and hostility the American harbors for the aristocracy is fascinating. I think Twain hit the nail on the head there it's part of our national character to reject being ruled by "our betters". The American ideal was certainly to send our best to represent us- but we rejected the idea that being "the best" was a matter of breeding and formal education.

I also recently read "swiss watching" which is a fascinating book written by a Brit who lives in Switzerland and his observations of this other culture. It was eye opening to see his distaste of the Swiss Republic's politics. He didn't like the Canton that voted in public, literally standing for your vote. He didn't like the referendums where the people passed legislation through direct vote. He didn't like the referendums where the people rejected the Legislature's laws. He didn't like the system of Federalism where popular vote AND canton approval had to go hand in hand. So while he claimed to love "democracy" he didn't. He didn't even approve of republicanism- what he believed in (and I don't think it's conscious for him) was in letting his betters decide what was best, and agreeing with it. I was surprised by the strength of my reaction to that. It legitimately made me angry and it was reading Twain after that that made me realize "it's because you're an American". I think that has been diluted (I doubt the Kennedy family would have pulled off in the 1860s what they did in the 1960s) but it's still there. We don't think that our elected officials ought be a distinct group, we think they ought to be indistinguishable from us.

Masiakasaurus wrote on Dec 6th, 2016 at 11:55pm:
There's clearly a voting bloc in the GOP that rejects the mainstream candidates for being too disconnected and also rejects conventional GOP market deregulation/trade policies. I'm choosing to call them Alt-right because that's how Breitbart News self-identifies these days
Admittedly I don't go to Breitbart so you could be right that protectionist economics and anger at the "establishment" is the group that self-identifies as "alt-right". But really I'm hard pressed to find conservatives that don't think that the "establishment" is a problem. And to be fair to both sides the left feels just as betrayed. The Dems are always theoretically protectionist, but more free trade stuff seems to get passed no matter which side is in office. The GOp is theoretically for smaller government but, again, government expands under both parties. I think that's why so many people (left and right) agree with Morphy and Bill and are willing to back darkhorses.
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"Facts stand wholly outside our gates; they are what they are, and no more;they know nothing about themselves and they pass no judgement upon themselves. What is it, then, that pronounces the judgement? Our own guide and ruler, Reason."
 
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Masiakasaurus
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #19 - Dec 8th, 2016 at 4:45pm
 
I agree that we Americans don't want a ruling elite. Populism is actively fighting against that because our politicians are serving their own interests instead of the people. And then there are the people that don't think that there is a corrupt ruling class. The tea party was a grassroots, populist movement that opposed the democratic socialism of the left (Sanders), the neoliberalism of the center/center-left (Bill Clinton), and the neoconservatism of the center-right (Bush/McCain). They tended toward stronger economic conservatism and more market deregulation as a reaction to the raising of the US debt ceiling. That's me. The alt-right is a similar populist movement, but it's less libertarian and less fiscally conservative. Rather, it's nationalist in its protectionism -in reaction to the decline of American manufacturing, globalization in the form of trade deals, and anti-American sentiment abroad- and more socially conservative, but conservative in a different sort of way than the Christian Right is. There's less of an emphasis on traditional morality and more of a reaction to the process that's turning political incorrectness into thoughtcrime.

I'm definitely not in the alt-right, but I'm not using the term negatively. I believe that they do bring up valid criticisms and I don't include neo-Nazis in the definition as many on the left do.
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Pikåru wrote on Nov 19th, 2013 at 6:59pm:
Massi - WTF? It's called a sling. You use it to throw rocks farther and faster than you could otherwise. That's all. 
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Curious Aardvark
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #20 - Dec 9th, 2016 at 7:25am
 
you don't perhaps think that trump was elected because people had seen him on the telly ?

Which is probably the real definition of 'populism'.

The way i look at it now: it's done. The rest of the world can now sit back and gasp in horror when he does something completely moronic and laugh hilariously at the mess he makes of the american economy.
While keeping our fingers crossed that our own bunch of moronic politicians actually do something right, every once in a while. 
I know it's a poor hope - but hope's all we've got left.
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Do All things with Honour and Generosity: Regret Nothing, Envy None, Apologise Seldom and Bow your head to No One  - works for me Smiley
 
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Bill Skinner
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #21 - Dec 9th, 2016 at 8:22am
 
Every notice how every politician says he is going to change things?  And uses the hopes and fears of the electorate to get the votes he or she needs to win the election?

Hop and Change have been a staple political line for a long time.

And don't believe much of the horror stories from main stream media about Trump, over here, they are basically propaganda arms of the political parties.

I plan to wait and see.

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walter
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #22 - Dec 9th, 2016 at 9:21pm
 
All we can do is wait and see
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #23 - Dec 10th, 2016 at 10:28pm
 
I notice a lot of americans really care more about the local elections, nationals are just a sport for them Smiley.
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Bill Skinner
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #24 - Dec 11th, 2016 at 9:24am
 
If you look at the numbers, more Americans vote for national elections than they do for local.

Turn out for both is pretty poor, with only around 50-60% of registered voters actually voting in national elections, and only around 40% in local.  And only about 50-60% of people are actually registered to vote.

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Morphy
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #25 - Dec 11th, 2016 at 10:27pm
 
Gentlemen, this current bull market rally has me very worried.  Huh

I hope I am wrong about my prediction. I do not necessarily think the upcoming  market crash will be all Trump's fault but I do think it's coming. And it's going to be big. 

Any predictions on the market from you guys? I'm thinking within 4 years. I could be wrong. I do believe it is absolutely inevitable that within 10 years we will have a massive stockmarket crash. Probably bigger than any other. Sorry to sound so dire. What do you guys think?
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perpetualstudent
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #26 - Dec 12th, 2016 at 9:29am
 
I tend to think that our current economic system is unsustainable and at some point it will alter fundamentally but when that will happen I don't know.

One thing I've come to believe though is that success in the current situation and success if something horrible happens constitute a zero sum game. The better off you are now, the worse you will be if the game changes. The better off you'd be if there's a societal collapse, the worse you're doing now. So how much you want to hedge?

The answer I've wound up on is choose hobbies that are both enjoyable and would be useful. Gardening, Fermentation, Food preservation, collecting hand tools, hunting, shooting, casting.

at my most pessimistic and conspiracy theory friendly, I worry about a civil war more than economic collapse. We're losing/have lost the center and for the first time in my lifetime, we've graduated from disturbances/protests to riots. One of the more disturbing things from Pew's study was that right now we have more objections to marrying outside our political tribe than we do marrying outside our religion. That kind of thing worries me.
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"Facts stand wholly outside our gates; they are what they are, and no more;they know nothing about themselves and they pass no judgement upon themselves. What is it, then, that pronounces the judgement? Our own guide and ruler, Reason."
 
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Masiakasaurus
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #27 - Dec 12th, 2016 at 5:47pm
 
I'm right there with you.
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Pikåru wrote on Nov 19th, 2013 at 6:59pm:
Massi - WTF? It's called a sling. You use it to throw rocks farther and faster than you could otherwise. That's all. 
~Engineers like to solve problems. If there are no problems handily avialable, they will create their own problems.~
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Morphy
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #28 - Dec 13th, 2016 at 9:58am
 
The two aren't mutually exclusive to be sure. Especially with so much tension between "groups". Everyone seems to be lumped into a group for which they can claim some sort of victimhood. Whether they want to be or not. The idea of another civil war sounds unlikely at first but tensions in America are at least as high as they were in the 60s and without the stabilizing foundations of common moral values, it's probably much worse than the 60s. Moral relativism and political correctness I see as a big problem. Throw in a major economic event, terrorist attack or cyber attack and civil war would not actually be too big a leap to make.

I see the economic event as most likely mainly because with our fiat system it's essentially unavoidable. It happens in relatively predictable cycles. But the previous cycle, rather than letting the bubble burst we propped up the system with bailouts. And without the M3 report that the Fed did away with in '05 ( why exactly would the Fed not want people to know how much money is being printed? cue conspiracy theme music) we could be standing at the edge of a cliff at night and not know it.
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Masiakasaurus
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Re: Prediction Comes True!!!!
Reply #29 - Dec 13th, 2016 at 2:23pm
 
If you're interested in reading up on how/why we're so divided, google cliodynamics. It's the idea that civil unrest comes in predictable waves in a regular cycle. Some people think it's bunk, so people think it's just taking a few sciences and combining them with history to look at the big picture. http://www.nature.com/news/human-cycles-history-as-science-1.11078
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Pikåru wrote on Nov 19th, 2013 at 6:59pm:
Massi - WTF? It's called a sling. You use it to throw rocks farther and faster than you could otherwise. That's all. 
~Engineers like to solve problems. If there are no problems handily avialable, they will create their own problems.~
WWW elsabio04  
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