Slinging.org Forum - We are sheep =D

Atlatlista

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Re: We are sheep =D
Reply #45 - Jun 20^th, 2012, 9:41pm

Quote from Bikewer on Jun 20^th, 2012, 5:21pm:

Crime statistics from the FBI and the Uniform Crime Reports database shows a steady decrease in most all felonious crimes for about as long as they've been keeping records.

Of course, these agencies would be part of any conspiracy... Roll Eyes

Steven Pinker has recently written a book on this topic, The Better Angels Of Our Nature. He too maintains that we are gradually becoming "better" as societies than at any previous time in history.

Absolutely. And I would add to Perpetual Student that there are crime cases and homicide reports in other countries dating back hundreds of years. England has had a very centralized government since the Norman conquest and you can look up homicide cases dating back to the 13th century in London if you want. Similarly, Victorian records in England were quite good, even by modern standards.

The current FBI statistics are unambiguous. Crime has been in constant decline for the last century. In the US, reports earlier than a century ago are hard to come by, but if you move over to England, you can chart the same steady decline over a much longer period of time - some 800 years. I'll have to track it down but I did have a book at one point that mentioned comparative crime rates in England, and the differences were staggering. Murder was something like 10x more frequent in the 19th century in London when compared to today, and if you go back to the Elizabethan period, I think it's like 30x more frequent. Again, it was some time ago, so I'll have to dig up the source, but the data is certainly there for anyone who has an interest.

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Atlatlista

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Re: We are sheep =D
Reply #46 - Jun 20^th, 2012, 9:48pm

Quote from Little on Jun 20^th, 2012, 4:21pm:

Quote from Morphy on Jun 20^th, 2012, 2:09pm:

Well, I can't keep up a debate on this seeing as I rarely get on here, but here's my take, although many of you already know it. But I do believe there is a conspiracy going on to bring about a one world government, police force, money system etc and to destroy sovereignty at the national and state levels. Essentially to put a few in power over the many. Most of the elites these days openly admit to working towards those ends and the skeptics of decades past used to laugh at the very thought of what is openly admitted by them now. The only difference is now the elite believe they are so close to their end goal that there is not as much need to hide it.

It's true that such a large conspiracy would be impossible to keep under raps completely. Which is exactly why it's known about, so that argument doesn't really hold water. It's also true that it would be impossible to force such a conspiracy on the people unawares without us doing our part. Thankfully for them, we do. We are trained from the time we are young to laugh at the word conspiracy. Like Pavlov and his dogs we are trained to immediately shut down critical thinking or true open mindedness to the other side of the argument as soon as it's comes under the label of conspiracy. We tell ourselves we are open minded but we are bias and fallible human beings. We respond with derision and mocking or anger and apathy. We are absolutely trained to do this in our present day society. Just look in movies where you get constant references to tin foil hats and the like. If you want to see if you are really trained, just wait a few months until this thread is forgotten. Wait until you hear the word conspiracy or something related to it and see what your first gut reaction is to that word before you hear any of the details from either side of the debate. Were you open minded about it? Did you actually do your homework and look deeply and thoughtfully into both sides of the argument? Or did you immediately disregard it as quackery and nonsense? At some point a few months from now you will have this gut reaction and then I'm betting that a few of you at least will realize your immediate knee jerk reaction was exactly as I am saying it will be. A complete shut down of any open mindedness to the possibility of a conspiracy. And that's exactly as it's been programmed to be. And exactly how I used to be as well.

That's not to say there isn't a lot of bogus conspiracies, because there absolutely is. The key thing to understand is that your reaction to that word and concept in general is very much a planned response. The very idea that we do not live in a world full of conspiracies, what with the govt. constantly getting caught doing things they aren't supposed to makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Yet people are trained to respond immediately unfavorably to that word as if the very idea of even one conspiracy existing is ludicrous.

And I'm done. Here's your soap box back...

Oh, and Student, well said, as usual on that earlier post. And lets just hope we are not the Jews this time...

its this, no conspiracy its the truth
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dmPchuXIXQ

Conspiracy creates an instant negative gut reaction in educated people because it's ridiculous, like the video shown above.

What is it with people devouring these short youtube videos like they're some sort of gospel truth? There is no worse way to get real information. You don't have enough time to discuss nuances. You don't have sources cited. You have nowhere to go for further research. There is no fact-checking and no editing. The whole process is designed to produce ludicrous films, devoid of any facts, but which are difficult for the public at large to question without real research. Since most people don't want to do real research, it's taken at face value. It's loose change all over again. Complete nonsense. You'd be better off basing your opinions on posts from 4Chan.

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perpetualstudent

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Re: We are sheep =D
Reply #47 - Jun 20^th, 2012, 10:17pm

I'm sorry Bikewer, but you are incorrect. We have seen increases and decreases in crime over the last century. Wikipedia's first graph, is concurrent with the plethora of graphs I've seen charting crime rates http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States Please note the major increases up to the early 90's, though we have seen a marked decline since then. Murder does stay pretty constant but violent crimes had a huge boom.

And as I said, these are useful for noting trends within short periods, but the objective numbers nobody knows. To say nothing of the issues with reporting the actual crimes to the police, the FBI doesn't gather statistics it relies on individual law enforcement agencies to submit their data. For a couple of years, due to bureaucratic issues, FL didn't have any murders according the UCR. Most researchers extrapolate what they should have been and use that for statistical purposes. The FBI doesn't have the authority to require them to report, they bribe them with grants if they submit the paperwork. Which many officers have admitted then get filed shoddily or inaccurately (the city of chicago got caught fudging the numbers badly in the 90's by independent researchers). There isn't the capacity or the will to double check in most instances. Again, these are useful data sources but have very large limitations as I drill into my students heads.

I really would need to see a source on this because the data, even for murder (one of our 'best' crimes for actually getting data) is difficult to obtain and interpret. Yes there are crime records but the question of accuracy is a huge one. To say nothing of issues once you begin comparing country to country data. Sticking with murder, do honor killings count as murder or justifiable homicide? More importantly, how does that country count it? I do not mean to be rude or disrespectful but based on my reading in the field these macro level declines are based on very shakey data and analyses. It is not wise to put too much stock in them.

I need to read Pinker's book, it's on my extensive to read list, but I imagine he and I are going to have issues with data and interpretation as well. To be perfectly blunt, a large amount of current research on crime is crap because of crappy data. The further back you the data doesn't get any better.

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Atlatlista

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Re: We are sheep =D
Reply #48 - Jun 21^st, 2012, 6:25am

It does matter what you're tracking. Looking at indictable homicide in the UK gives a century-long upward trend, the opposite of what my other sources have told me. So, perhaps it's one of those things where statistics can tell you whatever you want to hear. That having been said, I think people are definitely safer than they were a thousand years ago, or two thousand years ago. Statistics may not be there for it, but textual sources give a great deal of information concerning the levels of violence people were forced to contend with in those times. This is especially true for women. Rape wasn't understood as a crime in times past the way it is today. Honor killings were more widely practiced. Sources repeatedly mention places that were "so safe a woman could walk down the street alone." Imagine a world in which most places are not that safe. It's very different from the world of modern America.

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jlasud

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Re: We are sheep =D
Reply #49 - Jun 21^st, 2012, 7:02am

Quote from Atlatlista on Jun 21^st, 2012, 6:25am:

It does matter what you're tracking. Looking at indictable homicide in the UK gives a century-long upward trend, the opposite of what my other sources have told me. So, perhaps it's one of those things where statistics can tell you whatever you want to hear. That having been said, I think people are definitely safer than they were a thousand years ago, or two thousand years ago. Statistics may not be there for it, but textual sources give a great deal of information concerning the levels of violence people were forced to contend with in those times. This is especially true for women. Rape wasn't understood as a crime in times past the way it is today. Honor killings were more widely practiced. Sources repeatedly mention places that were "so safe a woman could walk down the street alone." Imagine a world in which most places are not that safe. It's very different from the world of modern America.

Hmm,valid point,but without specifying the time period,and place,and the society,people living there,it may be very true,or a entirely different picture. But generally,personally,i'd think there was more violence manifested,than today in more developed countries.

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Bikewer

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Re: We are sheep =D
Reply #50 - Jun 21^st, 2012, 7:52am

Spikes in numbers like homicide rates usually indicate localized situations rather than broad societal trends.

It's well-known that the "drug wars" in several major cities in the nineties skewed numbers wildly, yet the crimes were almost all involved with internicene warfare between drug-trade gangs.
Here in St. Louis, we have a relatively high homicide rate...Again confined to a small area of the "North Side" and gang activity.
One police commander said that if he could make one street in his district dissapear, the murder rate would drop by half.
Overall, the "greater St. Louis" area is remarkably safe.

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perpetualstudent

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Re: We are sheep =D
Reply #51 - Jun 21^st, 2012, 9:00am

You raise a valid point about national level statistics. What are they actually describing? Is there an average of the fifty states that is meaningful? Are the regional subcultures, or the more widespread subcultures that exceed those limitations more important? Should we really be standardizing based on population instead of areas? Doesn't matter really, both lead you astray. Per capita means that nowhere Nebraska (passed through there a time or two Wink

) with one murder in 20 years, in that year has a higher per capita murder rate than DC. Zeroed on areas and hospitals are some of the most dangerous places to be. Use both and all of a sudden your answers about whether cities or rural areas are safer have mixed results. But if you are looking for a nationwide, even worldwide, trend the per capita national average is one of your best tools. If you dismiss it then you get the same problem that international researchers do when they compare the US only to advanced western nations and omit Russia, China, Africa and most of the rest of Asia. Then you're cherry picking your data to an unacceptable degree. All of which should just convince you there isn't a nice simple answer that can be easily demonstrated.

In general, it is safer now than it has been in our past for many reasons. Adequate food and pest control, better living conditions and medical care, but I think in general it is environmental effects. Not human nature or genetics changing. I think you take away our plush standard of living, let Americans taste real hunger and the violent crime spike in the last few decades will look like a minor swell. Take a look at most of the areas the research omits (sometimes with good reason) and you see the darker side of human nature just as active as it was in the older "more dangerous" times. But this is a fundamentally philosophical question. Data, particularly as questionable as they are now and historically, cannot offer a concrete answer to it. Rarely, if ever, can data answer philosophical questions.

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Pikåru

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Re: We are sheep =D
Reply #52 - Jun 21^st, 2012, 10:14am

Numbers don't lie, but statisticians do. There's a vast difference between numbers reported vs. the numbers of actual events. You can't know the actual numbers of crimes because only the crimes that are reported are the one's counted. You can't measure something that is not known, that's called a guess and an "educated" guess is still a guess. Every day I deal with numbers, statistics, educated guesses and those who slant each towards their own goals and agendas.

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HurlinThom

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Re: We are sheep =D
Reply #53 - Jun 21^st, 2012, 12:32pm

All this talk about statistics reminds me of a joke, which I'll condense. A company had a position to fill that required a non-specific advanced college degree. The finalists were a doctor, an attorney, and a CPA. The interviewees were given a final question that determined which would get the job. The question was "what's two plus two?". The doctor replied Four, of course. The attorney said "Not for attribution, but it should be somewhere between three and five". The CPA said "How much do you want it to be?"

In agreement with Atlatlista, the Internet is an amazing means of disseminating misinformation, disinformation, distortions, and outright lies.

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Morphy

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Re: We are sheep =D
Reply #54 - Jul 8^th, 2012, 2:14pm

Quote from Atlatlista on Jun 20^th, 2012, 9:48pm:

Quote from Little on Jun 20^th, 2012, 4:21pm:

Quote from Morphy on Jun 20^th, 2012, 2:09pm:

Well, I can't keep up a debate on this seeing as I rarely get on here, but here's my take, although many of you already know it. But I do believe there is a conspiracy going on to bring about a one world government, police force, money system etc and to destroy sovereignty at the national and state levels. Essentially to put a few in power over the many. Most of the elites these days openly admit to working towards those ends and the skeptics of decades past used to laugh at the very thought of what is openly admitted by them now. The only difference is now the elite believe they are so close to their end goal that there is not as much need to hide it.

It's true that such a large conspiracy would be impossible to keep under raps completely. Which is exactly why it's known about, so that argument doesn't really hold water. It's also true that it would be impossible to force such a conspiracy on the people unawares without us doing our part. Thankfully for them, we do. We are trained from the time we are young to laugh at the word conspiracy. Like Pavlov and his dogs we are trained to immediately shut down critical thinking or true open mindedness to the other side of the argument as soon as it's comes under the label of conspiracy. We tell ourselves we are open minded but we are bias and fallible human beings. We respond with derision and mocking or anger and apathy. We are absolutely trained to do this in our present day society. Just look in movies where you get constant references to tin foil hats and the like. If you want to see if you are really trained, just wait a few months until this thread is forgotten. Wait until you hear the word conspiracy or something related to it and see what your first gut reaction is to that word before you hear any of the details from either side of the debate. Were you open minded about it? Did you actually do your homework and look deeply and thoughtfully into both sides of the argument? Or did you immediately disregard it as quackery and nonsense? At some point a few months from now you will have this gut reaction and then I'm betting that a few of you at least will realize your immediate knee jerk reaction was exactly as I am saying it will be. A complete shut down of any open mindedness to the possibility of a conspiracy. And that's exactly as it's been programmed to be. And exactly how I used to be as well.

That's not to say there isn't a lot of bogus conspiracies, because there absolutely is. The key thing to understand is that your reaction to that word and concept in general is very much a planned response. The very idea that we do not live in a world full of conspiracies, what with the govt. constantly getting caught doing things they aren't supposed to makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Yet people are trained to respond immediately unfavorably to that word as if the very idea of even one conspiracy existing is ludicrous.

And I'm done. Here's your soap box back...

Oh, and Student, well said, as usual on that earlier post. And lets just hope we are not the Jews this time...

its this, no conspiracy its the truth
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dmPchuXIXQ

Conspiracy creates an instant negative gut reaction in educated people because it's ridiculous, like the video shown above.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/Story?id=92662&page=1#.T_nMQ_V_lLY

You're right, 'Lista... Our government would never contemplate lying or murdering Americans for their own agendas...To draw us into wars etc... Huh

Ok, sarcasm aside, . it makes me wonder how many of these things remain secret for every one we know about.

By the way... if all the Joint Chiefs signed off on a secret plan to commit terrorism on unwitting Americans that would be the definition of a conspiracy, no?

Thank goodness for JFK...wonder what ever happened to that guy anyways... Wink

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