It's really hard to tell. Mainly, I believe that there is reasonable doubt that this was murder. I understand the police and the prosecutor's initial decision not prosecute. The facts can be interpreted either as murder (or more tenably manslaughter) or as self-defense, the main sources of information are either neutral and can be interpreted either way or so biased that you can't really trust them. But the fact that Zimmerman had a broken nose and is reported to have had his head slammed into the concrete...at that point I think lethal force is authorized. It should never have gotten to that point, but at that point I think it is authorized.
However, I think what really happened was two people decided (in an entirely understandable manner) to be stupid at the same time and somebody died as a result. Trevon should have run. Because if you think some shady guy who outweighs you is following you that is the wise course of action. Not that it should be legally required (strongly against repealing stand your ground) but if it's possible it's the wise thing. But he was a young male. Not a young black male, he was a young male. And young males feel a need to prove themselves men and gain status.
Zimmerman shouldn't have followed him. He should have listened to the dispatcher and stopped following. He had in the past, but in the past the suspects (for break ins in his neighborhood) had gotten away. He was trying to defend his community and felt the police had failed in the past. He shouldn't have followed him but he did.
And then you get to the "should have's". Trevon should have been able to outrun Zimmerman. Zimmerman should have been able to subdue him if it came to blows. Zimmerman should have let Trevon get away if he was losing the altercation. Trevon should have used force and then run. And I'm sure you can think of more.
Really I see a tragedy made by honest, if stupid, mistakes on both sides. I don't have all the facts, but I would not feel it a miscarriage of justice if he's found not guilty. It is now for a jury to decide, but what bothers me is how that came about. The blatant race-baiting and fear-mongering by the media and "black leaders". The lack of anything approaching balanced coverage. The charges
in response to public outcry and the prosecutor said with a straight face that "we don't prosecute based on opinion polls". Ummmm, obviously you do. That's what bothers me. I'm about as "hang'em high" as you get with murderers. But murder has to be proved beyond a reasonable doubt. And I don't think the evidence exists for that level of surety about what happened. The police didn't think so. The initial prosecutor didn't think so. After a couple weeks of race-baiting they decide? I smell politics. And politics and justice do not go together.
A quick aside to Benkolmer, I was a reading a times article on this subject lambasting stand your ground, they obviously had a child's understanding of the standards of proof required by the criminal justice system (which is my area of study) but they mentioned that FL has a law where if you point your gun at somebody, even if you don't fire, it's an assault with a deadly weapon and gets you 3 years.
finally: (sorry for the long post) here's the only article I've seen that's tried to give shrift to the other side and the best piece of journalism I've seen on the case to date:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/25/us-usa-florida-shooting-zimmerman-idUS
BRE83O18H20120425