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Message started by Rat Man on Aug 13th, 2020 at 12:54pm

Title: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 13th, 2020 at 12:54pm
   The long range forecast predicts a late Fall and a very active hurricane season due to an active El Nino.  In that we've already been hit with two tropical storms here in New Jersey and a third, Josephine, is possibly on the way this seems like a very reasonable assumption.  When Tropical Depression Eleven becomes Josephine in a day or two she will be the earliest named "J" storm in recorded history.  Though I've never had to bug out from this area due to a hurricane the possibility is always there.  I have my plan in place. 
    In that we'd have to run and hide for probably just a few days my list is simple.
1.  What ever cash I can muster.
2.  A big 50 lb bag of kibble for the dogs.
3.  Some non perishable food that doesn't require preparation like peanut butter, bread, crackers, cereal, canned tuna, trail mix, etc. Also toilet paper.
3.  Fresh water.
4.  Important papers ie. birth certificate, home owners insurance, etc..
5.  The Ball Python can go a long time without eating so I won't worry about bringing food for him.  Just water.  In that he's a tropical beast he requires a lot of heat so I'll stick him in a pillow case and keep him close to my body. 
6.  I imagine that roomy Mike will be bugging out with me.  I think it would be better to take two cars in case one craps out. 
      We'd drive west for a few hours until we were in the Pocono Mountains and hole up there.  That's about it.

Edit:  Almost everyone waits until the last minute to bug out then they get stuck in a massive traffic jam.  If something really big was headed this way I definitely would scram a day or two in front of the stampede.  In that we're about fifty miles inland here it would probably take a Category 4 or 5 to make me run. 
    One more thing to add... I don't know how many of you remember Hurricane Gloria in 1985.  She was a beast of a Category 5 that was supposed to march right up the Delaware Bay.  The weather guys were calling her "The Storm of the Century." I worked for Cable TV then and had to stay or lose my job.  We all went to bed that night wondering if our world would be smashed flat by morning.  We caught a huge break.  When Gloria hit most of her wind was on her seaward side. For all her scary bluster she was basically a dud.  Why mention that?  Because if I was faced with the same scenario now that I am retired I definitely would skedaddle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 21st, 2020 at 2:14pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/18/tropical-storms-atlantic/
Atlantic.jpg (129 KB | 28 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Aug 21st, 2020 at 6:22pm
And they're both supposed to hit the same day.  The hurricane looks to cross Florida and then restrengthen in the Gulf before it smacks into the Florida panhandle and then into Alabama/Georgia. 

Then, two or three day later, the one that hits Texas/Louisiana will show up where I live as more rain. 

Happy happy joy joy.

I need to get a bigger chainsaw before next Tuesday.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 22nd, 2020 at 3:11pm
This will be only the third time in recorded history we've had two tropical storms or hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time. Sort of typical for 2020. Laura and Marco I believe.  To me Laura seems like the one to watch.  Good luck, Bill.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 23rd, 2020 at 1:55pm
Both Laura and Marco have started to strengthen and rotate.
Storms.jpg (173 KB | 20 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 23rd, 2020 at 1:57pm
   The latest projected paths have them both landing in pretty much the same area.  It looks like a very soggy time for east Texas and Louisiana.  I'm picking up a lot of doubt from the Weather Bureau.  I don't think they know what's going to happen. 
Paths.jpg (255 KB | 49 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 24th, 2020 at 2:50pm
   My younger sister Donna who lives in the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola told me this morning that Marco uncoupled due to shear.  The rain went one way and the wind another.  How very fortunate.  Of the two storms Marco wasn't the one that concerned me anyway.  Laura is the one to watch.   

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 26th, 2020 at 11:26am
956 mb. and dropping.  Batten down the hatches, Texas!
LauraSm.jpg (101 KB | 31 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 26th, 2020 at 3:42pm
   Holy crap!  Laura jumped to a Category 4!  This will be ugly.
Laura4.jpg (183 KB | 45 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Morphy on Aug 26th, 2020 at 4:56pm
Stuck at the station for at least 36 hours. Might be here till Monday morning. Luckily it’s supposed to turn. The latest sat photo I saw seemed to suggest it was turning North so hopefully that last the case.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Aug 26th, 2020 at 8:06pm
Here’s hoping and praying in you have an uneventful weekend Morphy and your family stays safe while you’re at the station. My in-laws, who live in a 5th wheel, just evacuated Houston.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by slingbadger on Aug 27th, 2020 at 6:42am
Hit the Louisiana Texas border. It's tearing roofs off of buildings. Effects are being felt over 150 miles away.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 27th, 2020 at 1:13pm
  The remains of Laura will be over top of us here in New Jersey tomorrow morning.  This will be the third time already a tropical disturbance has reached us here this season.
LauraSm_001.jpg (109 KB | 37 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by vetryan15 on Aug 27th, 2020 at 4:56pm
Good luck everyone,We might be getting rain from this up in Maine this weekend

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 29th, 2020 at 1:40pm
   The remains of Laura are hitting Jersey today.  The rain has been very heavy at times.  For the first time I know of my little lake overflowed by just a bit.  Not near enough to pose a threat to anything, thankfully. 

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Oxnate on Aug 30th, 2020 at 1:22pm
I saw Laura following Marco and suddenly I had this image of two kids in a pool yelling, "Marco!"  "Laura!"

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Aug 31st, 2020 at 12:42pm
We got several inches of rain from Marco but it was spread out over 72 hours.  And it wasn't particularly hard rain.  Just steady. 

Morphy, you OK?

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Aug 31st, 2020 at 4:11pm
  Other than a few trees knocked down all of this tropical activity has been a good thing here in New Jersey.  Between Fay's five inches of rain, Isaias's four, and Laura's six my little lake is nice and full.  We've caught up from our snowless Winter. 
   Of course we've just entered the peak of the season so by its end I might be singing a different tune.
   In case anyone doesn't have one here's a link to some decent Atlantic satellite loops.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 6th, 2020 at 1:18pm
   I like to make long range predictions.  If you look to the far right of this loop you'll see a big wave that is just leaving the coast of Africa now.  It's already rotating.  This is one that I will watch.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

Edit:  There are now two storms with good rotation in the Atlantic.  I bet we'll be using the Greek alphabet again this year.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 11th, 2020 at 3:57pm
LOL
AtlanticSm.jpg (86 KB | 67 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 13th, 2020 at 2:30pm
   You'll rarely see the Atlantic more active than this.  IMO TD 20 is the one to watch.  It's coming in farther south than the others.  That makes it less susceptible to wind shear that will tear it up or turn it north.  Plus it's over warmer water. And it's huge. 
Atlantic_001.jpg (102 KB | 44 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 13th, 2020 at 2:31pm
,
Sat.jpg (153 KB | 62 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Sep 14th, 2020 at 6:43pm
I'm already getting breezy weather from Sally. 

Which is supposed to hit me twice.  Once as it comes ashore and then two days later again as it fish hooks back across me.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 14th, 2020 at 6:55pm
    My sister Donna lives in Navarre near Pensacola on the Florida Panhandle.  Needless to say she's concerned at the moment.  Sally was supposed to hit farther west but she's almost stalled right under Pensacola. 
    Good luck, Bill.  The slow movers like this suck.
Sally.jpg (158 KB | 60 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Sep 15th, 2020 at 11:16am
The outer bands are about 50 miles (100ish Km)or so south of me and it looks like it's going to track straight over me.

Already windy, but that isn't supposed to increase much more, bands of showers and some strong storms today, tonight and then rain and wind all day Wednesday.  With some more bands following on Thursday.  Predicted 4 to 8 inches of rain (10 cm to 20 cm) on Wednesday.  Maybe more if a strong storm hits.

I'm more worried about a spin off tornado. 

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 15th, 2020 at 1:25pm
   Sally has almost stalled.  She's moving at just 2 mph.  This makes her  much more dangerous.  Anything can happen.  The longer she's at sea the more she can strengthen.  She can take just about any path now too.  The worst part will be the rain in that she's moving so slowly.  Stay on your toes, Bill.
Sally_001.jpg (221 KB | 45 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 16th, 2020 at 6:55am
  It's early morning here.  Sally is a direct hit on my sister Donna near Pensacola.  She's getting the eye wall now.  I'm waiting to hear from her.  I imagine she is busy at the moment. 
Landfall.jpg (71 KB | 66 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Sep 16th, 2020 at 11:38am
Good news for me is that Sally started tracking eastward as soon as it came ashore.  None of the northwestern track as predicted.  I'm getting wind and rain but not as bad as predicted. 

Good news is the ground won't get saturated as quickly, so hopefully not as many trees will be down.  Bad news is same dry soil means less moisture in those same trees, so more limbs down from the winds.

Either way, I expect to be driving my chainsaw as soon as it passes. 

And due to the rotation, normally anyone east of the eye gets more rain and winds than the people at the spot where the eye comes ashore.  The actual eye came ashore just west of Pensacola in Gulf Shores at the mouth of Mobile Bay, so Pensacola is getting really hammered.  So I hope your sister is OK.    

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 16th, 2020 at 1:31pm
   Glad your doing OK, Bill.  I just got off the phone with my sister.  She's also OK though they got 24" of rain already.  She's lived in Florida since the 80s.  Most of that time she lived in the Keys on Islamorada.  In 2005 when we had so many hurricanes we had to use the Greek alphabet to name them she'd had enough and moved to Navarre on the Panhandle.  Because of her experiences in the Keys she bought her new house with hurricanes in mind.  It's a brick house on fairly high ground and it came with built in hurricane shutters.  So even though they got a direct hit, for a storm like this she was OK.  She said they were never inside the eye though the eye wall did touch them a couple of times.  She lost power for a while but it's back on now.  They lost at least one tree (she expects there are more down but they'll check that out later when things calm down) and there's a foot of water in their yard.  It could have been much worse.
    We'll get the dregs of Sally here in New Jersey in a couple of days.  This will be the fourth time this season a tropical storm has hit us.  And the season is still young.  My lake has never been this full this time of year before.  It looks great. 

Edit: Donna has a lot of trees on her property.  They pretty much got decimated.  Some were knocked down, some are now diagonal.  Very few are still straight upright.  Still, it could have been much worse.  At least she'll have plenty of firewood for the next few years. 

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Sep 17th, 2020 at 10:51am
Season is almost over, except that doesn't mean the hurricanes are over.

NOAA's seasons are sort of weird as far as dates, their tornado season doesn't match up to when the southeast gets their worst tornadoes.  Their tornado season fits the Plains way better than down here.  Our deadliest tornadoes happen before or after the tornado season.

Same with the dates for the hurricane season, dates seem sort of arbitrary.  They start too late and end too soon.   

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 17th, 2020 at 2:11pm
   Hurricane season doesn't officially end until November 30th and the way the Atlantic is churned up I'd guess we have more adventures on the way.  What's left of Sally will be hitting New Jersey by early evening.  She looks like a soggy mess now.  Hopefully we won't get any tornadoes. 
Sallly.jpg (138 KB | 27 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 17th, 2020 at 2:15pm
Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel says Teddy will turn north and miss America.  I'm not so sure.
Atlantic_002.jpg (82 KB | 31 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 18th, 2020 at 2:49pm
   By the time Sally reached New Jersey she was pretty much spent.  We got maybe a quarter inch of gentle rain overnight.  My sister might not be done yet.  There's some crap kicking up in the western gulf now.  BTW, she lost twelve out of sixteen or her Pine Trees.  Her better half and her will be busy lumberjacking for a while. 

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 19th, 2020 at 1:53pm
   We're now into the Greek Alphabet.  In 2005 we didn't get this far until October.  This has the potential to be the most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history. 

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Sep 19th, 2020 at 7:52pm
In 05, I believe they used all 26 letters.  This year, they didn't use but 21.

Still it's an active year, the storm off Texas will probably eventually wander over me about this time next week.  Hopefully, it won't be anything but rain when it gets here.   

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Sep 24th, 2020 at 5:21pm
  After all that activity the Atlantic Basin is strangely quiet.  Is this the calm before the storm?

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 4th, 2020 at 3:41pm
   After a break for a few weeks the Atlantic Basin is acting up again. 
AtlanticBasin.jpg (89 KB | 53 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Oct 5th, 2020 at 12:02pm
Looks like the depression south and east of Gamma is going to turn north and be in my area around the weekend.

It's supposed to strengthen before then, too. 

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 6th, 2020 at 2:57pm
Yep.  Rough weekend coming up.
DeltaStrike.jpg (86 KB | 48 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 6th, 2020 at 2:57pm
   My sister near Pensacola isn't even done cleaning up the mess from Sally.  No one picked up the wood they cut yet so if there's a bad hit from Delta those logs could become projectiles. 
DeltaTue.jpg (116 KB | 23 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 7th, 2020 at 9:03am
  From the way the spiral bands are headed it looks like a hit on the Mississippi/Louisiana border.  I hate to say it but this is going to be a really bad one like Katrina. 

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Oct 7th, 2020 at 10:06am
Well this one seems to be gradually shifting west.  That's actually good, the Gulf is cooler there and there's wind shear that should help weaken the storm. 

Still going to suck to be where it comes ashore, though. 

I'm still looking at rain and possible spin off tornadoes. 

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 7th, 2020 at 2:59pm
Right now they're predicting a Cat 4 when Delta hits America.  Someone is in for a world of poopy.  Hopefully you're right and it won't be that bad.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Oct 8th, 2020 at 9:42pm
The further west it drifts, the cooler the water and the smaller it will become. 

Last I heard, it's supposed to hit land as a Cat 2. 

Difference between the two is sort of like asking if you want to be beat to death with a tire tool or beat to death with a 2X4. 

Still going to be bad, no matter where it hits.

I'm looking at rain and wind on Friday and Saturday, my big worry is spin off tornadoes.  They tend to be long track if they form this time of year.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 9th, 2020 at 4:34pm
Good luck, Bill.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Oct 12th, 2020 at 12:18pm
This one moved further west, all I caught was the fringes. 

Pretty sure Morphy got hammered again. 

Hope he's OK. 

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 14th, 2020 at 1:34pm
  His last post was August 26th.  That's very unusual for him.  I sent him a PM and email.  Fingers crossed.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 14th, 2020 at 1:48pm

Morphy wrote on Aug 26th, 2020 at 4:56pm:
Stuck at the station for at least 36 hours. Might be here till Monday morning. Luckily it’s supposed to turn. The latest sat photo I saw seemed to suggest it was turning North so hopefully that last the case.


This was his last post.  It was right before Hurricane Laura hit. 

Edit: the email address we have for him is bad.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 27th, 2020 at 1:06pm
One more time.... and once again my sister Donna near Pensacola is right in the crosshairs.  Her hurricane shutters are getting a real workout this year. 
Strike.jpg (130 KB | 49 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 27th, 2020 at 1:09pm
   And on Thursday night it will roll over us in New Jersey.  This will be the sixth or seventh time a tropical system has reached us this season.  I've lost count.  My little lake has never looked better this time of year. 
    Zeta is supposed to run right into Winter Storm Billy.  That should make for some prodigious rain. 
Zeta.jpg (218 KB | 52 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Oct 28th, 2020 at 9:36am
It's going to go over my house in the middle of the night.  With spin off tornadoes.  With 3-4 inches of rain (75mm to 10cm) in about 4-6 hours along with 50-70 MPH (100KPH +) winds.

"Oh Lord, for what I'm about to receive..."

Vehicles topped off.  Extra food laid in.  Generator tested.  Extra fuel for that.  New chainsaw blade. 

Now, I wait.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Oct 28th, 2020 at 9:39am
Good news is that it's supposed to miss Pensacola, although they will get storm surge and wind and rain. 

Same places in Mississippi, Texas, Alabama and Louisiana are going to catch Hell one more time this year. 

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by vetryan15 on Oct 28th, 2020 at 7:56pm
Good luck

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 29th, 2020 at 8:52am
    Zeta is still cooking at 990 mb and 60 mph winds.  It's moving forward at a very fast 39 mph.  It will be over me at around seven tonight.  It will be a wild and wooly evening.  No tornadoes, please Lord. 
Zeta_001.jpg (123 KB | 50 )

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Oct 30th, 2020 at 2:35pm
   As often happens, Zeta lost its punch by the time it got to Jersey.  The wind was minimal. It did rain on us for like thirty hours though.  We got about three inches.  I don't think our water table has ever been this healthy this time of year.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Nov 1st, 2020 at 3:58pm
2020 has tied the all time record. It figures.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/tropical-storm-eta-hurricane-season-2020-atlantic-storm-central-america-impact-honduras-nicaragua

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Nov 2nd, 2020 at 6:03pm
And I'm back.

100+mph (160kph) winds locally, lucky us.

at least 4inches of rain (10cm) in about 3 hours.  We probably got about twice that, my gauge only goes up to 4 inches and it was full.  Creeks did get out some. 

My brother's place got hit pretty hard, his cabin had a limb about 30 feet long (10m) land on its roof, a smaller branch about the size of a really strong man's arm punched a hole through the roof.  Luckily, the rain came first, there was almost no rain when the winds came from the back wall.  Usually, the high winds and rain come with the front wall, this time little wind but lots of rain at the front but lots of wind at the rear. 

And my brother's BIL fell off the roof while putting a tarp over the hole and broke his leg on Thursday.  And did an excellent job of it, he's got a spiral fracture in his ankle, both bones are broken about 1/2 way up and one has a split from that break down to the ankle.

He got complacent, he is a carpenter and handyman who replaces roofs for a living, when he stepped off the ladder, he wasn't paying attention and stepped in some sawdust from where I had to take a chainsaw to the limb on the roof.    He fell about 15-16 feet (5m).  Ambulance took about 30 minutes to get here, I'm out in the sticks. 

I told him jokes to make him laugh while we waited.  Every time he laughed, it hurt more.  So, I'd tell him another.   :whistle:  Moral of the story is don't get hurt around me.   

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Nov 2nd, 2020 at 6:12pm
Drove a chainsaw Thursday, Friday and part of Saturday.  Hauled stuff off every day except today.

Got electric back Saturday evening, phone service Sunday evening and the interwebz a couple of hours ago. 

My BIL's daughter had her I Pad with a different carrier than what I have, which was good, because I didn't have anything with any contact.  Ambulance took about 1/2 an hour to get there due to it having to come from 30 miles away. (65km)  And had to slow down for various work crews repairing/replacing powerlines. 

In my hometown of 200ish people, there were three trees down on houses, big old 100+ year old oak trees for the most part.  Those houses are probably totaled. 

Good news is the only injury was my BIL.  And technically, he isn't considered to be injured due to the hurricane.   

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by IronGoober on Nov 6th, 2020 at 12:41am

Bill Skinner wrote on Nov 2nd, 2020 at 6:03pm:
Moral of the story is don't get hurt around me.


First, Glad you're ok.  Second  ^ :

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Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Rat Man on Nov 6th, 2020 at 11:06am
Glad you're OK, Bill. And here we go one more time.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-11-06-eta-tropical-storm-forecast-florida-caribbean-central-america

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by Bill Skinner on Nov 10th, 2020 at 10:58am
Yep.  And I was slowly stocking up on stuff again to get ready for next year's season, that's going to have to be a large purchase, now.  Another fuel can for the generator, more bottled water, more foods that don't require freezing or the 'fridge.  More dog food.  A new chain for the chain saw.  More fuel and bar lube for same.  Make sure the vehicles, including the tractor, have full tanks.   

Luckily, I have money put away for exactly this or similar situations.

Insurance adjustor isn't supposed to get here until the 13th at the earliest and most likely not before the 15th.  Which is when the hurricane is supposed to be here, or at least the outer bands.

I don't think I want to be picking up a tarp on a roof in the rain and wind.  I will hold the ladder, the same one my BIL fell off of, if he or she wants to climb to the roof, though... ;D

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