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Message started by Morphy on Mar 11th, 2020 at 10:22pm

Title: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 11th, 2020 at 10:22pm
So I came back in the midst of a very busy time to see all the interesting thoughts and discussions people are having on the Coronavirus and yet I see nothing! Did I miss the thread? Was it too much for the internet? Perhaps an ancient Turkish text prophesied about the end of the world via virus in the year of our Lord 2020?

Or more likely is this just not an interesting subject to people here?† ;D

I will say due to my profession this virus both concerns me and fascinates me. For awhile I considered this could be another overblown media hyped nothing. Then China quarantined a city the size of New York. Still, perhaps this was an excuse to stop the riots?

Then Italy. And now we are seeing the beginning of whispers of quarantine here in America.

Now Iím not saying there isnít a political side to this. There always is regardless of what side you are on. But I no longer think this is all media hype or political spin.

What are your thoughts on it? Do you know the trends that are being floated out there? How fast this is potentially going to spread?

And is this potentially dangerous for the worldwide economy? I think the answer to the last question is a resounding yes. We will see consequences soon enough though.

So, that being said what are your thoughts on this? I assume we are all too practical to be panicking about this but are you concerned and what is your game plan if major quarantines are implemented.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by joe_meadmaker on Mar 12th, 2020 at 12:44am
Good to see you back Morphy.† I think you're right, there's just been conversation about other things going on. :)

To be honest, I haven't got my head wrapped around the whole situation yet.† Panicking is definitely a bad idea, but I think everyone should have at least some concern.† There is definitely going to be global impact.† Where I work we have preparations in place should the need arise for everyone to start working from home.

Just to throw it out there, this is one of the best videos I've seen that just gives a general overall picture of the Coronavirus situation, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Mersa on Mar 12th, 2020 at 1:00am
Well after y2k, and the 2012 end of the world did nothing to panic the general public this has definitely made more of a panic in the general public of Australia. At least as I can see.
Of course this is a real thing, but so was sars and the swine flu.
For some reason this has really made a lot of people start ďpreppingĒ. Mass toilet paper stocking seems to be high on these peoples list.  :-? ???????
Now I donít really get that as a thing to stock up on but at least now people are also stocking up on rice and canned food.
Me personally Iím hoping that I donít get the virus and if I do I hope I donít get majorly sick.
As for stocking up on resources Iíll stick to my normal life for the moment. If there is a global recession Iím probably still in a similar position. If it really effected food and water supplies and we went into chaos Iím quite happy to attempt a long backpacking hunt.
Itís no alien invasion or zombie apocalypse but I feel like me having skills in the wilderness will be much more valuable then a few hundred bags of toilet paper.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 12th, 2020 at 4:40am
I was thinking I should start a coronavirus post but put it off. Why did I think I should start it? Because coming back from Mallorca I got a NASTY cold. I was supposed to start back at work two days after coming back, but had to phone and say I couldn't make it in. My boss then said have the rest of the week off, which turned out to be the right decision because I was still sick on Monday. Luckily my next shift was on Wednesday (yesterday) and I was fine. I didn't get tested for COVID-19 but I didn't have a fever or much of a cough, just lots of delightful phlegm. I always pick up something when going through an airport and I went through 4 different airports in 5 days.

From my own experience as a nurse, and sharing a flat with a microbiologist that has been doing a lot of work on viruses recently, it's both worrying and not the End of All Things.

On the worrying side, Spanish Flu killed around 50 million people before commercial flights were even a thing. The Black Death killed a third of Europe when the fastest mode of transport was a horse. The speed that coronavirus has spread is concerning and the number of deaths associated with a novel virus whose virulence isn't completely understood is concerning, but coronavirus isn't Spanish Flu or the Black Death. 1 in 5 people that catch it require hospital care, the elderly and those with underlying conditions (particularly respiratory conditions) are at most risk.

That is where the problem is. It's the strain on hospitals to care for people that is going to be the problem. A lot of people have recovered from the virus with a short stay in hospital and appropriate care, but if 1 in 5 of an entire country's population turn up to their hospitals all at once with difficulty breathing... Yeah... That's going to be bad and that's assuming the other 4 people realise they aren't actually in need of hospital care and shouldn't be at the hospital. Factor in the healthcare provisions of particular countries and there are the ingredients for a major international crisis. The NHS in the UK has been staggering under successive Tory government cuts, the loss of highly skilled personal that left the country due to everything surrounding Brexit and a general burnout of staff from the low pay, high workload and lack of respect afforded them. The US has a for-profit healthcare system that charges for COVID-19 testing (currently in most places) when the people who are most likely to be affected (service industry workers who come into contact with a large number of people daily) are underpaid and unable to take sick days to isolate themselves. Other countries have their own particularities that are also fuel to the fire of a pandemic. I truly believe one of the reasons it's spread like wildfire in Italy is that people are much more comfortable with physical contact. Kissing on the cheek as a greeting and hugging is not just more acceptable, it's expected.

That is the good thing about this virus though, avoiding physical contact and isolating stops it in it's tracks. Encouraging people to do this though is difficult, we've all seen the stories I'm sure of people going to concerts despite being told to quarantine themselves...

People stockpiling toilet paper, food and water are overreacting. I don't think this is going to bring down society as we know it. What it is going to do is make 2020 very difficult and a lot of people are going to suffer. Wash your hands, avoid crowds, quarantine yourself if you've come into contact with someone from an infected area. Don't panic.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 12th, 2020 at 4:42am
This is a pretty interesting constantly updating map of all of the reported coronavirus cases:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 12th, 2020 at 6:31am
Well said kick!
The hardest part is to motivate people to do the small, but effective things (like following the rules). We had a couple of these heroes at work, who returned to work while actually given written order not to do so ... Well ... thinking is hard ...

Regarding stockpile: Have enough food at home for 2 weeks to 1 month in case it gets you. But honestly, I either way have that much at home at any given time...

I took the liberty to fix the very interesting link.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Mar 12th, 2020 at 6:54am
Ignorant people and people who don't care exist, good luck to the rest . :-/

I expected this virus to spread faster with so many flights compared to the past.

had planned a trip to Italy for 25-3 I believe the flight got cancelled too late . the return flight on 7-4 which is between 2 red zones still remains to be cancelled! They want to hold on money until the last minute!

I'm very afraid of the political side of this . what freedom are we giving up? for how long? who's the judge? who's the enforcer? and who can judge them both? what new laws are being passed behind our backs?
Stigma on people who traveled to red zones or come from them is probably going to create rifts, there is fertile soil for acts of racism .
quarantines are going to be longer than advertised.† At first I thought that the virus was going to burst the current economic bubble, seems that it didn't happen, it is so big that it can buy itself time. :P

I was thinking that places with quarantines would get births boost 9 months later but a friend told me that couples are actually breaking up after spending more time together. don't know what to expect.

how big it's gonna get https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg (it depends)


Mersa wrote on Mar 12th, 2020 at 1:00am:
Of course this is a real thing, but so was sars and the swine flu


I got to ask what is the difference between coronavirus all these viruses because I don't remember such measures been taken in the past(maybe I don't remember well). Was there already a vaccine for them?



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 12th, 2020 at 7:28am
Thanks for fixing the link :D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 12th, 2020 at 9:29am

joe_meadmaker wrote on Mar 12th, 2020 at 12:44am:
Good to see you back Morphy.† I think you're right, there's just been conversation about other things going on. :)

To be honest, I haven't got my head wrapped around the whole situation yet.† Panicking is definitely a bad idea, but I think everyone should have at least some concern.† There is definitely going to be global impact.† Where I work we have preparations in place should the need arise for everyone to start working from home.

Just to throw it out there, this is one of the best videos I've seen that just gives a general overall picture of the Coronavirus situation, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts.


Yes, and amazingly that video is still trending. I wouldnít be surprised if Joe Rogan consulted with that guy to know about what time the Coronavirus was going to blow up in a big way and then scheduled him right at the start of it. Good timing either way.

The interesting thing about this situation is it shows how delicately balanced our current system is. You close schools to stop the spread and now parents have to take off work to watch the kids. You canít just get daycare because then you have the same problem.

I feel like the two big turning points to this ongoing scenario are going to be massive quarantines and/or the excessive restriction of movement that could potentially seriously harm the global economy (I am actually more concerned about that than I am about getting this disease). And secondly here in America we have around 300000 open hospital beds at any one time. Those beds are going to fill up quick. When they do and we have to triage our patients to a higher standard I think thatís when the death rate could go up dramatically.

Again this is all considering how closely the actual illness mirrors the current numbers and predictions being given by those in the scientific community.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Mar 12th, 2020 at 12:28pm
   Whether or not a competent government response could have stopped or contained the Coronavirus in America is moot at this point. It's here.  Many if not most probably  will get it. 
    People running around punching each other over toilet paper, using weird "cures" like garlic soup, walking around with particulate masks that won't do shit, spraying, wiping, and sanitizing everything on earth, and generally panicking isn't going to help.
     It's here. You might get it.  Let's try to show a little dignity, people.  Looking like total fools won't help.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 12th, 2020 at 4:47pm
Oh, the irony....† ;D I nearly got quarantined literally 30 min after I wrote the last post. First case 50 m down the hall way and a bunch of people in quarantine/home office. I was not in contact with that person luckily.

Morphy, you asked for the game plan. It is, in short, continue "as usual", but prepare for home office/online interactions. All conferences and meeting are cancelled until further notice. Yeah, it's going to be a bumpy ride, but I don't expect breakdown of public live, supplies etc.
The healthcare system? Not so sure about that to be honest...

Expectations for me: Wash hands regularly and work until I get sick or quarantined (50% chance). I'm most probably going to be allright. Young and healthy. Stay at home for about two weeks, then go to work again. Nevertheless, social events and family visits are currently cancelled for me.
Expectations for the economy: Oh my dear, it's going to get rough...
Expectations for the population: sorry guys... some people will suffer, some people will die.
Expectations for the world: This flu is now going once through the population. It seems too widespread to stop. I'm just not sure how fast it will go and with what effect...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 12th, 2020 at 5:08pm
...and panic buying has started in Finland. Started a few hours I got back from the shop. Unfortunately I wasn't buying 1kg of rice but some small pointless things. Probably should have thought that one through a bit better... Let's hope there's... something to buy tomorrow...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 12th, 2020 at 7:45pm
So we just got back from Sams Club and the rumors are true. In that massive warehouse of a store the toliet paper, water and a bunch of other stuff has been cleaned out. And this whole thing is literally just beginning here in America so thatís slightly concerning.

Teg, Iím glad thatís an option for you. I would hate to see anyone get sick especially our members here. Due to the fact that I work in EMS I have already resigned myself to the fact that I will probably get this. Since people can be highly infectious and have no symptoms whatsoever there is zero chance I can avoid it. I am relatively young and fit though so I will hope the old immune system can fight it off if and when it happens. I am glad to hear that it seems to not affect children much. I donít care if I get it but I certainly wouldnít want it to pass to my daughter.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Mar 12th, 2020 at 9:22pm
1.Morphy?! Youíre alive!
2. Itís interesting to listen to the subtext of conversations. I was talking to a cashier at a grocery store today who was clearly trying to convince himself that thereís nothing to worry about. The words were the same ďnothing to worry aboutĒ phrases everyoneís been repeating for a while, but the words are getting less convincing. Heís been watching the panic slowly rise for weeks, and I think heís going to start worrying about himself pretty soon.  A lot of people are, and thatís scarier than the virus to me. 
3. This may not be the apocalypse, but I think itís going to be uncomfortable for everyone for a little while. Nobody knows what effect this will have. The world is so interdependent that the travel restrictions might have a huge downstream effect on availability of goods.
4. Time to invest in some VR goggles, because thatís the only way to get front row to any major spectator event

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Mar 12th, 2020 at 9:27pm

Kick wrote on Mar 12th, 2020 at 5:08pm:
...and panic buying has started in Finland. Started a few hours I got back from the shop. Unfortunately I wasn't buying 1kg of rice but some small pointless things. Probably should have thought that one through a bit better... Let's hope there's... something to buy tomorrow...


The city told teachers in San Antonio today to prepare for two-week quarantines. Finland may be different, but around here, 1kg of rice probably isnít going to cut it. I hope nothing crazy happens but fear seems to be taking over, and if that turns into panic, then the virus is not going to be the only problem.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 13th, 2020 at 4:38am
I got a phonecall this morning from my boss saying that the rules around working after being abroad have changed for those working with vulnerable people (like myself). There has to be two weeks away from work after being abroad (anywhere abroad, doesn't have to be a hot spot) so, because I was in Mallorca, I can't be back at work until next Tuesday... Even though I was at work on Wednesday... Well I don't mind some extra time off. I was supposed to start at 10 today but instead I went panic buying. Got a fair amount of food (and some extra bog roll) and there were some empty shelves but it was't true panic buying. It wasn't like people were running around carrying random items screaming. This is still Finland. There weren't any fights in the aisles or pushing to the front of the queue. Very civilised. We usually have a fair amount of longer lasting food so we should be fine for a fair while.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 13th, 2020 at 4:57am
One advantage we have is that there are a lot of hares around our area and I'm probably one of the few people around here with the equipment necessary to... acquire them :D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Mersa on Mar 13th, 2020 at 5:08am
Yep I feel ya on that one, Iím lucky enough I can get by for a short while on what I got and if we really get in strife my sling and bow will become prized possessions.
Iím happy to go into the wilderness if it seems like a better option and have always worked on my bush craft skills. I think a small part of me wants to see if I could survive but I would also like to go surfing and do other things that require some level of social stability. Letís just see how this unfolds!!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 13th, 2020 at 5:11am
I don't think it's going to get that bad. There was a good point made on Twitter that seeing things getting cancelled and new rules coming in is scary but it shows it's being taken seriously and things are being done to improve the situation. It would be scarier if nothing was being done.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Mersa on Mar 13th, 2020 at 5:21am
Itís people that are scary not so much the virus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by slingbadger on Mar 13th, 2020 at 6:37am

Sarosh wrote on Mar 12th, 2020 at 6:54am:
Ignorant people and people who don't care exist, good luck to the rest . :-/

I expected this virus to spread faster with so many flights compared to the past.

had planned a trip to Italy for 25-3 I believe the flight got cancelled too late . the return flight on 7-4 which is between 2 red zones still remains to be cancelled! They want to hold on money until the last minute!

I'm very afraid of the political side of this . what freedom are we giving up? for how long? who's the judge? who's the enforcer? and who can judge them both? what new laws are being passed behind our backs?
Stigma on people who traveled to red zones or come from them is probably going to create rifts, there is fertile soil for acts of racism .
quarantines are going to be longer than advertised.† At first I thought that the virus was going to burst the current economic bubble, seems that it didn't happen, it is so big that it can buy itself time. :P

I was thinking that places with quarantines would get births boost 9 months later but a friend told me that couples are actually breaking up after spending more time together. don't know what to expect.

how big it's gonna get https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg (it depends)


Mersa wrote on Mar 12th, 2020 at 1:00am:
Of course this is a real thing, but so was sars and the swine flu


I got to ask what is the difference between coronavirus all these viruses because I don't remember such measures been taken in the past(maybe I don't remember well). Was there already a vaccine for them?

Our illustrious leader is using it as an excuse to build the wall. That will keep the virus out.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 13th, 2020 at 8:46am
ďMorphy?! Youíre alive!ď

Why yes I am my good Sir. Hope everything is going well in San Antonio. What a generic virus for our first movie style pandemic. Am I right? I refuse to accept this. Zombie Apocalypse or bust.  ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 13th, 2020 at 9:01am

slingbadger wrote on Mar 13th, 2020 at 6:37am:
Mersa wrote Yesterday at 12:00am:
Of course this is a real thing, but so was sars and the swine flu


I got to ask what is the difference between coronavirus all these viruses because I don't remember such measures been taken in the past(maybe I don't remember well). Was there already a vaccine for them?


MERS ,SARS illnesses and this 'novel coronavirus' SARS-CoV-2 are all 'coronaviruses', there are many of these which affect various animals including farm and domestic, but currently seven of them infect humans.

Because it involves mention of SARS, you are mostly seeing the term COVID-19 used instead. The latter refers to the illness not the virus.

They all look similar under the electron microscope, and reproduce once they are inside a cell in very similar ways. This new one seems to be closely related biologically to the original SARS virus, (it is now very easy in the lab to read the genetic information of a virus and compare it with others, not that easy only 15 years ago) and the clinical manifestations (severe pneumonia) are SARS-like.

The main difference between this and SARS in terms of its spread is that there is a lengthy period after infection when the person has no symptoms, during which they can obviously travel around, and in which they can be highly infectious to others. This time currently estimated at around 5 days, but could be longer in some cases. SARS you typically were recognized as being very sick before you were majorly infectious to others.

I think the so-called 'screening' of temperatures which popped up at airports around the world missed most of the infectious cases passing through - I havn't seen any information about how many people were stopped by these measures or the follow up on them.

It also may be (I think it is the case) that there are a significant number of people that are/were infected and infectious but whom never developed any symptoms that took them to a doctor.

Edit: The early results from China suggested about 17% to 20% of people who catch this disease at least badly enough to see a physician progress to needing hospitalizations.

- (corrected the percentages - not as scary as I mistakenly wrote before)

Vaccines take a lot of time (and money :)) to develop. Currently there are trials on antiviral treatments, but there will not be a vaccine this year. Vaccines are potentially dangerous and unpredictable, you need to test very carefully that they don't cause more harm than good. That's what these 'clinical trials' are about. Even so - those trials will be starting in the U.S. and probably elsewhere in the next few weeks (there are many vaccine candidates), but they will take months to complete. This will be the fastest in the history of the world that a vaccine has gone into trials, so the NIH/CDC (in U.S.) and others are not hanging about here.


The Chinese have been experimenting with all kinds of treatments, but it's not yet clear how successful they are.

The bottom line for the difference between this and MERS and SARS? Those don't spread nearly as easily as this one does. On the other hand this one is not as fatal. 'Ordinary' 'flu kills about 0.1% of those infected. This new virus seems likely to be significantly more dangerous. The current 'gut feel' estimate from people I trust is about 1-2%.

It is also pretty clear now that, like the 'flu, this predominantly causes serious harm to older people from late 50's onwards, although there are exceptions! Children appear to be less affected by it than the usual 'flu. However, one always has to worry about mutations getting around that might make the virus even more infectious, or more harmful. If this eventually infects around 1 billion people (1/6 of the world's population and probably a significant underestimate) that is a heck of a lot of little mutation experiments going on. I think currently there are two distinguishable strains going around.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Mar 13th, 2020 at 9:58am
@ wanderer

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

I wish I could go to the mountains for a year. People are really stupid. With quarantine they stop working and instead meet out in playgrounds and coffee shops!
it's game theory 101 and I'm losing to stupid right now , let's hope darwin's theory will turn the tables :P

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Mar 13th, 2020 at 12:55pm

Morphy wrote on Mar 13th, 2020 at 8:46am:
ďMorphy?! Youíre alive!ď

Why yes I am my good Sir. Hope everything is going well in San Antonio. What a generic virus for our first movie style pandemic. Am I right? I refuse to accept this. Zombie Apocalypse or bust.† ;)


Well put Morphy.  Until people are bleeding from their eyeballs, I refuse to believe that this is more of a threat than swine flu or any number of other random blips on the landscape of mutating viruses.  Itís the fear and panic that are truly different this time.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Mar 13th, 2020 at 2:53pm
Well... that was fast. Grocery store shelves are emptying. The panic is starting, and itís going to be worse when everyone gets off work this evening. Stay safe out there slingers!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 13th, 2020 at 3:28pm
I think it's ramping up everywhere. I think the shops will restock fairly quickly though. We aren't at supply breakdown point yet. I expect more restrictions to come into effect in Finland in the next few days. 155 cases confirmed so far, most of them mild. Only 69 are in the Helsinki and Uusimšš region so I'm not too worried yet. In a lot of ways, it's good people are so concerned. It might well help to reduce infections and keep people away from each other. Almost all gatherings and concerts and events are cancelled which I really see as a good thing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by vetryan15 on Mar 13th, 2020 at 5:38pm
We are one of the few states that do not have any cases yet, up here is Maine. I work at a local grocery store and yesterday the toilet paper, and lysol was completely sold out, including the Walmart right next door was sold out. The two issues my state has is that we are right on the border,  so we see a ton of Canadian come through for shopping.  I am not sure exactly what thier numbers  look like, but the other issue is in regards to it affecting the elderly,  Maine as a state has the oldest age average.  Mostly oler, retired people live in this state, most young people leave for better jobs, yada yada. So when we do get a case it has the potential to spread very rapidly and i am expecting a lot of casualties unfortunately.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by joe_meadmaker on Mar 13th, 2020 at 10:37pm
The craziness has hit my town as well.  I stopped at the grocery store for a couple things this evening.  Toilet paper, paper towels, bottled water, frozen chicken, and other stuff...all gone.

I have to say that seeing it in person definitely gave me an eerie feeling.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by walter on Mar 13th, 2020 at 11:55pm
We did our weekly shopping this am. No tp, paper towels or chicken soup. None. Really weird.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 14th, 2020 at 12:06am
For better or for worse gentlemen we live in interesting times.  [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by lobohunter on Mar 14th, 2020 at 12:12am
Well it's a good time to be alive if your a people watcher
I personally can't wait for the zombies

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 14th, 2020 at 6:34am

Sarosh wrote on Mar 13th, 2020 at 9:58am:
@ wanderer

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

I wish I could go to the mountains for a year. People are really stupid. With quarantine they stop working and instead meet out in playgrounds and coffee shops!
it's game theory 101 and I'm losing to stupid right now , let's hope darwin's theory will turn the tables :P


You're welcome† :)

Yes, if I had the opportunity nowadays I would be checking my nice old but reliable Tacoma 4x4 and heading out where you don't encounter too many people. Except nowadays it seems you are probably going to find your favorite spot taken over by some 'digital nomad' or other† ;).

The U.S. has some big advantages over most of Europe in pure geographic and demographic terms. There are plenty of places not really that involved with big flows of people. Even the cities tend to be less dense than Europe, which will probably slow the spread a lot. On the other hand those nice roadside diners are pretty good places for spread, and there's plenty of those nice communities that depend heavily on tourism.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 14th, 2020 at 7:11am

Kick wrote on Mar 13th, 2020 at 5:11am:
I don't think it's going to get that bad. There was a good point made on Twitter that seeing things getting cancelled and new rules coming in is scary but it shows it's being taken seriously and things are being done to improve the situation. It would be scarier if nothing was being done.


It's not going to get as bad as it might have done, probably. All the evidence is that it affects primarily vulnerable people, and most people will only see the 'inconvenience' to themselves, their businesses, their 401k etc. The people who will see it is carers, nurses, doctors in ICUs, where capacity is far below any ability to cope unless the infection can be slowed and spread out in time. The Washington care homes are cases in point.

The Italian system has been totally overwhelmed, in a way that without some serious measures will happen in other 'advanced' countries as well. No one wants to work in an ICU with the decisions they will have had to have taken.

But the trouble is that when everything is sorted out there will be a whole load of talk about how it was all a great big 'nothing' and it was turned into a panic by some vague cadre of 'experts', who will also be blamed for making 'the wrong decisions'.

The support money that congress is throwing around like water at the moment will dry up, all those specialist staff will be dispersed, research stopped, and we'll all (or most of us) go back to our lives listening to the narrative of our favorite 'news' organization.

I'm maybe coming across a little angry here, but once you've been around the block a few times....

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Mar 15th, 2020 at 9:02am
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-the-difference-between-a-1-and-0-1-fatality-rate-is-huge/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=corner&utm_term=first

Context: National Review is more conservative than Rush Limbaugh, but they criticize Limbaughís message that ďthis is just politically motivated Anti-Trump hysteriaĒ and actually agree with Bernie Sandersí assertion when he said 400,000+ could die. Itís a very well reasoned article arguing that the concern is not political but just basic math.

Interesting times indeed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 15th, 2020 at 10:29am

NooneOfConsequence wrote on Mar 15th, 2020 at 9:02am:
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-the-difference-between-a-1-and-0-1-fatality-rate-is-huge/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=corner&utm_term=first

Context: National Review is more conservative than Rush Limbaugh, but they criticize Limbaughís message that ďthis is just politically motivated Anti-Trump hysteriaĒ and actually agree with Bernie Sandersí assertion when he said 400,000+ could die. Itís a very well reasoned article arguing that the concern is not political but just basic math.

Interesting times indeed.


That's a great article, and picks out the salient points really well. They mention Fauci, and I have to say I think he's been a real star.

He has been really good at emphasizing the uncertainties in dealing with this, and despite efforts from most of the media, and sometime even congress† :(, he has managed to avoid being trapped into statements that they then turn into polarized party political crap. He's also perhaps lucky that he's not in the firing line for suspicion over messing up the rollout of testing.

I think Sanders is a little over the top, but not perhaps massively so. Paraphrasing the article, rocket science this is not.

1% of the population (of the u.S.) being 3.3 million people - that is what you would expect to lose from this if everyone in the country caught it. So your wiggle room is what proportion of the population actually catch it. The jury is out on that one, but if 10% of the population catch it, then 330,000 deaths is your answer. And heaven knows who has picked out 10% as a good estimate - I don't know.

Also, of course, the 1% death rate is on the basis that the sickest maybe† 5-10% get good health care.

UK has announced they are planning 'soon' to have the most vulnerable in the population isolate themselves for several months. That is pretty bad news. It looks like they recognize the disease is out in the wild and pretty much not stoppable, and they are just thinking of having it run its course through the population. Dare I say it, that strategy also doesn't cause as much strain on their economy as having everyone in the country restrict themselves to the degree some countries have (successfully) used.

We do indeed live in interesting times!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Mersa on Mar 15th, 2020 at 7:31pm
Both Australia and New Zealand have introduced mandatory self isolation of 2 weeks for all people arriving in Australia from international flights.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Mar 15th, 2020 at 9:47pm
For those of you who have nearby neighbors... hereís a suggestion: exchange information (if you havenít already done that) and make arrangements to pick up supplies for them if you go out. Ask them to do the same for you if they go out. That way, fewer people have to be exposed to the public and you reduce your chances of the virus hitting you or your neighbors.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by walter on Mar 15th, 2020 at 10:54pm
As of today, the chamber of commerce visiter ctr and the public library have been closed in my little town. The govenor has also closed all AZ schools begining tomorrow for a week. And (of course) there is no tp, paper towels, chicken noodle soup or hand sanitizer to be found in any of the stores :-?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 16th, 2020 at 11:47am
Finland will soon be closing it's borders and banning gatherings of more than 10 people. Schools and universities are closing as are libraries and just about everything else. It seems heavy handed when you see that the number of confirmed cases is only 272 in the whole of Finland but it makes sense. Norway, Denmark and Sweden have far more cases and are only just implementing these sorts of measures. Testing is being saved for healthcare personnel and those with clear symptoms so the true number is obviously higher than 272 but is still within controllable numbers I would guess. I expect everything to be locked down tight for a good few weeks (Months? Possibly). Somewhat messes with our plans to get married soon. It wasn't going to be a big wedding but it's still unlikely to be happening really.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 16th, 2020 at 12:35pm
Switzerland is also closing universities, public shops etc.
People are a bit nervous but in general quite calm. At least the ones I still see† ;D

No curfew as of now.
Companies may stay open, given that distance can be kept.
Starting midnight, it's emergency situation.
8'000 army personel (0.1% of the whole population) may be mobilized for civilian support.

Yeah, we are in for the full ride...
Duration of the ride: 19. April, or further notice.
And I'm going into home office for this time :D. Packing up right now...

Oh yes, I forgot: Now Switzerland has the second highest number of cases per capita. Finally little Switzerland goes big† ;D. Though I fear the backlash a bit...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 16th, 2020 at 10:31pm
Houston has closed all bars and clubs and all restaurants have been restricted to take out and delivery only. Schools are closed and I hear now that many of the workers of the chemical/oil plants in this area are talking about management getting ready for shut downs. (Needless to say this would not be good!)

Perhaps I should be more worried about the virus but really I am still much more concerned with the economic fallout for all of this. Guess we will see if that sentiment holds true when it really hits hard.

Right now, we only have a handful of cases in the Houston area and we are already seeing massive social/economic change. I try to imagine what itís going to be like if the virus is not overhyped and we have say several hundred thousand cases in this area.

Hereís an interesting article going over the trends possible with this virus.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/


And hereís a quote straight from the CDC website:

ĒMore cases of COVID-19 are likely to be identified in the United States in the coming days, including more instances of community spread. CDC expects that widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur. In the coming months, most of the U.S. population will be exposed to this virusĒ.

So letís assume ďmostĒ means 75% of 330,000,000 people. That leaves us with 247,000,000 people.

Letís also assume only 1 in 20 are serious enough to require hospitalization, (both China and Italy have had much higher percentages than that but for the sake of accuracy Iím lowballing.)  That leaves us with 12,350,000 people needing serious care. We have approx. 300,000 open beds at any one time. More than that I am in and out of most major hospitals due to my work and it seems like even adding 3 or 4 new patients on an ICU floor needing a ventilator strains their resources. Itís the things like ventilators that Iím really wondering about even more so than a bed. In pandemic sized outbreaks if we really had to we can convert a cot into a bed. But a vent is a vent. You canít fake it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 17th, 2020 at 4:35am
An Italian hospital ran out of ventilators but managed to bring in a 3D printer and print enough off to "save the day". I think something that will be interesting to see is how society changes after this. How hospitals are supplied and run will be entirely revised in some countries I would imagine. A lot of people could have been working from home for a long time before this happened but it was never tried out. A lot of resources that have been gated off for vague reasons (the real reason of course being obscene profits) are now being opened up with little to no adverse consequences. In this case I'm mostly thinking of internet access, particularly in America. A lot of the arbitrary limits have been removed because apparently the big companies have only just realised that the internet is quite important in this day and age. Almost like a utility that to deprive people of would be morally reprehensible...

Things are changing. Who knows in what direction but 2020 is going to be remembered.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 17th, 2020 at 4:45am
Swiss authorities assume ~70% infection rate, for whatever this number is worth.

First day of home office... it feels rather weird.

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-17453/v1
Letality on the ~1% range overall, with ~0.5% for anyone below 65. Again, numbers may change, not accounting for demographics, previous risks etc.
I'm curious how the infection rates in Italy will develop with the estimated ~5 day lag. The effects in infection numbers should soon become visible in the statistics. Then you can estimate what may happen in the US. Effects of the bans in Austria, Spain, France, Switzerland, etc. should start to show next week, I hope. It's a maths game now.
Death rate may follow with another ~5 day lag or so.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 17th, 2020 at 4:51am
On the bright side: I have never seen that all parties in Switzerland share the same opinion, except now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Mar 17th, 2020 at 5:51am
I wonder if heart disease and deaths are going to increase now that people can and are urged to live sedentary lifestyles.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 17th, 2020 at 7:20am

Sarosh wrote on Mar 17th, 2020 at 5:51am:
I wonder if heart disease and deaths are going to increase now that people can and are urged to live sedentary lifestyles.

I would hope we are not in this situation long enough for these restrictions to affect our general health in that way. It's more the mental health implications that I think will bite first. Many people need direct social interaction frequently and probably won't tolerate these kind of restrictions for very long.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Mar 17th, 2020 at 7:55am
Well, San Antonio is officially shutting down. I should have enough supplies for my family, and I can work from home, but keeping a family of 5 sane while weíre all cooped up in the house for days (weeks?) is going to be interesting.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 17th, 2020 at 8:00am

Teg wrote on Mar 17th, 2020 at 4:45am:
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-17453/v1


Thanks for the link† :)


Quote:
Letality on the ~1% range overall, with ~0.5% for anyone below 65.

I'm curious how the infection rates in Italy will develop with the estimated ~5 day lag. The effects in infection numbers should soon become visible in the statistics. Then you can estimate what may happen in the US. Effects of the bans in Austria, Spain, France, Switzerland, etc. should start to show next week, I hope. It's a maths game now.
Death rate may follow with another ~5 day lag or so.


I think the lags will be rather longer than that, but I hope I'm wrong. I can't recall what the development in Wuhan was after the full lockdown, but I don't believe there was any significant diminution of the cases for several weeks.

Whether we'll be able to spot some reduction over unconstrained exponential growth, i would hope so. This whole thing is going to become a classic in modeling when the dust has settled and all the 'unknowns' are known.

I think the 'asymptomatic' and 'marginally symptomatic' infections was badly underestimated here, giving rise to the experience Italy have had, which was that their infection was being driven by a much larger group than they thought. We might in hindsight have figured that out when the eye-watering number of infections popping up in other countries were traced directly back to Italy.

Same is happening in the other countries. According to BBC a few days ago they estimated 10000 to 15000 cases 'unseen' in the U.K. population. I think even that was a considerable underestimate.

So we've seen all the countries come to the conclusion that they can't actually shut the thing out, and that the cases they see are to some extent already 'in the pipeline'.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 17th, 2020 at 9:28am

wanderer wrote on Mar 17th, 2020 at 7:20am:
It's more the mental health implications that I think will bite first.

I do strongly agree. If you get confined, make sure to keep communication channels / scheduled chats etc.


wanderer wrote on Mar 17th, 2020 at 8:00am:
I think the lags will be rather longer than that, but I hope I'm wrong.

The longer, the more dangerous...

The 5 days I quoted have a reason. First, it's an estimate I have seen until people develop symptoms.
Second, if you watch the numbers of new infections in Switzerland:
Max. on 6.3. (Friday) then slow decline, re-max on 13.3. (Friday) then decline (with singularity on 15.3.)
You can interprete this a number of ways:
- We see the work week of the laboratory personel.
- It may imply the people migration from northern Italy (i.e. assumption that no significant domestic spread happened, which is no longer true today). Assuming the virus was transported by people returning from weekend trips to Italy, this would give ~5 days until showing symptoms. Testing on Thursday, positive reported on Friday.
- If it was domestic spread, which it is now, then it's a longer ~7 day incubation period until showing symptoms...† Assuming we caught most of the infectous people early at this stage and only a couple "point sources/bursts" happened.

Or it is pure change or any non-obvious cause...
But I assume this "cycle" will wash out very soon. If it doesn't, it's probably the work week.

I agree with your other thoughts... Unfortunately...


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 17th, 2020 at 9:34am

Sarosh wrote on Mar 17th, 2020 at 5:51am:
I wonder if heart disease and deaths are going to increase now that people can and are urged to live sedentary lifestyles.


If anyone needs it:

https://archive.org/details/BronsonSolitaryFitness

Who better to turn to for fitness tips in a quarantine situation than a man that's spent almost his entire life in solitary confinement?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Mar 17th, 2020 at 11:29am
    There are many bizarre theories going around.  One claims that drinking a broth made of boiled garlic will cure Coronavirus.  Another says that you should use a hairdryer to heat your sinuses and lungs to 146 degrees Fahrenheit.  People are actually believing these things and passing them around.  It's sad to see so many panicking and acting like fools. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 17th, 2020 at 11:42am

Kick wrote on Mar 17th, 2020 at 4:35am:
An Italian hospital ran out of ventilators but managed to bring in a 3D printer and print enough off to "save the day". I think something that will be interesting to see is how society changes after this. How hospitals are supplied and run will be entirely revised in some countries I would imagine.

Things are changing. Who knows in what direction but 2020 is going to be remembered.


Very cool. I had not heard this. Good news for those of us getting ready to go through this.


I am curious as to why Italy seems to be hit so much harder than other places. Letís hope this is not indicative of a more virulent strain. Iíve heard some say itís because of their older population.

South Korea is (or was) doing fabulous. Median age= ~42
Italy is being hammered with a median age of ~47. 

As of the 12th which is the last I checked, Italy had less than twice as many cases as S. Korea but almost 20 times more deaths.

I guess itís possible they just had a case of bad luck on where the outbreak begin. Hard to say. Thatís a pretty big difference though to blame it all on a difference in median age of 5 years.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 17th, 2020 at 12:43pm
I think elderly population and the fact people are very close in proximity to each other just let it spread and kill like wildfire. Everyone is constantly touching, hugging and kissing in Italy and generally being in much closer physical contact.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 17th, 2020 at 12:53pm

Morphy wrote on Mar 17th, 2020 at 11:42am:
am curious as to why Italy seems to be hit so much harder than other places.


My guess is way less dark cases in S Korea, i.e. much higher test rate.
Numbers I see suggest about 4-10x more tests done in S. Korea compared to Italy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 17th, 2020 at 12:59pm
I have to go to work on Thursday... I think I'm going to be cycling for the foreseeable future because I'm sure to get it if I have to take two buses twice a day for multiple days in a row.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Jauke on Mar 17th, 2020 at 5:53pm
This virus can be the catalyst to the collapse of our fragile, unsustainable economic system.
We knew it had to come someday.
We are in for a ride...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by The Celestial Paladin on Mar 18th, 2020 at 1:18am
I work in a retail store. In fact we actually have hours set aside now for elderly folk, immune deficient people, and pregnant women to buy things. Iím not sure how we are going to enforce it.

On a different note; it is kinda fun though to think what if society collapsed due to the fears people have about this...
0A0B4A18-79E3-4B42-B1B9-1421AF664E55.jpeg (80 KB | 7 )

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by TOMBELAINE on Mar 18th, 2020 at 6:13am
First, impossible these days for training the sling.
I like walk ; so I walk at the end of the night because all are prohibited (very frenchy) with financial penalyties.
And it's strange that all people in the world live the same thing.
Like "the war of the worlds" of HG Wells in 1898, the virus is the stronger. Just my thinks. :-/

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 18th, 2020 at 6:40am

TOMBELAINE wrote on Mar 18th, 2020 at 6:13am:
First, impossible these days for training the sling.
I like walk ; so I walk at the end of the night because all are prohibited (very frenchy) with financial penalyties.
And it's strange that all people in the world live the same thing.
Like "the war of the worlds" of HG Wells in 1898, the virus is the stronger. Just my thinks. :-/


Ive been thinking the same thing lately. This whole situation reminds me of what people on the Gulf Coast feel when they have a massive Cat 5 hurricane days from landfall. The collective angst, the feeling of waiting on the brink of something huge that you have no ability whatsoever to change.

Unlike a hurricane though, in this situation you canít simply drive more inland. The world right now is experiencing that feeling all at the same time and itís quite surreal.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 18th, 2020 at 6:44am
I've still gone slinging. The weather has turned crappy so that's more of a problem. No curfews or anything here (yet...) and when I went out yesterday the closest I got to another person was about 30m.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Jauke on Mar 18th, 2020 at 8:03am
In the Netherlands there is no lock down yet, although I expect it within 1 week.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by joe_meadmaker on Mar 18th, 2020 at 8:04am
I started working from home yesterday.† The place where I work isn't forcing it, but has recommended it for people that are able to.† I've worked from home multiple times in the past, but usually just one day at a time.† It's going to be strange working from home day after day, for who knows how long.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 18th, 2020 at 8:07am
I wish I could work from home but we don't really have the space for 20 old people...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Mar 18th, 2020 at 1:28pm
In this episode: cold war with china
Stay tuned on planet earth for the next episode : solar flare hits the earth  :-X

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by walter on Mar 18th, 2020 at 5:17pm

Kick wrote on Mar 18th, 2020 at 8:07am:
I wish I could work from home but we don't really have the space for 20 old people...

;D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 18th, 2020 at 8:59pm

Kick wrote on Mar 18th, 2020 at 8:07am:
I wish I could work from home but we don't really have the space for 20 old people...



Oh come on Kick, surely youíve played Tetris? You got to believe in yourself.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 19th, 2020 at 6:05am

Sarosh wrote on Mar 18th, 2020 at 1:28pm:
In this episode: cold war with china
Stay tuned on planet earth for the next episode : solar flare hits the earth† :-X


I already predicted that after corona blows over, the Earth will be left healthier, the air will be clearer, humanity will have come together in solidarity...

And then a meteorite will smash into the Earth and vaporize half the planet.


Morphy wrote on Mar 18th, 2020 at 8:59pm:
Oh come on Kick, surely youíve played Tetris? You got to believe in yourself.


You're right! It might take a few trips on the bike, but let's do this!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Curious Aardvark on Mar 19th, 2020 at 8:53am
What i find 'interesting' is all the daft charts online claiming how much worse all the other pandemics have been in recent years.

None of them take into account how fast this thing has moved.
It's probably the single most contagious disease we've ever encountered.

Then there's all the crap about 'well it hasn't killed that many people.'
YET !
If it wioes out JUST 3% od the global population that's over 50million people.
This thing has the potential to kill more people than all of humanity's wars - combined.

There's a good chance my cousin has got it - she works in customs at heathrow airport and has recently come down with fever and breathing issues.
Apart from being told to stay at home - there's been no offer of a test.

Even at this early stage in the disease's progress, the health services seem to be floundering around in the dark.

If she's got it, then her husband and three sons will also have it and most likely the rest of my london based family as well.
At least two of whom are in the danger age group.

People keep looking at the steps that have been taken in italian and spain and saying they're overkill.

They are not.

One of the reasons this thing hasn't killed that many people yet, is because of how fast countries have responded.

It's not some weird conspiracy, those measures are sensible.

Touch wood it doesn't seem to have hit the midlands in the uk yet - so I'm still working.
But honestly - not sure for how much longer.

And as a self employed person - I don't get sick pay.

The sole ray of light is the promise of a vaccine in the near future.
Without that our soceity and economy is going to start falling apart.

And with that cheery thought I wish you a very healthy and happy thursday :-)†

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Mar 19th, 2020 at 9:47am
Well... in one week, San Antonio went from 1 confirmed case to 23. It feels a lot like the moment at the top of the roller coaster. Everything is calm, but you know whatís about to happen.

*correction: 25 cases

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by perpetualstudent on Mar 19th, 2020 at 9:57am
Read something that said the worst part is the feeling that you're constantly over reacting AND under reacting at the same time.

There's some truth there. Got a few cases in my county but we're isolating pretty well. Wife is going to work and the girls and I are staying home. Library is closed anyway. It WAS nice enough to let them play outside until yesterday (snow) and today (rain). I'm trying to look at this as a dry run for a larger scale emergency. Need to add some powdered milk to my standard larder.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 19th, 2020 at 1:02pm
Apologies for a very long post, but C_A raises a lot of important points.


Curious Aardvark wrote on Mar 19th, 2020 at 8:53am:
What i find 'interesting' is all the daft charts online claiming how much worse all the other pandemics have been in recent years.

None of them take into account how fast this thing has moved.
It's probably the single most contagious disease we've ever encountered.

Then there's all the crap about 'well it hasn't killed that many people.'
YET !
If it wioes out JUST 3% od the global population that's over 50million people.
This thing has the potential to kill more people than all of humanity's wars - combined.


One can't legislate against these opinions, alas.

The most obscene thing is the better that the efforts pay off, and the fewer that die, the more these same people will be saying that "It wasn't worth all the disruption". One absolutely can't win in these circumstances.


Quote:
There's a good chance my cousin has got it - she works in customs at heathrow airport and has recently come down with fever and breathing issues.
Apart from being told to stay at home - there's been no offer of a test.

She could very well have it. She deals with large numbers of people every day coming from everywhere. I hope she does well.

There are nowhere near enough tests to process all the people that might 'need' them. They are difficult to administer, and there appears (not surprising) to be a log jam in U.K. at the moment at about 5000 tests per day. The U.K. claims, last I heard, to be ramping up to 40000 or so a day I think However they did a lot better there than some other places. The samples have to go through a machine to amplify the viral genetic material, and most times there is going to be a team of technicians pipetting stuff into wells, so it can be pretty error prone. They obviously have to keep track of which sample is which - not too much of a problem in normal circumstances but when you have a lot of samples a lot harder.


Quote:
Even at this early stage in the disease's progress, the health services seem to be floundering around in the dark.

They are dealing with something no one in power cared to imagine. At the best of times they would have been stretched, but over the past decade or so many public or partially public health systems have had their surge capacity optimized out of them in order to save money.

The reason for serious concern in this particular case is the potential demand not just for a bog-standard hospital bed, but as I think we all know by now, the massive demand for supplementary oxygen and mechanical ventilation.

Without access to these facilities, the death rate is expected to approximately quadruple.

Itís not just equipment. You need competent staff to handle ventilation, and there is a limited number of those people. They also need heavy protection because putting someone carrying this disease onto a ventilator is a good way of spreading droplets everywhere.

Weíve seen these problems in Italy and everyone else is terrified they will experience the same.


Quote:
If she's got it, then her husband and three sons will also have it and most likely the rest of my london based family as well.
At least two of whom are in the danger age group.


Youíve got to assume that everybody that your cousin has been in regular contact with, certainly touching, and indirectly through common surfaces like table tops, door handles etc. has a strong chance of having it. The business about handwashing is good advice. Particularly for the kids she canít assume that if they donít develop symptoms they donít have it.


Quote:
People keep looking at the steps that have been taken in italian and spain and saying they're overkill.

They are not.

One of the reasons this thing hasn't killed that many people yet, is because of how fast countries have responded.

It's not some weird conspiracy, those measures are sensible.

I don't agree. They did not take action early enough - reasonable alas because the population as a whole saw no need for it. They could have tried to impose the restrictions two weeks earlier when they might have worked, but I don't think there was a hope in hell that people would have followed it. At least not with something very close to martial law, which might yet come.

The U.K. tried to account for this in their modelling, but the public found out about it and went berserk - or the chattering classes did.

In terms of the way things were handled, some kind of conclusion about this being even more serious than thought seems to have been reached over last weekend. There are rumors about what it was.

What was very obvious in the U.S. on Monday was that suddenly Trump turned into a real statesman.



Quote:
Touch wood it doesn't seem to have hit the midlands in the uk yet - so I'm still working.
But honestly - not sure for how much longer.

For certain it is already there. Not a chance there aren't cases in Birmingham and satellite cities and towns.

This virus has some very undesirable properties from the point of view of stopping it.
1. It is now well established that people can spread this for several days before they have any idea they are ill.
2. It is now becoming more obvious that people can carry ans spread this virus without ever developing symptoms that they were ill. Add to that there is no real way of telling this from the usual things going around at this time of year if it is mild. That all seems to be highly correlated with age.
3. It appears that kissing and transmission of saliva is a spectacularly good way of passing it on in high doses. This can be between people, or it can be kissing a common surface as in many religious practices. Sharing a communion cup, a Torah, or various similar practices is utterly crazy in the present circumstances. This is believed to be a major factor in the Westchester cluster north of New York (associated with a synagogue congregation), also in the catastrophic spread in Iran and likely a significant contributor in Italy. If they have not adjusted their practices expect the same among the many communities in Brimingham, Leeds, etc. although I might have expected them to have appeared already.

Point 1. has been known for months. In this way it differs from SARS.
Point 2. was, I believe, not recognised as a significant factor until Italy. Because of the way the Chinese and Koreans acted, I think this wasnít really obvious during the first month or so.
Point 3. may not have been given the importance it needed. As Kick mentioned and many of us are aware, the Italians are probably the most touchy-feely people in Europe.


Quote:
And as a self employed person - I don't get sick pay.

Both in the U.S. and U.K. the politicians are all scrambling to try and sort that out. They damn well need to do so, because they absolutely need that population among whom are one heck of a lot of young and less vulnerable (whatís in it for me?) people (which includes me as well) to Ďdo the right thing'.


Quote:
The sole ray of light is the promise of a vaccine in the near future.

No. A vaccine is at least 12-18 months, if everything works in the best possible way. The U.S. have just started phase 1 trials on a candidate, that is absolutely stunningly fast progress.

Those† trials check only whether you can actually give it to people without harming them. Once they are sure of that, the phase 2 trials will test whether it actually works.

Vaccines are given to healthy people, so you have to be very careful. Development in normal circumstances certainly has bureacratic obstacles, which are being sliced away in this case, but it amounts to experimenting with humans, and you canít make humans speed up their responses to the trial vaccine.

There are many treatments being investigated. Some are patentable and therefore of interest to pharma, others - less so. Quinine and its derivatives was reported by the Chinese to have some effect. There is also a drug the Japanese have been stockpiling for Ďflu which apparently helps.


Quote:
Without that our soceity and economy is going to start falling apart.

And with that cheery thought I wish you a very healthy and happy thursday :-)†


I think there will be many surprising consequences.

Keep healthy, everyone.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 19th, 2020 at 8:35pm
Iíve come to the conclusion that test kits, while important for the overall picture, are not going to give the full view of whatís actually going on. If Texas runs 50,000 tests tomorrow and we find actually 20 times as many people have it as we thought that doesnít actually change anything.

The moment this thing becomes real is when we start getting a lot more respiratory calls than we used to get. Right now we ďmightĒ run 1 flu call every 2-3 shifts.

If next month we get to a point where we are getting 3-5 ďfluĒ calls per shift thatís when it becomes real. Thatís when the pandemic aspect of this actually reveals itself. Right now there are simply too few cases around here to grasp what it will really be like if things go bananas.

We had our first possible Covid patient call today and itís a surreal experience walking into someoneís perfectly normal house in full PPE. Thereís this irrational thought that nothing is wrong, everything looks normal, you donít need all this stuff on. But you canít take that chance.

That being said with the way this virus infects people we are basically Wuhan in November of last year. Relatively few people have it but since it doubles every 4-6 days thereís going to be a point where infection rate just sky rockets and I guess thatís the point I personally am waiting for. Hopefully it doesnít hit us hard at all. Time will tell I guess.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 20th, 2020 at 5:12am

Morphy wrote on Mar 19th, 2020 at 8:35pm:
We had our first possible Covid patient call today and itís a surreal experience walking into someoneís perfectly normal house in full PPE. Thereís this irrational thought that nothing is wrong, everything looks normal, you donít need all this stuff on. But you canít take that chance.


I had a similar experience a few years ago during a practical training. It was for Home Care and we visited a couple who both had MRSA along with a myriad of other illnesses and I know exactly what you mean about that really strange feeling of being so dressed up in a normal setting. It's like the scene in E.T. where the scientists show up.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by JudoP on Mar 20th, 2020 at 6:41am
I know a friend, and a friend of a friend who have/have had covid now. Given all the people that I would be likely to get news of them getting it (perhaps a few hundred) I crudely estimate that it has reached about 1% infection rate in the UK- or 660k people.

This implies a very low death rate of 144/660k ~0.02%

Of course that illness will not have ran it's course in people that already have it, so we would expect this level of infection to cause more deaths in the next week. That and the infection rate may be way higher in young people which I disproportionately know.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 20th, 2020 at 7:03am
https://youtu.be/BtN-goy9VOY

This video is very good. Explains everything in simple terms and what we all have to do. Share it around.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 20th, 2020 at 8:59am

JudoP wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 6:41am:
I know a friend, and a friend of a friend who have/have had covid now. Given all the people that I would be likely to get news of them getting it (perhaps a few hundred) I crudely estimate that it has reached about 1% infection rate in the UK- or 660k people.

This implies a very low death rate of 144/660k ~0.02%

Of course that illness will not have ran it's course in people that already have it, so we would expect this level of infection to cause more deaths in the next week. That and the infection rate may be way higher in young people which I disproportionately know.


That's an interesting report :). I think you are not far off with the numbers.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 20th, 2020 at 11:00am

Quote:
This implies a very low death rate of 144/660k ~0.02%


Yeah, the dark figure issue... I think, the country getting closest to mass testing while having significant numbers of cases is South Korea. Their numbers suggest a lethality in the same range of about 1%. But who knows what factors play into that number such as received care etc.

Italy is not (yet) broadband testing. So their dark figure is likely very, very high. But what happens in their hospitals is a good estimate of what will happen here in Switzerland as well.
Even with a death rate of 0.01% (of real cases, not just the diagnosed ones), hospitalization rate will be much higher, well beyond capacity.
Most of my colleagues who are in civilian defence (i.e. not in the army) got mobilised. We have reached destination f and we are slowly realising it. Nevertheless, the Bundesrat interestingly decided just now not to implement curfew. The belief in peoples sense of responsibility seems to exist. Shopping this morning was surprisingly easy. No panic buying. Even toilet paper was available† :D

From a evolutionary perspective (the virus perspective, not the human one), this virus is very good. Low level symptoms in a majority of the cases, infectuous before showing symptoms, ...

I messed up the South Korean numbers. It is fixed now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 20th, 2020 at 12:27pm

Morphy wrote on Mar 19th, 2020 at 8:35pm:
Iíve come to the conclusion that test kits, while important for the overall picture, are not going to give the full view of whatís actually going on. If Texas runs 50,000 tests tomorrow and we find actually 20 times as many people have it as we thought that doesnít actually change anything.


I agree with you.

The tests would have been at their best at early stages and for things like contact tracing. Even then they are inevitably pretty clumsy, and you get the answer days after the sampling.

The antibody tests will be 'nice to have' but useless as far as dealing with the next month. It will be useful later.

What the nature of this virus has done is allowed it to 'get in under the radar' and cook away more or less without any red flags being raised. A lot of what will happen in the next week or so is already baked in.

Keep safe, Morphy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 20th, 2020 at 1:02pm

Quote:
From a evolutionary perspective (the virus perspective, not the human one), this virus is very good. Low level symptoms in a majority of the cases, infectuous before showing symptoms, ...


As I was watching things unfold, and thinking of what is facing a lot of my medic friends in places like New York, Dallas, and some of the other big cities, and frankly in tears about what will happen, I actually found a reasonable cause for optimism in the long term.

The virus spread is phenomenally fast for those reasons Teg mentions, but, there is hope that this virus could† burn itself out by running out of new people to infect, given that people are not reasonably likely to be able to catch it twice.

It can only replicate in humans, or possibly in some animal reservoir. It is not the kind of virus that can lay 'dormant' inside an infected individual, as HIV or herpes can.

People aren't being born fast enough for it to support itself on new 'hosts'.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 20th, 2020 at 2:59pm

wanderer wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 12:27pm:

Morphy wrote on Mar 19th, 2020 at 8:35pm:
Iíve come to the conclusion that test kits, while important for the overall picture, are not going to give the full view of whatís actually going on. If Texas runs 50,000 tests tomorrow and we find actually 20 times as many people have it as we thought that doesnít actually change anything.


What the nature of this virus has done is allowed it to 'get in under the radar' and cook away more or less without any red flags being raised. A lot of what will happen in the next week or so is already baked in.

Keep safe, Morphy.


Thanks Wanderer, you do the same. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Mar 20th, 2020 at 3:07pm
   This idiotic panic buying is quite annoying and totally unnecessary.  If people would just shop as then normally do there wound be no shortages.  The latest item to be panic bought... distilled water.  Now I can't get distilled water for my CPAP machine.  If you use regular tap water the minerals in it gunk up and destroy the machine.  In the overall scheme of things this is small potatoes but it's still a pain in the rump. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 20th, 2020 at 4:48pm

Teg wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 11:00am:
From a evolutionary perspective (the virus perspective, not the human one), this virus is very good. Low level symptoms in a majority of the cases, infectuous before showing symptoms,


If any of you have played the game Pandemic, where you play as a virus, bacteria or pathogen and attempt to infect and kill the entire human race before a cure can be found or countries shut down their borders, ports and airports, this is the way you win. You start off being highly contagious but with as few symptoms as possible. You fly under the radar and try and get a foothold in every country then unleash the fatal symptoms to rack up the fatalities. Let's hope whoever is playing as coronavirus doesn't get to the second stage...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 20th, 2020 at 8:35pm
A colleague just sent me this blog article which strikes me as summarizing what is going on (it's a very long post) and most particularly he makes the distinction which may be getting missed in all this:

That although we in the West are making all kinds of changes which look vaguely like what China and Korea did, they are actually two entirely different approaches. We are going for 'flatten the curve', the Chinese and Korean aims were entirely different, more a 'stamp it out' approach.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Mar 21st, 2020 at 3:59pm
The latest items I've discovered in short supply are kibble for dogs and feed for the waterfowl.  I grabbed the last bag of cracked corn at Tractor Supply, the last bag of Taste of the Wild kibble,  and they were out of scratch grains. They were also out of two of the chewy treats I get for the dogs.  I guess eventually people will run out of room to store hoarded items and things will return to normal.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 21st, 2020 at 4:51pm

wanderer wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 8:35pm:
We are going for 'flatten the curve'

That policy may change. Time will tell...


wanderer wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 1:02pm:
It can only replicate in humans, or possibly in some animal reservoir. It is not the kind of virus that can lay 'dormant' inside an infected individual, as HIV or herpes can.

Luckily it is like that. Otherwise that would be an even larger issue.

Let's hope for a low mutation rate. My biggest "relief" is that children are not "affected". I hope for widespread imunity in all future generations.

Looking at the numbers from Italy, it reminds us that we got quite good at postponing death. COVID shows us that we are not as good as we thought and now we can't save people, especially the weak ones ... Nature, the cycle of life, is fine though. The young, strong and healthy survive, but reality slaps us quite hard at the moment.


wanderer wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 8:35pm:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Thank you for that one. I read the previous article from the same author.

In parts of the country, Switzerland has now implemented mandatory registration for all people trained in medical care but not working on the job. With the option for subsequent levy. About 1-2 weeks to go before the storm really hits, I guess. Most of my younger colleagues still serving in civil protection and hospital battalions are all mobilized.

Something bothers me on the long term, after COVID will be over:
It's becoming quite obvious that, to effectively act against a virus of this form, quite extreme measures like contact tracking, i.e. personal surveilance, and sequestering is very effective. While I don't mind getting quarantined for a couple weeks/months by order or drafted when it is necessary to protect others, I do mind daily surveilance when it is not necessary. And surveilance as well as sequestering of populations have a significant abuse potential. How can we find a middle ground? How can these things/viewpoints be brought in agreement with my moral ideals? What are our options for the future? And I'm talking worldwide and not just national in this respect.
I have not yet formed an opinion on that matter, and it is quite a delicate one.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 7:25am
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/smartphones-could-help-track-coronavirus-but-at-what-cost?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&#Echobox=1584812806

You aren't the only one considering the implications.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 9:57am

Teg wrote on Mar 21st, 2020 at 4:51pm:
I'm curious to hear your thoughts.


maybe we should open another thread. It's a political discussion.
I read somewhere " we are going to see if western individualism can function as well as chinese totalitarianism"

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 10:47am

Sarosh wrote on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 9:57am:
maybe we should open another thread. It's a political discussion.

I'm fine not discussing it here. Everyone who is interested in sharing his thoughts: feel free to send me a PM.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 5:40pm

Teg wrote on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 10:47am:

Sarosh wrote on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 9:57am:
maybe we should open another thread. It's a political discussion.

I'm fine not discussing it here. Everyone who is interested in sharing his thoughts: feel free to send me a PM.


I suppose it is 'political', but is it so in any way the moderators might consider  divisive?

I hope we might be able to hold it above the level of scratching each others eyes out :). The social consequences in the aftermath are surely valid points for discussion.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 7:20pm
I'm fine either way. I'm holed up over here and have maybe a bit too much time to think† :D.

On a completely unrelated note:
Maxima in number of new cases in Switzerland were reached on 6.3., 13.3 and 20.3. The last two days the numbers dropped again (21. and 22.3.). A nice 7 day cycle.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 8:33pm

Teg wrote on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 7:20pm:
I'm fine either way. I'm holed up over here and have maybe a bit too much time to think† :D.

Not the only one. :)


Quote:
On a completely unrelated note:
Maxima in number of new cases in Switzerland were reached on 6.3., 13.3 and 20.3. The last two days the numbers dropped again (21. and 22.3.). A nice 7 day cycle.

Yes. I remember you writing that earlier... still thinking about it. Probably I ought to apply a few statistical tests :).

Here's what I think is a nice link for the nerds among us. An excellent Youtube channel by a prominent American virologist in New York - of all places. There are some superb lectures on virology where he has worked a little of the current coronavirus into the lectures, but also podcasts which are bang up to date.

This particular podcast starts with discussion about symptoms with a trainee doctor on what he is seeing. May be worth a listen - the play speedup facility is useful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDg6Rbaf4I0

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 8:54pm

Rat Man wrote on Mar 20th, 2020 at 3:07pm:
† †This idiotic panic buying is quite annoying and totally unnecessary.† If people would just shop as then normally do there wound be no shortages.† The latest item to be panic bought... distilled water.† Now I can't get distilled water for my CPAP machine.† If you use regular tap water the minerals in it gunk up and destroy the machine.† In the overall scheme of things this is small potatoes but it's still a pain in the rump.†


Yes. The panic buying is a pain - I suppose people (some people?!) thought if the ordinary drinking water was sold out they would go for the even-more-expensive distilled water instead?

As I see some gross stupidity centered around shopping, though I think there is some method to some of what appears to be madness.

I've come to the conclusion that the best chance I've got of acquiring this little viral gift is when visiting the stores for essential shopping. Could be in part that people are shopping in larger amounts to reduce their number of visits to the store?

We've also got such stripped down 'optimized' supply chains now that shelves probably empty under less of a demand than would have been the case maybe twenty years ago.

Re. the CPAP - if it really needs the distilled water maybe some kind of ad hoc still? You've obviously more experience of it than I have, but I should have thought you could get away with ordinary water for a few days?
Hope the stores settle down soon and you can get the water you need.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Jauke on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 5:17am
There is no stupidity in hording food/buying, but there is stupidity in being so late to do it. The smart people did it a month ago.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 5:45am
I went today and spent about double what I normally would. There is still plenty in the shops, only a few things were entirely sold out (not the things you're thinking of either, all the chocolate spread and most of the peanut butter was gone). I really don't want to catch this because, if I do, it WILL kill the people I work with. There is no ambiguity. They would not survive this. For that reason, I'm trying to go out with other people as little as possible. Won't need to shop now for a pretty long time. We haven't gone into full on rationing "Not going to step outside for even a minute" so we have still been getting fresh stuff now and then. If we did have to go on full lockdown we have a lot of supplies to last a fair while.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 6:31am

J wrote on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 5:17am:
There is no stupidity in hording food/buying, but there is stupidity in being so late to do it.


I agree with this. But smart people started years before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Foz-8p3jg1A

any action that causes spikes in demand is harmful for everybody and is idiotic or malicious. That is how economy works we believe it will work and that it will keep working, you trust that other people will keep their promises(supply/demand) and will exchange goods for money, that is how money have value. If money lose value because of idiotic actions and nobody stops the fall then trust is lost, promises are broken and those who panic at the end lose too.
idiots are those who harm others while they harm themselves.
so if you haven't been doing it before covid-19 it's idiotic to do it now . start slowly or better when the crisis is over.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by slingbadger on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 6:58am
Barber shops and salons are now closed. Things are going to get ugly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 11:07am

slingbadger wrote on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 6:58am:
Barber shops and salons are now closed. Things are going to get ugly.


LMAO

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 12:35pm
don't you have Italy measures in the US yet? judging by Italy and Spain numbers you should.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by walter on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 3:40pm
As of this morning, 152 confirmed cases. Two deaths in Az, US. No known cases in four of the 15 counties.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 4:43pm
Well. U.K. has just announced:

Everyone must stay at home except for:
Shopping for essentials as little as possible.
Allowed out once a day for some sort of exercise on one's own or with family.
Medical need.
Travel to and from work.

To be looked at again in three weeks.

Apparently the police are going to enforce it. Not very likely given a lot of the country hardly ever sees a policeman.

Looks similar to the restrictions current in Italy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 5:06pm

Sarosh wrote on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 12:35pm:
don't you have Italy measures in the US yet? judging by Italy and Spain numbers you should.


U.S. has some great advantages over Europe in terms of its land area. Many of the cities are not as dense as Europe or in Asia so can expect spread to be less catastrophic, but it will be bad. They have not taken action early enough.

New York is already in a bad way, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago probably a few days behind. They are all pretty dense, like most European cities.

- no point really fleshing out the details. It's all pretty inexorable.  :(

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 5:17pm

Kick wrote on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 5:45am:
I really don't want to catch this because, if I do, it WILL kill the people I work with. There is no ambiguity. They would not survive this.


You are doing all you can, and you obviously care. Keep strong!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 5:21pm
Same to you and to everyone out there. Good luck and good health!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by perpetualstudent on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 7:44pm

Sarosh wrote on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 6:31am:
so if you haven't been doing it before covid-19 it's idiotic to do it now . start slowly or better when the crisis is over.


That's all well and good in theory but in practice? No. The social contract even in our day to day interactions is in flux. Humans are not acting normal because we all know on a damn deep level that things are not normal. I'm not saying it's reasonable to clear out your grocer's meat section. I'm saying that buying groceries until you can last a month without resupply is utterly reasonable. Bill it as a tragedy of the commons if you wish but it is reasonable, logical, and inescapable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 9:44pm

J wrote on Mar 23rd, 2020 at 5:17am:
There is no stupidity in hording food/buying, but there is stupidity in being so late to do it. The smart people did it a month ago.


Those who are familiar with my posts know that I always keep my house well stocked.  With rationing we could probably survive for a year or more on what I have here.  It makes no sense to be completely dependent on the super markets for one's survival.  I'm not a hard core prepper so there are certain items I will run out of... perishable food, toilet paper, etc.. but I won't starve for a good long while.  I will never understand why everyone doesn't stockpile a reasonable amount of emergency stores. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Mar 25th, 2020 at 4:00pm

wanderer wrote on Mar 22nd, 2020 at 8:33pm:
Probably I ought to apply a few statistical tests


The head official for transmissive diseases was asked about the reduction in number of cases in Switzerland in the past few days. His interpretation: We probably see the limit in capacities.

So don't forget to test on lack of tests† :-X

On a more serious note: Which ones were you thinking about?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by TOMBELAINE on Mar 26th, 2020 at 6:54am
I am ready for a long and a hard quarantine.
I have sowed radish in my garden.  :D
DSCN4385.JPG (1077 KB | 6 )

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by TOMBELAINE on Mar 26th, 2020 at 7:01am
Sorry for the size of the photo
DSCN4385.jpg (493 KB | 5 )

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 26th, 2020 at 12:22pm
Finland are bringing new restrictions tomorrow. The borders of the Uusimaa region, which contains Helsinki, are being restricted to try and stop the spread North as the majority of cases are here in the South. It's also to help relieve the strain on the hospitals further North because people from the South started running off to their summer cottages. Great plan until they start getting sick and find the nearest hospital is miles away and has no beds because they are the only hospital for 100s miles.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Mar 26th, 2020 at 1:28pm

TOMBELAINE wrote on Mar 26th, 2020 at 6:54am:
I am ready for a long and a hard quarantine.
I have sowed radish in my garden.† :D


   We are thinking of putting in a vegetable garden here too.  For the same reason. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Mar 29th, 2020 at 10:19pm
    I'm very glad I'm retired.  My last job as a Cable TV Technician would be one of the worst right now.  On an average day I would probably be in sixteen peoples' homes.  It would be impossible to avoid the virus. As it is now I only have to leave the house to go shopping for non-perishables. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by slingbadger on Mar 30th, 2020 at 7:00am
I have a friend in the Navy that was just diagnosed. He's on a carrier now quarantined off Guam. There are no isolation facilities on the ships, and the hospital ships are not going to be used. They are totally unprepared for this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Curious Aardvark on Mar 30th, 2020 at 10:11am
I can't think of a better way to spread this disease and create herd immunity in the population, than by telling people they can only go out once a day and limit their shopping.

I have NEVER seen so many people out and about walking on their own or with their kids.
People who would normally be vegetating at home in front of the tv, are now going out and about - I suspect partly because they've been told they can't and partly because if they can only go out for a walk once a day (when previously they would never do this at all) then by god they ARE going to go out once a day !

And given that people now HAVE to shop once a week, because you can only buy aweeks worth at a go, less if you have a decent sized family - there are also more people in the shops than before the limitations as well.

Not sure if it's a midlands thing or national.

But telling someone they MUST do something is pretty much guarenteed to make bloody sure they do the opposite.

A much better way to stop the spred would be to tell people they absolutely MUST go out 4 times a day for a 3 mile walk.
And if they don't shop at least 3 times a week, in a variety of different shops - then they'll get chraged double price for all their groceries.

Then watch the shops empty and the streets and footpaths clear !

I've seen no bio security in the shops.

People do appear to have stopped buying chicken though.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by slingbadger on Mar 30th, 2020 at 10:51am
CA, The spring break for the college students went on, despite the ban on gatherings. Now many have the virus. A lot of churches are ignoring the ban and are still doing large services, because "God will protect them."
Oh, and the Christian college Liberty university is open, and now students are dropping from the virus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by joe_meadmaker on Mar 30th, 2020 at 11:29am
A gas station pretty close to me and a grocery store (where I've always done most of my shopping) have both had an employee test positive.† I'm not too worried about exposure because I haven't been to either in over a week and I'm not sick at all.† Just scary with it hitting so close to home.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Mar 30th, 2020 at 12:30pm

Curious Aardvark wrote on Mar 30th, 2020 at 10:11am:
People do appear to have stopped buying chicken though.


what's wrong with the chicken?

by the way my government spent 11million euros to advertise stay home when at the same time we dont have enough nurses and beds

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 30th, 2020 at 1:58pm
Restrictions are being extended in Finland to the 13th of May. I doubt this will be the only extension. Deaths and infections are still low here. There are more deaths in the UK than Finland has had confirmed cases so I'm not too worried about the virus. This is going to kill a lot of businesses though...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Mar 30th, 2020 at 2:15pm
My wifeís friends mother is on a vent right now with Covid and is expected to die. Thereís nothing that can be done for her. I have a dry cough and shortness of breath but Iím almost positive itís just allergies as the high pollen level alerts are going out like clockwork and Iím allergic to practically everything in the Houston area.

Even so I had to stay home from work today. That to me is the worst thing about all of this. You stay home because you cant risk passing this on to your coworkers and their families.

You get tested and come back negative but then 3 weeks later the Houston area goes up like New York is right now and I end up getting it, Now I have to stay home again??? Or I have more allergy symptoms and donít end up staying home and give it to coworkers who then infect their families? Or option number three I have allergy symptoms, stay home and now Iím the ďboy who cried wolfĒ. Thereís not one good scenario in any of those.

This whole thing is so strange I keep thinking Iím going to wake up at any moment.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Mar 30th, 2020 at 2:43pm
I know what you mean. Every time I have even a bit of a tickle in my throat I start thinking "Is this it then? Have I already passed it on? Am I going to hear about it burning it's way through our ward?". I think by the time this is over, everyone will know someone at least affected if not killed by it. One of my parent's neighbour's children had it but has now recovered. I'm sure more people I know will get it eventually.

There was one point a few days ago where it really got to me. I had a real wave of anxiety, but it's not going to help anything so I'm pushing through. As we say in Finland, Tsemppiš!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Mar 31st, 2020 at 1:04am
Iím so sorry to hear about your wifeís friend, Morphy. Thatís awful.
Iím afraid we are going to hear a lot more stories like that in the next few weeks, too. Itís heartbreaking.

Iím mostly worried about my parents and grandparents. My parents are mid 60ís and havenít been taking quarantine seriously. They could easily get it, and thatís bad enough, but my grandfather is so old that the hospital probably wonít bother with ventilators... and my parents, who arenít staying quarantined, are the ones who drop in and check on him regularly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Mar 31st, 2020 at 11:38pm
   Though there are some exceptions people for the most part here in New Jersey seem to be sticking to the quarantine.  In one local township the police broke up two weddings in one day.  My brother died a week or so ago and he doesn't get a funeral because of this.  I had to go shopping two days ago.  The streets were fairly empty.  Roomy Mike works in a hospital so he has all of the latest info.  Sometimes I wish he didn't.  This is a humongous turd sandwich.   I'm sixty five and have never seen anything like this in my life. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 1st, 2020 at 3:18am
So sorry to hear about your brother Rat Man. I really hope this whole situation will be over soon. I know the economic impact is going to be for the long term but at least if the restrictions can soon be relaxed, it will be that bit easier to breathe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 2nd, 2020 at 1:22pm
Effects are now being seen on our little care ward. We still haven't seen any cases but we're running low on gloves and haven't been able to get more in. New rules on hand sanitizer have come in and, surprisingly, what's been running low is the pump bottles. We now have to keep them, wash them and then refill them from the large refill containers. I've heard that some of the big hospitals are starting to run low on PPE which is... scary. The numbers are still looking pretty good and it does seem the measures are working. I think really they should go further, a full, proper lockdown. There are still a few too many people on the buses for my liking.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by slingbadger on Apr 2nd, 2020 at 2:06pm

slingbadger wrote on Mar 30th, 2020 at 7:00am:
I have a friend in the Navy that was just diagnosed. He's on a carrier now quarantined off Guam. There are no isolation facilities on the ships, and the hospital ships are not going to be used. They are totally unprepared for this.

Just got word the Captain of the ship sent personal messages to congress and the President asking for what they need to fight the virus. they were turned down.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Apr 2nd, 2020 at 2:23pm
And here we go: 1 Mio. confirmed cases worldwide.† :'(

On the bright side: The number of new cases in Switzerland is hovering more or less at a stable level since ~20.3. The measures seem to work somewhat. Still no curfew. But the government made it quite clear that if people would go to their summerhouses over easter, that there will be "further measures".

I have heard of one or two shops, which opened again, after the complete staff recovered from the infection.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by slingbadger on Apr 3rd, 2020 at 6:47am

slingbadger wrote on Apr 2nd, 2020 at 2:06pm:

slingbadger wrote on Mar 30th, 2020 at 7:00am:
I have a friend in the Navy that was just diagnosed. He's on a carrier now quarantined off Guam. There are no isolation facilities on the ships, and the hospital ships are not going to be used. They are totally unprepared for this.

Just got word the Captain of the ship sent personal messages to congress and the President asking for what they need to fight the virus. they were turned down.

And now the Captain is fired for trying to protect the men.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Apr 3rd, 2020 at 7:51am
If you read past the headlines, thereís a little more nuance to the story.  The captain was relieved of duty for leaking information about the shipís degraded capabilities due to the virus outbreak and for causing a panic stateside with the families who canít do anything about it. They commended him for trying to protect the sailors but fired him for doing it the wrong way. His public cry for help undermined the shipís deterrence mission by giving too many details and alerting our enemies to the fact that the ship cannot continue to function at full capacity.  Thatís a big no-no!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Apr 3rd, 2020 at 2:09pm
   As most of  you know, I'm 65.  There has been nothing like this in my lifetime or even my parents'.  You have to go all the way back to WWI and the Spanish Flu to find something equivalent to this. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 3rd, 2020 at 2:44pm
Just pulled a 14 hour shift. Nothing compared to a lot of the amazing people that are working on the front line, but it shows it's affecting even the small places like us. They couldn't find anyone to cover the evening shift so I did both morning and evening, 7 - 21. I'm in awe of the nurses and doctors fighting this virus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Apr 3rd, 2020 at 7:27pm

NooneOfConsequence wrote on Apr 3rd, 2020 at 7:51am:
If you read past the headlines, thereís a little more nuance to the story.† The captain was relieved of duty for leaking information about the shipís degraded capabilities due to the virus outbreak and for causing a panic stateside with the families who canít do anything about it. They commended him for trying to protect the sailors but fired him for doing it the wrong way. His public cry for help undermined the shipís deterrence mission by giving too many details and alerting our enemies to the fact that the ship cannot continue to function at full capacity.† Thatís a big no-no!


https://twitter.com/i/status/1246071103191224322
Cpt. Crozier will be reinstated the instant Biden is sworn in.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/1933881

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Apr 4th, 2020 at 12:55am
Well Rat Man... politics is politics, Corona Virus is Corona Virus, and OPSEC is OPSEC. In this case all three tautologies meet in a single story!

The daily koz is far from an unbiased source. Hereís a more fair-minded, fact-based, and non-political take on the story:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32871/navy-sacks-carrier-captain-pulls-another-carrier-off-station-over-covid-19-concerns


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Jauke on Apr 4th, 2020 at 4:35am
Look at what happened the last single month and how fast things are going now.
Now imagine 3-5 months from now.

Things will not return to normal any times soon. The world may never be like we were used to after this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by vetryan15 on Apr 4th, 2020 at 5:34am
As of yesterday,  we had our 1st case confirmed in the town where i work, there is also 1 unconfirmed case as well. Since i work in a grocery store,  thats the new hang out for people who get bored. I see most of the same people in the store almost daily.  I see the carts full of food. I am curious if most of these people binge eat out of boredom.  I know some do. Maine isnt known for its fitness, its the opposite.  So we shall see how this goes.  Some humor,  i am hoping for some extra vacation time, i have plenty to do so bordom for me isnt an issue. Never ending chores, and its still getting below freezing, we still have the woodstove going.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Apr 4th, 2020 at 8:13am
Be careful out there vet. A week after our first case, we had about 10, and now we have hundreds. It escalated really quickly.

I may break out the old 3D printer and try making NIH-approved face shields this weekend.

There are a lot of designs floating around, but these have been tested and approved by the medical community:

https://3dprint.nih.gov/

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by vetryan15 on Apr 4th, 2020 at 9:07am
I been trying,  but i do janitorial work. So i am constantly cleaning.  And unfortunately Most Mainers are NOT that bright. So they dont think any rules apply to them, or think they can do whatever they want. I have come to terms, that I WILL most likely get it. Its just a matter of time. Just due to the nature of my job, and even with me doing as many precautions  as we are taking at the store. Its just that the locals, dont care, or dont realize the severity of this situation. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Apr 4th, 2020 at 9:35pm

NooneOfConsequence wrote on Apr 4th, 2020 at 12:55am:
Well Rat Man... politics is politics, Corona Virus is Corona Virus, and OPSEC is OPSEC. In this case all three tautologies meet in a single story!

The daily koz is far from an unbiased source. Hereís a more fair-minded, fact-based, and non-political take on the story:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32871/navy-sacks-carrier-captain-pulls-another-carrier-off-station-over-covid-19-concerns

This is certainly a very interesting story.  I had trouble with the link you posted.  I got the headline and nothing else. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by walter on Apr 6th, 2020 at 11:46pm
LP heading off to WalMart

2020-04-06_20_41_32-1.jpg (15 KB | 8 )

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 7th, 2020 at 5:54pm
Not sure if Iíve already said this here and Iím too lazy to reread the whole thread but I want an old time plague mask to use on 911 calls. That would go over well with my Captain Iím sure.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Apr 7th, 2020 at 9:19pm
https://m.banggood.com/Outdoor-Game-Brown-PU-Leather-Steampunk-Plague-Bird-Nose-Mask-Gothic-Halloween-Party-Costume-p-1218672.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Apr 7th, 2020 at 9:21pm
Thereís one for you Morphy

Banggood has vinyl versions for under $20, but the leather one is probably worth the extra cost

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 8th, 2020 at 10:10am

NooneOfConsequence wrote on Apr 7th, 2020 at 9:21pm:
Thereís one for you Morphy

Banggood has vinyl versions for under $20, but the leather one is probably worth the extra cost


Beautiful. Nothing says ďweíre here to helpĒ like a plague mask.  :)

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Apr 9th, 2020 at 10:48am
Dusted off the old 3D printer this week since the new hotness at all the popular grocery stores is face coverings. Next I plan to pull out the sewing machine and start making masks from cut up HEPA vacuum bags. Not quite as cool as Morphyís plague mask, but maybe I can still figure out how to stuff my face shield with potpourri  ;D
24404A03-CDE5-4183-B979-CF49CD468981.jpeg (56 KB | 6 )

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 9th, 2020 at 3:31pm
It looks very good. You guys with your 3D printers amaze me. That being said you may want to hold on to it for the next plague. You all will be happy to hear that I have officially cancelled the pandemic. It turns out oil of oregano and Rose Quartz crystals will cleanse your aura thus making the virus inert. Yes. Iíve been in quarantine too long. Just saying.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 9th, 2020 at 4:09pm
Please don't joke... One of my Facebook friends, when coronavirus really started hitting, started posting about "vitamin supplements" that "boost immunity". They were vague enough to not come out and say straight "These random pills will cure coronavirus" but if someone is selling water during a house fire, you can be fairly sure it isn't for drinking... I shared a Tweet that was calling people out that do that as being scum effectively which was then liked by a number of mutual friends so they must have seen it. They stopped posting about vitamins pretty soon after. Oh yeah, this friend is also a nurse and we studied together. Terrifying. They're a nice person, but they have a bullshit magnet on their forehead. Either a magnet or the word "Sucker".

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by joe_meadmaker on Apr 9th, 2020 at 5:54pm
I had a big sigh of relief today.† Last weekend my dad started feeling sick and ended up getting tested.† He got the result today and it was negative.† Like I said, big sigh of relief.† Nothing but sympathy for the people whose tests come out otherwise.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Mersa on Apr 9th, 2020 at 6:48pm
good news joe

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 10th, 2020 at 7:17am
One of our residents has a cough. No temperature and no other symptoms but still. A cough.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 10th, 2020 at 8:20am
Good to hear Joe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Apr 10th, 2020 at 2:49pm
   Very good to hear, Joe.
    The economic devastation from this pandemic is almost incomprehensible. Consider how many small businesses were  surviving month to month or week to week.  How many countless thousands have or will go out of business.  I don't have the figures but I can imagine millions ending up unemployed.  I don't wish to spread doom and gloom but another depression seems like a done deal.  On a global scale trillions of dollars are being lost.   

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 11th, 2020 at 7:10pm

Kick wrote on Apr 9th, 2020 at 4:09pm:
Please don't joke... One of my Facebook friends, when coronavirus really started hitting, started posting about "vitamin supplements" that "boost immunity". They were vague enough to not come out and say straight "These random pills will cure coronavirus" but if someone is selling water during a house fire, you can be fairly sure it isn't for drinking... I shared a Tweet that was calling people out that do that as being scum effectively which was then liked by a number of mutual friends so they must have seen it. They stopped posting about vitamins pretty soon after. Oh yeah, this friend is also a nurse and we studied together. Terrifying. They're a nice person, but they have a bullshit magnet on their forehead. Either a magnet or the word "Sucker".


Since Covid-19 is not caused by a vitamin deficiency its amazing to me that anyone could think taking vitamins would cure it. But to each there own. As you know probably as well as anyone you canít save a person from themselves if they are determined to stupid. Donít let my poor attempt at satire push any your buttons. It was aimed at the people you are calling out.  ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 12th, 2020 at 3:36am

Morphy wrote on Apr 11th, 2020 at 7:10pm:
Donít let my poor attempt at satire push any your buttons. It was aimed at the people you are calling out.

The best comedy comes from tragedy :D

We have a resident that is really pretty "with it" and is basically only physically disabled and she often goes to the nearby shop in a wheelchair (or someone else goes because there's a pandemic...). She buys all sorts of sweets and crisps (chips for the Americans) and coke and loads of cheese. She'll then not eat any of the food we provide and just eat all the junk and keep putting on weight. One of my colleagues asked her straight "Do you realise this stuff is really bad for you?" and she just said "Yes" and went right back to eating. She has the right to do it, but it's not nice to see. As you said, you ca't save some people from themselves.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 12th, 2020 at 7:22am
For me the worst are the coke addicts. I canít tell you how many people in their late 30ís early 40ís Iíve seen with CHF and strokes. That drug is just evil. It blows your cardiovascular system all to hell. I was offered it once by a surgeon who was performing nasal surgery on me. I said, HELL NO. Not interested doc. I have all the sympathy in the world for people who get addicted. Iím not calling anyone out, hell Iíve done more than my share of psychedelics and tend towards an addictive personality if Im not careful. (Coffee right now being my biggest advesary.) But I wish I could just show these people the end result of heavy cocaine use. Its so ugly. Nothing glamorous about it.

Anyways!! Back to the far more (?) glamourous Coronavirus, or at least those very sexy doctors and nurses putting their lives on the line for us meat-bag virus factories.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 12th, 2020 at 8:34am
I meant coca cola but you're not wrong :D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Curious Aardvark on Apr 12th, 2020 at 9:38am
The interesting thing about vitamin c is that numerous medical tests and surveys agree that taking a decent does every day will help with a number of conditions - diabetes among them.

I've been on a 1000mg vit c supplement for a number of years.
Not saying it's why I'm still alive and the dr's were gobsmacked that this was the case last year.
But it can't hurt :-)

There is no current anti covid miracle drug, but keeping general health and immunity as strong as possible has to help.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Apr 13th, 2020 at 9:20am
   
Curious Aardvark wrote on Apr 12th, 2020 at 9:38am:
The interesting thing about vitamin c is that numerous medical tests and surveys agree that taking a decent does every day will help with a number of conditions - diabetes among them.

I've been on a 1000mg vit c supplement for a number of years.
Not saying it's why I'm still alive and the dr's were gobsmacked that this was the case last year.
But it can't hurt :-)

There is no current anti covid miracle drug, but keeping general health and immunity as strong as possible has to help.


     Agreed.  I have my vitamin regimen. Every day it's a multi, fish oil, E, D, calcium, and glucosamine. Unless you are an expert on nutrition  and make it and obsession it is next to impossible to get every vitamin and mineral your body needs from your diet.  At best taking supplements, even if it's just a multi, will help you to ward off many ills.  At worst it does no harm. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 13th, 2020 at 11:37am
All true about vitamins, but those people that are using this current situation and often prey on people with complex, dangerous illnesses for profit disgust me. Hocking vitamins as cure-all's...

There was a girl that I went to high school with whose whole family were into homeopathy, antivax, "natural" cures and distrusted doctors. The mother of the family died of advanced ovarian cancer because she had refused to go to a doctor for months. Whilst the tumours grew, she was drinking infinitesimally small amounts of wolfsbane or some such nonsense and getting healing energy crystals waved over her. She only went to a hospital when she was blacking out and it was too late. Left behind her husband and 6 kids. At least the homeopathy healer she was going to made a packet before she died...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Apr 13th, 2020 at 5:13pm
   Also taking too many vitamins will do you no good.  Your body can only absorb so much.  Beyond that you're just burning out your kidneys. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 15th, 2020 at 4:16pm
There is something I find strange about how the numbers are being reported. The current national policy for reporting Covid deaths is based not on whether the patient has died of Covid but whether the patient actually has Covid.

The vast majority of patients with this disease either have no symptoms or very mild symptoms. The majority of those with severe symptoms donít die as well further increasing the amount of people that survive. We are likely massively overstating the amount of deaths here in the States at least.

Now some might say this is ok because the ends justify the means. Overstating the danger is safer than understating it.  That is true. But this is not good science.  Itís not good medicine. Truth matters. Facts matter. We donít record deaths this way in any other illness that I know of.  It makes no sense from a medical point of view to record numbers this way. It does make good political sense but I wonít go there.


Anyways Iím not saying anyone should take this lightly. I just donít agree with standards as they are. If anyone knows a good reason to actually do it this way please feel free to enlighten me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Apr 15th, 2020 at 10:33pm
† †There's somewhat of a gray area there, Morphy.† Just to use an example that I'm familiar with, lets say I've just done year one of my battle with Lyme Disease.† My immune system is shot from it and I catch Covid19 and die.† If I didn't have Lyme Disease I probably would have recovered from the Covid19 so was it the Lyme Disease that killed me?† If I didn't catch the Covid19 then I eventually recover from the Lyme Disease and live happily ever after.†
† †† Or we'll use another example I'm familiar with... my late wife's cancer.† Let's say that she's in the first year of her cancer.† Her immune system is already severely compromised. Then she gets Covid19 and dies from it.† Was it the cancer or the Covid19.† If she doesn't get Covid19 she lives for another eight years.†
† † Can you see my point?† Maybe the reporting isn't all that bogus.
† † In any case, if the authorities are overstating the problem that may be a good thing.† Even with all of the warnings and edicts you still have idiot Spring Breakers partying like mad, people flocking to the beaches in California, people attending religions services, etc..† Imagine if we understated the danger.†
† †† Anyway, I can't wait until this shit is over.† Though I'm still fairly strong and healthy, I'm fat and old with asthma.† I imagine I'd recover but who really knows.† Roomy Mike works in a hospital.  He takes all due precautions but just the same this at least partially minimizes the effectiveness of my self quarantine so there's that.   And as pathetic as this sounds bowling was pretty much my social life.† I miss it.† If not for the dogs I'd probably really be climbing the walls.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by walter on Apr 16th, 2020 at 12:28am
In AZ, the state and counties are reporting confirmed cases of covid and deaths resulting from covid. Not included are the thousands? that recover at home without reporting their illness. If not reported, how do the authorities know this?
In this county there are five confirmed cases from a poulation of approx 54000. That is 0.0009259% of our population. I have a better chance of winning the lotto. But, how many have not been reported. Bugging out @ a reported 5% :-/

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Apr 16th, 2020 at 4:31am

Morphy wrote on Apr 15th, 2020 at 4:16pm:
It makes no sense from a medical point of view to record numbers this way.


How would you like to have the numbers reported instead?
The number of healthy people which died without any other causes? But that also does not reflect reality, because a large part of the population has preexisting causes.

Testing everyone everyday is a) not feasible b) also not a solution because then we run into a world of trouble with false positives etc.

You could look at comorbity numbers if you want. The values I have available say about 1% probability to die without any preexisting condition. With a preexisting one it is much higher. Then we can also factor age in etc. to make it even more complex.

The reality is: We have no perfect numbers and there exists no single number to capture it all. Any reported number is, by the very nature of the problem, not what is happening in reality. Its an estimate, with an error. Knowing what this error is, is as much worth as knowing the number.†
And we don't know this error, but we can estimate it. And so on...
Which number would you like? The one which is likely too high, or the one which is likely too low?
One of the issues is, that accurately measuring this pandemic is very difficult.
What I like to do is just to compare all different countries, with all the different reporting standards, demographics etc. , take the lowest number, take the highest number, and reality might be somewhere in between. Or not. Thus, my guess is: probability to die once infected, averaged over quite everything, might be in the range 0.5%† to 5%. Thus, an uncertainty on the order of a factor 10x. Which is still oversimplifying the problem considerably.

The overall effect of the pandemic in Switzerland is sometimes measured in "‹bersterblichkeit", translated as excess mortality / extramortality. This is the number of deaths occuring at the moment versus the average expected number of deaths usually occuring at this time of the year.
It is spiking, faster than in a year with a heavy flu epidemic. Strongly for old people, very slightly for the younger ones. The only conclusion from that is: we currently have a problem and it seems to be worse than a heavy flu year, where no countermeasures were taken. For how much worse it will get, please consult your crystal ball, your gut feeling, or any educated guess from any modeling you can do† :D.

PS: I take the modeling, please. The result is probably not accurate. But if the other ones are correct, it's sheer luck.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 16th, 2020 at 5:51am

Teg wrote on Apr 16th, 2020 at 4:31am:

Morphy wrote on Apr 15th, 2020 at 4:16pm:
It makes no sense from a medical point of view to record numbers this way.


How would you like to have the numbers reported instead?


Why Iím glad you asked my good man!  :D

Comorbidities are fine. For example, Patient has Covid and develops pneumonia and dies. Thatís a Covid death.

RMís example is another good one. Patient has cancer which weakens the immune system allowing patient to die from Covid when they might have shrugged it off. Also fine. The key here is the cancer weakened them but the Covid actually killed them.

Two examples that are not acceptable

1. Patient is morbidly obese, has an itchy throat but nothing else but presents to the ED with an acute myocardial infarction. Doc begins treating the AMI and learns the patient has an itchy throat so decides to run a Covid test. Patient returns a positive Covid test although nearly asymptomatic. Patient then throws a clot and dies of a massive coronary. That patient according to current guidelines is a Covid death. When the news mentions a man died of Covid in X hospital people think that poor bastard, he must have suffered an agonizing death. In fact he died within minutes of a massive coronary.

More extreme example:
Patient gets in a MVC. His car is wrecked, so is his body. Heís brought into the ED and the doc learns from his daughter that his wife has Covid. The patient had no symptoms whatsoever but to know which unit to place him in he runs a Covid test. The test comes back positive and the patient bleeds out due to his injuries shortly thereafter. Viola, another Covid death.

This is happening. These are not pie in the sky examples. My mom is regional director of a large hospice corporation. All of their patients are terminal, many are getting ready to die any day. If they return a positive Covid test, regardless if it has ANY effect on their actual death, they are Covid deaths. Thatís a huge a problem.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 16th, 2020 at 5:58am
To elaborate just a bit more- Why is that a huge problem?

Well, one of many reasons is the severity of the situation is shaping policy. This policy is drastically affecting our economy. If our economy crashed in a big way (which is not  an unlikely scenario if this keeps going on) Many, many people could die from it. Not in as straightforward a way as a pandemic, but in a myriad of different ways that have been laid out by those more educated than I and I wonít go into here though it is worth looking into for those who have not.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Teg on Apr 16th, 2020 at 7:02am
Ah, I see which line of thought you are going down. Thanks for the elaboration. Yes, in view of this, a more detailed reporting is useful.  Which is done in Switzerland.

That's why I like the excess mortality, as it takes care of these effects.

MVC: Motor vehicle crash? (non-native speaker over here.)



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Jauke on Apr 16th, 2020 at 1:23pm
The amount of people on the IC here is going down every day.

I no longer believe this virus is as big a threat as I thought.

Yes, the death rate is high if you compare it to the confirmed cases.
But the confirmed cases doesn't represent the actual amount of cases. The actual amount is probably be
100-1000 times higher.† And if you than compare the death rate to that, it all suddenly seems like not much worse than a regular flu.

And I don't believe it's due to the quarantine measures at all. No quarantine can stop a highly contagious virus like this. Chances most people in my country had it and survived it

I, my whole family and many I knew had a little flu about a month ago. That's all.

If this is the case, than it means all of this was an exercise in government control and/or an attempt to crash the global economy

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Jauke on Apr 16th, 2020 at 1:30pm
For example, 650k confirmed cases in the States.
Now what does that even mean?  All those people infected others in the incubation period and they did as well. The real amount of cases could be 65 million  or more.

And 65 million / 33,490 deaths that gives a death rate of 0.05%
The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the US



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 16th, 2020 at 3:45pm
It's not really about the death rate though. It's the number of people sick putting strain on health services. Having a lot of people turn up in an emergency department all at once with breathing difficulties, even if they recover, puts a huge strain on services, personnel and resources. We don't have these same stresses with a regular flu season. This came out of nowhere (though was predictable...).

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Apr 17th, 2020 at 1:24pm
    I think  I've seen this movie before.  By Fall we have a good grip on the situation.  Then the Coronavirus mutates into something far worse and life as we know it is changed forever. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 17th, 2020 at 1:26pm
Too late for that. I think we'll be entering 2021 with a lot of people still in isolation.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Bill Skinner on Apr 18th, 2020 at 10:42am
It doesn't really matter how many people got it and recovered, in the States, it has already killed as many people in two months as the flu does in a year.  So, it's a lot worse than the flu.

I sort of wonder if the reason the death rate levels off is because it will have killed off the people with the most underlying problems in an area and most people with no underlying health problems will just get it and not have any problems.

And the ones who aren't having any problems are just walking around giving it to everybody else.  Who get it and don't have problems and give it to everybody else, who don't have problems...up until it kills Grandma.  Because she's elderly and has a weaker immune system.

But with the lack of testing by most countries, we'll never know.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Jauke on Apr 19th, 2020 at 5:05pm
https://www.rt.com/usa/486183-stanford-coronavirus-infection-rate-higher/

A recent Stanford University study found the Covid-19 infection rate is probably between 50 and 85 times higher than official figures had previously indicated. The study looked for antibodies in 3,330 people in Santa Clara County. Antibodies develop in the blood after someone has been infected with the coronavirus and cleared it. And a much greater proportion of Santa Clarans had them than official figures had at that point suggested.
If the findings ó which have yet to be peer reviewed ó are sound, then it takes yet another thick slice off the mortality rate of Covid-19. It would now be something under 0.14 percent, putting it on a par with, or even lower than, the seasonal flu.


Link to study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 19th, 2020 at 5:10pm
Good catch Jauke. If that is the case, that coupled with what I mentioned earlier means we have potentially played a very dangerous game with our economy.  I assume they are not even considering the national guidelines of categorizing all covid positive patient deaths as covid deaths which means it could be far less lethal than the flu. Letís hope this was all worth it. Time will tell.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Apr 20th, 2020 at 8:38am

J wrote on Apr 19th, 2020 at 5:05pm:
https://www.rt.com/usa/486183-stanford-coronavirus-infection-rate-higher/

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1


This study is trying to get a decent estimate for the asymptomatic infection, but has come in for some criticism. A blog post which covers the aspects the author dislikes: https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25



Morphy wrote on Apr 19th, 2020 at 5:10pm:
Good catch Jauke. If that is the case, that coupled with what I mentioned earlier means we have potentially played a very dangerous game with our economy.† I assume they are not even considering the national guidelines of categorizing all covid positive patient deaths as covid deaths which means it could be far less lethal than the flu. Letís hope this was all worth it. Time will tell.


The CDC guidelines supply codes for the disease from some time around a month ago. Death certificates should be distinguishing between cases in which COVID-19 is considered to be a contributing factor and where it is not, regardless of whether a positive test was recorded.

The decision makers should certainly be making their decisions on data which is as accurate as possible, and they should be well aware of potential bias within the reporting. The decision to 'shut down' the economy, or at least some bits of it - not Wall Street, obviously† ::) - made sense to people at the time.

Misattribution of the role of COVID-19 in deaths can be argued in both directions.

It's clear we are already into the 'was it worth it?' stage of this business. So I guess that is a sign of progress.

Amazing how easily we can now write off around 36,000 deaths in the U.S. over such a short period.† :(


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 20th, 2020 at 9:12am
I saw a post that was saying that there are two options in this sort of situation: shut everything down entirely and then have everyone ask if it was worth it and complain about the consequences or you can not do that and be brought to trial later and everyone complain about the consequences. It's difficult to win.

The microcosm of this is our ward. We had a suspected case, isolated the person, isolated the room they were previously in and all the people they shared the room with. We used the masks and gowns and gloves and everything, supplies of which are very limited, and waited for the test results. Negative. We had "wasted that PPE because they didn't have coronavirus (they seem to have a different virus but if we imagine the scenario that they came back with a clean bill of health for the sake of the metaphor), but... what if they did have coronavirus? You have to take things like this seriously because over reacting can be bad but under-reacting leads to people dying. At city-scale, country-scale, global-scale, that's a LOT of people dying, which is what we've seen.

There can be no denying that this virus is incredibly contagious. It's lethality at the present moment is not really the point, it COULD mutate into something truly horrific and the further it's spread, the more people it's infected, the likelihood of that happening increases (and as previously mentioned, the strain put on hospitals by sick people can be it's own danger). We need to stop people getting this virus because it's so easy to catch and is already very dangerous for the old and health compromised. If it got even a tiny bit more dangerous, that's potentially millions of more deaths.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 20th, 2020 at 2:18pm

wanderer wrote on Apr 20th, 2020 at 8:38am:
[quote author=6E65716F612A4C040 link=1583979728/171#171 date=1587330348]

It's clear we are already into the 'was it worth it?' stage of this business. So I guess that is a sign of progress.

Amazing how easily we can now write off around 36,000 deaths in the U.S. over such a short period.† :(



I would call that inevitable actually Wanderer. Unless this virus was 10 times worse than what we are seeing, such second guessing was inevitable. For political and economic reasons at the very least. And before anyone decides whether it was worth it I think it would be prudent to wait and see what happens with the economy.

While most seem to be firmly in the corner of pro-quarantine (I am on the fence at the moment, not anti-quarantine just to make that clear) itís† premature to make a decision on this subject until we see how this plays out.

Some economists are now saying if the economy isnít opened soon we could be in for another Great Depression. Iíve mentioned in the past that I enjoy history and looking at the patterns that seem to follow in relatively predictable cycles.

Assuming America falls into a serious economic downturn the world will not be immune to that pain as we are in a global economy. Historically speaking major depressions precede war, as war is one of the fastest ways to restart an economy. So before we can decide that this was all worth it for a death rate that is on par with many normal illnesses, I would caution everyone to wait and see. Whatís done is done now. Right now itís very easy to look at the potential pandemic and say of course shutting everyone down was the only sane move. But that is a position that only exists because we havenít see the other side here. How bad an economic downturn must we have before we decide it wasnít worth it? We donít know yet, since weíve only seen one side.

I realize Iím throwing out a lot of stuff here. Iím not claiming this is going to be an over night process. Far from it. I want this here for posterity sake. Iím willing to post my thoughts on this online so later on I can come back here and see how close or far away from the mark I was.

As far as the overall death toll and the infection rates, a study done in California has shown that almost a hundred times more people have antibodies for this virus than was previously thought. Now, as with all studies, some people question the validity, but thatís what the tests show. Which suggests this has been going around much longer than previously thought. Draw your own conclusions.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 20th, 2020 at 6:44pm

Morphy wrote on Apr 20th, 2020 at 2:18pm:

wanderer wrote on Apr 20th, 2020 at 8:38am:
[quote author=6E65716F612A4C040 link=1583979728/171#171 date=1587330348]

It's clear we are already into the 'was it worth it?' stage of this business. So I guess that is a sign of progress.

Amazing how easily we can now write off around 36,000 deaths in the U.S. over such a short period.† :(



I would call that inevitable actually Wanderer. Unless this virus was 10 times worse than what we are seeing, such second guessing was inevitable. For political and economic reasons at the very least. And before anyone decides whether it was worth it I think it would be prudent to wait and see what happens with the economy.

While most seem to be firmly in the corner of pro-quarantine (I am on the fence at the moment, not anti-quarantine just to make that clear) itís† premature to make a decision on this subject until we see how this plays out.

Some economists are now saying if the economy isnít opened soon we could be in for another Great Depression. Iíve mentioned in the past that I enjoy history and looking at the patterns that seem to follow in relatively predictable cycles.

Assuming America falls into a serious economic downturn the world will not be immune to that pain as we are in a global economy. Historically speaking major depressions precede war, as war is one of the fastest ways to restart an economy. So before we can decide that this was all worth it for a death rate that is on par with many normal illnesses, I would caution everyone to wait and see. Whatís done is done now. Right now itís very easy to look at the potential pandemic and say of course shutting everyone down was the only sane move. But that is a position that only exists because we havenít see the other side here. How bad an economic downturn must we have before we decide it wasnít worth it? We donít know yet, since weíve only seen one side.

I realize Iím throwing out a lot of stuff here. Iím not claiming this is going to be an over night process. Far from it. I want this here for posterity sake. Iím willing to post my thoughts on this online so later on I can come back here and see how close or far away from the mark I was.

As far as the overall death toll and the infection rates, a study done in California has shown that almost a hundred times more people have antibodies for this virus than was previously thought. Now, as with all studies, some people question the validity, but thatís what the tests show. Which suggests this has been going around much longer than previously thought. Draw your own conclusions.


Oil crashes below zero for first time ever.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Apr 21st, 2020 at 12:31am
@Morphy: itís true that historically speaking, the solution to economic collapse is war, but when both the economy and the collapse happen globally... whoís on the other side to fight???

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Apr 21st, 2020 at 4:35am
I really think the virus has knocked a lot of the wind out the various generals of the world. People keep forgetting, but we were seemingly on the brink of a nuclear war between the US and Iran in JANUARY! It feels like a thousand years ago now.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 21st, 2020 at 6:27am

NooneOfConsequence wrote on Apr 21st, 2020 at 12:31am:
@Morphy: itís true that historically speaking, the solution to economic collapse is war, but when both the economy and the collapse happen globally... whoís on the other side to fight???


We are a global economy not a global nation state. But maybe after all this we will be who knows. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Apr 21st, 2020 at 8:26am
how can oil have negative price?


NooneOfConsequence wrote on Apr 21st, 2020 at 12:31am:
whoís on the other side to fight???


that was never a problem :P

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Apr 21st, 2020 at 8:39am

Morphy wrote on Apr 20th, 2020 at 2:18pm:
as war is one of the fastest ways to restart an economy

what does war offer that peace cannot?

more people accepting death and injustice?

economy can be fixed if people are willing , those who are not willing to fix the problems are those who benefit from a war. I believe that there are faster ways to restart economy than a war.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 21st, 2020 at 9:00am
Im not advocating it Iím pointing out historical patterns. None of us want war Iím sure. The closest I come to wanting war is playing call of duty mobile which is a great game by the way.  ;D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Apr 21st, 2020 at 10:48am
I wanted to point out that a bad economy although it might be connected to war  it is not necessarily the main thing that contributes to it . A thriving/growing economy might lead to war as well.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 21st, 2020 at 11:41am
@Sarosh Point taken. One doesnít always lead to another. But low resources does tend to exacerbate already strained relations making it more likely.

Shifting directions just a little here is an interesting hot mic moment.

https://youtu.be/dCo0q9ZM62w


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Apr 21st, 2020 at 11:56am
That hot mic seems fake to me Morphy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Apr 21st, 2020 at 12:13pm
Now come on Wall Street don't be slow,
This here's war a go go,
There's plenty of money to be made,
Supplyin' the army with the tools of the trade....

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 21st, 2020 at 12:31pm

NooneOfConsequence wrote on Apr 21st, 2020 at 11:56am:
That hot mic seems fake to me Morphy.


In this day and age it could be. Iím pretty sure Golden State Times is a legit publication though. I looked into it a little. Iím not vouching for it, but if real itís interesting. Given how little itís actually been covered that does make me a bit suspicious.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Curious Aardvark on Apr 21st, 2020 at 3:11pm
I am a lot more anti social than I realised.

The thing I'm looking forward to when the quarantine ends (next year maybe) is meeting LESS people.

I like going out with the dogs into a quiet unpopulated piece of the countryside.
At the moment there are bloody people every sodding where !

Poeple walking by themselves, families walking and on bike, idiots running, weirdos with dogs that appear to have never been outside before let alone ever met another dog.

Met a couple today.
Me and dream and phoebe are ambling along - minding our own business while dodging the bikes, joggers and other bikes.

Guy runs past me and shouts: 'can you put your dog on it's lead there's a dog coming that's not friendly.'
By the time I looked to see where phoebe was - this idiots wife had already run up to us with a really nasty doberman bitch - and no they don't put a muzzle on it.

If you're going to run interference for a dog you KNOW is nasty and you're too irrisponsble to use a muzzle. Then for christs sake get far enough ahead to make it worth the effort.

Fortunates both ours avoid dodgy dogs.

I just want all these people to go back home and watch their idiot boxes like they always used to !

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Curious Aardvark on Apr 21st, 2020 at 3:14pm
Apparently the reason oil can have a negative price is because they've run out of storage and nobody has considered NOT pumping it out of the ground.
So they're paying people to take it away and store it, which is why it's now got a negative value.

Looking forward to the day I fill my car up and they Give ME £40 :-)

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Apr 21st, 2020 at 4:49pm

Sarosh wrote on Apr 21st, 2020 at 8:26am:
how can oil have negative price?


Itís pretty simple: stock traders in New York buy contracts for delivery of oil a few weeks or months in the future.  Normally the contract is re-sold at a profit to someone who needs the oil at the scheduled delivery date, but demand dropped out and all the places that store oil are filling up. Contractually that means that stock trader has to receive the oil... I guess to his fancy New York apartment! Those people are willing to pay people to take the oil off their hands because they literally have no place to put it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 22nd, 2020 at 4:36pm
So turns out that video is not a hoax. It is John Roberts the White House corespondent for Fox News and New York Times photographer Doug Mills.

They claim the whole thing is just a joke. I guess thatís really the only thing you could say. If a preliminary vaccine was available to those people around the President all the time none of us would be told, probably under threat of a national security violation. No one is claiming itís not real though. AP has already run a story on it as have others.

John Roberts has dismissed it as a joke. But listen to it and make up your own mind. If itís a joke it sure doesnít sound like it. In poor taste As well all things considered.  The study he cited In the recording is real I have no reason to think the rest is not.

Guess we get to file this in the ďThe peasants will never know for sureĒ right next to ďEpstein definitely, for super sure killed himself so stop askingĒ

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on Apr 23rd, 2020 at 2:40am
@ NooneOfConsequence

thanks for the concise answer


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Apr 23rd, 2020 at 3:24am

Quote:
I would call that inevitable actually Wanderer. Unless this virus was 10 times worse than what we are seeing, such second guessing was inevitable. For political and economic reasons at the very least. And before anyone decides whether it was worth it I think it would be prudent to wait and see what happens with the economy.

I agree about the inevitability - FWIW it was one of the points I made on this thread, perhaps rather irritably, quite early on - but I would argue we would still reach that stage even if the fatality rate was ten times higher. The dynamics might be a little different because direct personal loss or pain would be imposed on more people.


Quote:
Assuming America falls into a serious economic downturn the world will not be immune to that pain as we are in a global economy. Historically speaking major depressions precede war, as war is one of the fastest ways to restart an economy. So before we can decide that this was all worth it for a death rate that is on par with many normal illnesses, I would caution everyone to wait and see. Whatís done is done now. Right now itís very easy to look at the potential pandemic and say of course shutting everyone down was the only sane move. But that is a position that only exists because we havenít see the other side here. How bad an economic downturn must we have before we decide it wasnít worth it? We donít know yet, since weíve only seen one side.


There is not one 'we', and the personal calculations during and after will be different for each of us. It is already clear that those calculations will be highly dependent on political stance, at least in the U.S., less so I think in most other countries. I'd be interested in how people living elsewhere think that will pan out.

That would be so even without the heavy factionalizing present in so many of the media sources.

I'd also point out that although it is clearly fair to look back on how this was handled, the† '20/20 in hindsight' notion obviously applies. People can be making perfectly reasonable decisions in lack of knowledge which the crystal ball shows are not optimal. It's thoroughly unfair to castigate people for fault in those cases, although that has never stopped those kinds of 'inquests' in the past.


Quote:
I realize Iím throwing out a lot of stuff here. Iím not claiming this is going to be an over night process. Far from it. I want this here for posterity sake. Iím willing to post my thoughts on this online so later on I can come back here and see how close or far away from the mark I was.

Keep throwing it out there! I appreciate your position, and believe the same. I have no intention of editing or deleting any of my posts on this thread - although there is already one (at least!) I would 'improve' if I gave myself the chance.


Quote:
As far as the overall death toll and the infection rates, a study done in California has shown that almost a hundred times more people have antibodies for this virus than was previously thought. Now, as with all studies, some people question the validity, but thatís what the tests show. Which suggests this has been going around much longer than previously thought. Draw your own conclusions.


I've read about those results. Although I realize it might make me appear 'slippery', the results don't seem much of a surprise. They are consistent as far as I can see with the European studies.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Apr 23rd, 2020 at 3:42am

Morphy wrote on Apr 22nd, 2020 at 4:36pm:
So turns out that video is not a hoax. It is John Roberts the White House corespondent for Fox News and New York Times photographer Doug Mills.

They claim the whole thing is just a joke. I guess thatís really the only thing you could say. If a preliminary vaccine was available to those people around the President all the time none of us would be told, probably under threat of a national security violation. No one is claiming itís not real though. AP has already run a story on it as have others.

John Roberts has dismissed it as a joke. But listen to it and make up your own mind. If itís a joke it sure doesnít sound like it. In poor taste As well all things considered.† The study he cited In the recording is real I have no reason to think the rest is not.

Guess we get to file this in the ďThe peasants will never know for sureĒ right next to ďEpstein definitely, for super sure killed himself so stop askingĒ


Sorry but this video is utterly classic trolling in my opinion.

That doesn't mean I can tell you who the troll is ;).

The mix of truth (the two California studies are true, as far as I can see) and fiction, whether joke or otherwise, about people in the White House being vaccinated, is Propaganda 101.

So, apparently, we have an infection with a quiet low infection fatality rate (ie. why worry about it?), conjoined with the conspiracy-style 'the leaders are all vaccinated and safe against this'.

I find it hard to believe any administration (even this one!) would decide to inoculate themselves with an untried vaccine. Then, we start thinking of reasons why they would have a safe vaccine, and down the rabbit hole we go.  :(







Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by wanderer on Apr 23rd, 2020 at 3:44am

Rat Man wrote on Apr 21st, 2020 at 12:13pm:
Now come on Wall Street don't be slow,
This here's war a go go,
There's plenty of money to be made,
Supplyin' the army with the tools of the trade....


And, hey! There's an election to be won!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Apr 23rd, 2020 at 7:00am

wanderer wrote on Apr 23rd, 2020 at 3:42am:

Morphy wrote on Apr 22nd, 2020 at 4:36pm:
So turns out that video is not a hoax. It is John Roberts the White House corespondent for Fox News and New York Times photographer Doug Mills.

They claim the whole thing is just a joke. I guess thatís really the only thing you could say. If a preliminary vaccine was available to those people around the President all the time none of us would be told, probably under threat of a national security violation. No one is claiming itís not real though. AP has already run a story on it as have others.

John Roberts has dismissed it as a joke. But listen to it and make up your own mind. If itís a joke it sure doesnít sound like it. In poor taste As well all things considered.† The study he cited In the recording is real I have no reason to think the rest is not.

Guess we get to file this in the ďThe peasants will never know for sureĒ right next to ďEpstein definitely, for super sure killed himself so stop askingĒ


Sorry but this video is utterly classic trolling in my opinion.

That doesn't mean I can tell you who the troll is ;).

The mix of truth (the two California studies are true, as far as I can see) and fiction, whether joke or otherwise, about people in the White House being vaccinated, is Propaganda 101.

So, apparently, we have an infection with a quiet low infection fatality rate (ie. why worry about it?), conjoined with the conspiracy-style 'the leaders are all vaccinated and safe against this'.

I find it hard to believe any administration (even this one!) would decide to inoculate themselves with an untried vaccine. Then, we start thinking of reasons why they would have a safe vaccine, and down the rabbit hole we go.† :(


I mean anything is possible?  I personally question whether two people with this kind of access and credentials would make a joke video like this. Especially about this subject. You know what Iím saying? Regardless of actual mortality rate people are dying and losing their livelihoods. Thereís no question that they said it. Itís a real conversation so that leaves the only options as them being serious or they are joking. If joking itís just about the strangest joke Iíve heard. Neither one gives any indication and both seem to be having a legit conversation. I donít know. People can listen for themselves and make up their own mind I guess. Strange video either way.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Apr 30th, 2020 at 5:47pm
   Yes, I am bored. Most of us are.  People are social animals.  We aren't built for this.  But I would much rather be bored than drowning in my own snot in the hospital.  I'll take bored.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by duckdiver on Apr 30th, 2020 at 9:27pm
Coming soon to your local police?

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/30/848327731/how-to-nab-suspects-while-social-distancing-indian-police-try-giant-tongs?utm_source=npr_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20200430&utm_term=4551053&utm_campaign=the-new-normal&utm_id=52937107&orgid=




Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by joe_meadmaker on May 3rd, 2020 at 1:07am
When coronavirus reaches all corners of the empire...


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on May 3rd, 2020 at 4:21am

duckdiver wrote on Apr 30th, 2020 at 9:27pm:
Coming soon to your local police?

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/30/848327731/how-t...


idiots show their real intentions

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on May 4th, 2020 at 9:38pm

Sarosh wrote on May 3rd, 2020 at 4:21am:

duckdiver wrote on Apr 30th, 2020 at 9:27pm:
Coming soon to your local police?

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/30/848327731/how-t...


idiots show their real intentions

   
   I can't imagine such a device being effective.  You'd have to find a suspect who was willing to stand still while you get the stupid thing around him. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Bill Skinner on May 5th, 2020 at 11:22am
Back when people carried swords, Japanese and Chinese police carried long poles with a fork on the end and lots of cords with fishhooks.  Several of them would pin the guy with the forks, the hooks kept him from pulling loose.  A few more would rush the swordsman and and then club him into submission. 

Seemed to work, gunpowder is what made the police stop using that, the swordsman would pull out a gun and start shooting.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on May 8th, 2020 at 4:25pm
   In that I'm retired, other than not bowling two or three times a week my life hasn't been significantly changed by this quarantine.  Without the bowling though one day is the same as the next.  I often have no idea what day of the week it is.  If our so called government  decides that it's time to open things up again I will remain quarantined.  I'm not willing to die to restart our economy.  I will remain as I am now until there's a vaccine. Many feel as I do. Things won't be "normal" again until that vaccine is produced.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on May 9th, 2020 at 1:31am
I don't think anything will be normal again. One thing might be the death of the handshake. I think it was something that younger people weren't that bothered about before anyway and the rise of digital communication was changing things, but now I can't imagine ever shaking someone's hand again comfortably. Then again, I'm a nurse, we never shook hands before the virus anyway. Same as you Ratman, it's going to take a vaccine for me to really feel comfortable and even then there's going to be a lot of idiots that won't get it so it's hard to know at what point I can relax. Now it's out in the wild and mutating, it might be that this is a seasonal thing now or society will just always be far more closed up than it was before. Everything is still so uncertain.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on May 9th, 2020 at 3:31am
can we trust a vaccine that was produced so fast ?
not refusing to vaccinate but I would prefer to be vaccinated last.
It would be nice if we could be sure that scientists worked for science and humanity and not for corporations. if people can print out money and get away with it they will, opportunity makes the thief.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on May 12th, 2020 at 2:06pm
† †We are a hot spot here in the Northeast.† In my county, Camden County New Jersey, there are currently 4,758 cases with 217 deaths.† I am laying as low as possible.† This is a giant turd sandwich.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on May 12th, 2020 at 2:22pm

Sarosh wrote on May 9th, 2020 at 3:31am:
can we trust a vaccine that was produced so fast ?
not refusing to vaccinate but I would prefer to be vaccinated last.
It would be nice if we could be sure that scientists worked for science and humanity and not for corporations. if people can print out money and get away with it they will, opportunity makes the thief.


Too many people donít want to even consider this train of thought.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on May 12th, 2020 at 3:20pm

Rat Man wrote on May 12th, 2020 at 2:06pm:
† †We are a hot spot here in the Northeast.† In my county, Camden County New Jersey, there are currently 4,758 cases with 217 deaths.† I am laying as low as possible.† This is a giant turd sandwich.


What's the population size? Here in Finland we've had 275 throughout the whole country, majority of them being in Uusimaa.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on May 12th, 2020 at 4:25pm

Morphy wrote on May 12th, 2020 at 2:22pm:
Too many people donít want to even consider this train of thought.

lol yes , we could write a book  "the eleventh commandment"    thou shalt not trust

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by perpetualstudent on May 13th, 2020 at 9:21am
RM I think your plan to lie low is the right one. The data seem to show that if you're <45 and have no pre-existing conditions you are probably ok. If you're over 45 AND have health conditions? It's not good.

I'm really lucky, my family has not lost income and is not facing hardship. I know others are facing that. I think we will probably move to a "folks above 45 keep self isolating but the rest of us go back to work". Not for "the economy" but so you can pay your bills.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on May 13th, 2020 at 2:32pm

Kick wrote on May 12th, 2020 at 3:20pm:

Rat Man wrote on May 12th, 2020 at 2:06pm:
† †We are a hot spot here in the Northeast.† In my county, Camden County New Jersey, there are currently 4,758 cases with 217 deaths.† I am laying as low as possible.† This is a giant turd sandwich.


What's the population size? Here in Finland we've had 275 throughout the whole country, majority of them being in Uusimaa.


506,471 was our population in 2019.† Our problem is that we're situated between major cities.  Philadelphia less than twenty miles to our west.  New York City is about a hundred miles to the North.  To the south we have Baltimore, Washington D.C., etc.  The Northeast Corridor is densely populated and a ripe breeding ground for any virus that comes down the pike. If I lived in North Dakota I'd be a lot safer. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on May 13th, 2020 at 2:52pm
Finland has managed to keep a pretty tight lid on it so far. Things are opening up again, slowly, and of course that's where it's most dangerous. I think people are a little bit more relaxed, a few more people on the buses, fewer people wearing masks. I just really hope it doesn't blow up. We've had a handful of instances that seemed worrying, but, for now,† our entire hospital area has had zero cases which is really wonderful.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on May 13th, 2020 at 6:52pm
I know I've said this before. The world won't be "normal" again until there is a vaccine.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by perpetualstudent on May 13th, 2020 at 8:57pm
I am of a pessimistic bent. I'm seriously wondering whether we will get a vaccine that is effective enough to let things go back to normal. It may just be that those who are at risk have to take extraordinary precautions and self isolate. I don't mean that heartlessly, just wondering what the new normal will be.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on May 14th, 2020 at 2:19am
There's already movements linking a coronavirus vaccine to (sticks hand into a hat and pulls out...) George Soros and (hand back in the hat) Bill Gates and (again) Democrats and that it's all a plot to mind control the public or poison them or something equally ridiculous. Even if the vaccine is 100% effective with no side effects (which it won't be because it's impossible) I'm guessing a large number of people won't get it and that could be disastrous if the virus is allowed to mutate.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Sarosh on May 14th, 2020 at 11:44am
It's not that people will use a vaccine to poison others, it's that for the sake of getting a patent first they will care a little less about quality and results. There was a time when scientists were paid to say smoking is good for you. Research is guided and withheld and there is no reason not to.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Curious Aardvark on May 14th, 2020 at 12:59pm
well you can't stop a virus mutating. That's just nature.

A vaccine is needed, but so is a reliable test that says whether you've had it or not.

And a lot more evidence that having had it once you can't:
a) catch it again
b) still be a non-reactive carrier.

That at least will allow people who have had it and don't know - or do know, to go back to normal.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Curious Aardvark on May 14th, 2020 at 1:05pm
Fortunately I've pretty much kicked the diabetes - but apparently just having had it (unknowingly) for some years, puts me into a high risk category.

I'd argue with that - based on evidence that my immune system is still fully functional - my nervous system is a different matter.
But, however you look at it - statistically I am at risk.
Personally I think it went through the midlands like a wildfire in january/february.
And everyone you speak too had the symptoms in those months, some needed antibiotics, some like me, had a 'cold' that took a little longer to kick than usual.

But without the test - there's no way of knowing for sure.

Apparently a test IS about to be rolled out and available on the nhs. So we'll see.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on May 14th, 2020 at 11:49pm
† †Whether or not one can become reinfected is a gray area:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/covid-19-reinfection/ ;

At a family gathering this past Christmas I caught a bug from my nephew from Indiana.  It was like a cold but it took forever to get over.  I'm not convinced that I didn't already have it.  I hope so, even if it means that I'm self quarantining for nothing.  But as c_a mentioned, without testing who the hell knows.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by perpetualstudent on May 15th, 2020 at 7:42am
The problem is that gray area fundamentally changes the game. It's comparatively easy to get a vaccine for chicken pox. Get it once and you're immune. Something like the flu on the other hand is only partially effective. The question is what kind of vaccine will we have? And, for those of us who are at risk, what do we do then? I had been planning on visiting my remaining grandparents this year as they don't have much time they have left. But I don't want to bring this and kill them. I don't know how we will deal with the elderly if this proves to be like the flu in the population instead of like chicken pox. We might have to completely change how we deal with the elderly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on May 15th, 2020 at 8:38am
At my job in an old folks home, the new guidance is we have to wear a mask when in close proximity to our clients for more than 15 minutes. Apparently coronavirus waits 15 minutes before pouncing... I understand that they HAVE to give firm guidance, but I don't feel particularly protected by the cheap Chinese masks that don't fit properly even if I was wearing one for my entire shift. The problem with this virus is that it's just SO contagious. Everyone's pushing wearing surgical masks or homemade shirt-masks and THEY DON'T STOP THIS VIRUS. It's like putting a plaster on a scraped knee while your arm is only hanging on by a tendon. I'm just thankful Finland is getting through this with so few infections compared to other places. I had a horrific cold after I came back from the Mallorcan competition, but I always catch a cold in airports and I traveled through 4 airports in 2 weeks. I think it was just a bad cold, not quite the right symptoms, but, like you say, who knows?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on May 15th, 2020 at 10:18am
We had 81 people test positive in just one nursing home near us. No telling how many in others around here.

Very few people here are dying from it. I question how so many people seem to be dying in New York and so few everywhere else in the US. People are living close to one another but hell...81 old and infirm in one nursing home means itís all over the place here as well. Still not seeing anything close to the numbers as New York. Letís focus our quarantine where itís needed most rather than the whole country shutting down.

Also, I would sure love YouTube to stop censoring all dissenting opinions from qualified doctors. Iíve seen several videos with doctors from different parts of the country giving tons of real world data from their practice, not ďmodelsĒ.  They go super viral and then get deleted. Not for breaking any of the terms of service, but for presenting opposing scientific data that goes against the mainstream narrative.

I donít like the precedent being set by this. Itís too emotion/fear based. More data is better than less. More discussion from trained and respected doctors is better than less. Censorship and taking away freedoms ďfor the greater goodĒ concerns me. Especially when we canít even seem to discuss the issues from all sides without being shouted down.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by joe_meadmaker on May 15th, 2020 at 12:40pm

Kick wrote on May 15th, 2020 at 8:38am:
I don't feel particularly protected by the cheap Chinese masks that don't fit properly even if I was wearing one for my entire shift. The problem with this virus is that it's just SO contagious. Everyone's pushing wearing surgical masks or homemade shirt-masks and THEY DON'T STOP THIS VIRUS.

One thing to keep in mind about the masks, they're not supposed to protect you.† The mask is supposed to protect everyone else from you.† The idea is that the moisture in your breath (potentially carrying a virus) as you exhale is absorbed by the mask instead of floating around in the air.† As to the actual effectiveness of this, I have no idea.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on May 16th, 2020 at 12:11pm
I get that, but it's still peddled as protecting yourself because they're worried people won't care enough about their fellow man to wear them. And yeah the effectiveness of all this is still seemingly very much up in the air. It's all just very stressful and I can just see the situation unfolding where I have to be wearing a mask for 8 hours a day for... ever.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by perpetualstudent on May 16th, 2020 at 12:24pm
Again, I'm of a pessimistic bent. I think the real debate over whether to recommend masks had nothing to do with whether the masks themselves kept people safer but whether it would spur behavior (proper washing of hands, social distance) that WOULD keep people safer.

It worked for a bit at least here in WI. When the masks were first suggested, a lot of people  wore, the herd got skittish, people kept their distance and I'd bet washing and showering went up. But it wore off. Numbers of mask wearers (that I've seen) are going down. Was it worth it? We don't know. I think it's ultimately going to damage how much the public will obey the public health experts. Herd management is a fiddly thing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on May 16th, 2020 at 4:06pm

perpetualstudent wrote on May 16th, 2020 at 12:24pm:
Again, I'm of a pessimistic bent. I think the real debate over whether to recommend masks had nothing to do with whether the masks themselves kept people safer but whether it would spur behavior (proper washing of hands, social distance) that WOULD keep people safer.


This is exactly what I think.


perpetualstudent wrote on May 16th, 2020 at 12:24pm:
Numbers of mask wearers (that I've seen) are going down.


I've seen this too. Or... not seen this... I've seen a lot fewer masks.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on May 16th, 2020 at 6:13pm

Kick wrote on May 16th, 2020 at 12:11pm:
It's all just very stressful and I can just see the situation unfolding where I have to be wearing a mask for 8 hours a day for... ever.


Every time Iím in a hospital I feel bad for the nurses and doctors in there. I have such a hard time breathing in mine canít imagine spending every shift in one. Luckily thereís a solution:

https://youtu.be/j7LBBjZBcLs

:D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by joe_meadmaker on May 16th, 2020 at 6:56pm
OH WOW!† That is remarkable in some kind of way!† ;D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on May 16th, 2020 at 7:23pm
Lol! I know right? In her defense, sheís not wrong. It does make it easier to breathe.    ;D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on May 17th, 2020 at 4:04am
Oh yeah I've seen that video. The stupidity of some people never ceases to amaze me. With wearing a mask, I'm not wearing one for my entire shift with no breaks, but with having to wear one when in contact with residents, I'm more often wearing one than not. I've found my nose and eyes have been super dry and the tie on masks ride up into my eyes and squish my nose. Basically they're awful. The ear loop ones aren't the worst but they aren't exactly fun. The really cheap Chinese ones that have been mass produced in a hurry are really bad. They're too small for almost everyone so really dig into your ears. I can't wear one for more than half an hour at the very most.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Lusitano on May 17th, 2020 at 4:20am
As I work in a shared location we are required to use mask while working this means full 8 hours with pause only for meal. My company provides 2 masks per person everyday. It is not confortable but on the other I would not return to work without everyone using them.
Although not 100% effective they do reduce the risk of contagion signicantly. That and the correct distancing and etiquette.
Here in Portugal, we start to open up and now the use of masks in shops or closed public places and transports is also mandatory and you will be finned in case of non-compliance.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on May 25th, 2020 at 9:28am
   My state, New Jersey, is starting to lift its quarantine. This is being done for financial reasons only. We currently have 5517 cases in my county alone with 217 deaths. We are no safer than we were last week or the week before. The sad thing is that this might be completely necessary. We can't stay shut down forever. The economy might never recover. No one wants to say it but we don't have a choice. This plague will have to run its course and millions will die.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on May 28th, 2020 at 11:28am
Not so sure RM. Itís probably not so bad that NJ is opening up. Texas has been open for about three weeks and itís not exactly the zombie apocalypse down here. 40% of all coronavirus cases in the US are in nursing homes, so as long as you donít live in one and take reasonable precautions, youíre relatively safe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on May 28th, 2020 at 11:40am
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/related-to-obvious-other-causes-gunshot-victims-included-in-washington-coronavirus-death-tally

I work in an area that has probably at least a hundred covid patients. 81 from one nursing home and there are many nursing homes with patients. Iíve transported a whopping 1 patient that was for sure covid positive for breathing difficulties. Doctors and nurses all over the country are coming out and saying the data they are getting at their practices with real world covid patients (not models) shows itís about on par with the flu.

Not saying anyone should throw caution to the wind but this so far seems a lot more bark and a lot less bite. Iím very skeptical of the numbers being given. Thereís plenty of dissenting information out there but unfortunately itís all being quashed by the mainstream narrative/censorship.




Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Bill Skinner on May 28th, 2020 at 1:39pm
We passed 100,000 deaths yesterday.  Those are known cases.    Due to no testing in the general population, the US has no idea how many people have it or had it and recovered or died from it.

Supposedly, the case numbers are leveling out. 

And the purpose of the lock down was not to stop the virus, it was to avoid over loading the ICU's.  "Flatten the curve".  Remember?

Also, I think the doctors actually treating the cases have figured out several different treatments, in spite of the "experts" and their advice.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on May 29th, 2020 at 3:20pm

NooneOfConsequence wrote on May 28th, 2020 at 11:28am:
Not so sure RM. Itís probably not so bad that NJ is opening up. Texas has been open for about three weeks and itís not exactly the zombie apocalypse down here. 40% of all coronavirus cases in the US are in nursing homes, so as long as you donít live in one and take reasonable precautions, youíre relatively safe.


Texas doesn't have the population density of the Northeast.† We are in a hot spot. I don't live in terror of this but I won't participate in the state's reopening.† Being retired I can continue my quarantine until it's really safe, whenever that will be.† I've seen this movie before. We're far from out of the woods.
CovidNJ.jpg (76 KB | 5 )

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Jun 2nd, 2020 at 9:29am
I understand RM. so far, the evidence still suggests that reopening isnít making the outbreak worse, and the quarantines seem to be much worse than the outbreak. By the way... Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio all have high population densities. Texas population averages are skewed by the western half of the state... and of all places, Amarillo has been hit worse than the bigger cities.

It doesnít make for good television to bring a scientist on screen to say ďwe donít knowĒ, but the people making bold claims with certainty in the name of science are pundits, not scientists.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Jun 3rd, 2020 at 12:01am
   The  bottom line is we all have to wait and see.  My perspective as a fat old man with asthma would be different from yours.  I will error on the side of caution.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Jul 5th, 2020 at 12:51pm
     Maybe all this quarentining has given me too much time to think.  I'm not one to panic or despair but I am a bottom line person. 
     Covid doesn't give a rat's ass about your job, indoor restaurant dining, your favorite team's season, going to the beach, how bored you are, your grandmother, your favorite bar, the Rock concert you had to give up on, the economy, or whether or not you think it's a hoax. 
    Covid does just one thing and it does it well.  It gets in our lungs and replicates. We have no vaccine to stop it.  If we catch it we don't become immune like with other viruses.  We can get it again and again and each time it's worse.  We have never seen anything like this and currently WE HAVE NO SOLUTION WHATSOEVER.
     There are many fools among us. There always have been. That's just the way it is.  Panic and despair are useless but we are in deep shit and had better take this seriously.  Right now our only hope is to stay calm and make intelligent informed individual (not what the government tells us) decisions.... and be prepared for the long haul. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Jul 5th, 2020 at 4:55pm

Rat Man wrote on Jul 5th, 2020 at 12:51pm:
† †† Maybe all this quarentining has given me too much time to think.† I'm not one to panic or despair but I am a bottom line person.†
† †† Covid doesn't give a rat's ass about your job, indoor restaurant dining, your favorite team's season, going to the beach, how bored you are, your grandmother, your favorite bar, the Rock concert you had to give up on, the economy, or whether or not you think it's a hoax.†
† † Covid does just one thing and it does it well.† It gets in our lungs and replicates. We have no vaccine to stop it.† If we catch it we don't become immune like with other viruses.† We can get it again and again and each time it's worse.† We have never seen anything like this and currently WE HAVE NO SOLUTION WHATSOEVER.
† †† There are many fools among us. There always have been. That's just the way it is.† Panic and despair are useless but we are in deep shit and had better take this seriously.† Right now our only hope is to stay calm and make intelligent informed individual (not what the government tells us) decisions.... and be prepared for the long haul.†


I would be less worried about this first wave and more about the next one that comes.

Cheery thought I know. Hey Iím always here for you man!† ;D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by perpetualstudent on Jul 5th, 2020 at 7:56pm
I am more sanguine about the whole thing than I was. But I'm a fairly decent shape 30 something. It's not that the younger set are bullet proof but this seems to really have it in for the older folks. Hospitalization and mortality data say we are not all equally at risk. We're not going to visit grandparents or even going to church because of the risk we might pose to the older set. But we're going to the park again. Letting the girls go to the grocery store again. I think this looks really different if you're over or under 45.

A couple years back I did a lot of research into the prepping world. The pandemic preppers are their own breed and looking at their preparations really dampened my enthusiasm for the subject. There's really not much you can do for a bad pandemic. Unlike other disasters there are fewer meaningful things you can do. It's just not feasible to prepare for all the iterations and the cost to try would be higher than I'm willing to pay. Luckily the kung-flu has been mainly a dry run showing how it can run riot but is not itself a destroyer of civilizations.

I think the most important thing walking away from this is "what part of my general preparedness was found wanting? What steps am I taking to address this?"

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by IronGoober on Jul 5th, 2020 at 10:34pm
The whole point of quarantining and mask wearing was to stop transmission of the virus. This is possible if everyone complied and there was enough contact tracing and quarantining until the virus was purged from infected persons' systems. Look at Asia, New Zealand. It is possible. The U.S. as a whole, chose to ignore how to fight a pandemic and stop transmission of the virus for the perceived sake of people's personal freedom.

Masks are also a very viable way of reducing transmission. If they didn't work, every single hospital worker would become infected. Go find the rates of transmission to hospital workers, who have to wear a ton of PPE. It is WAY lower than the general population. PPE works, and masks are a major part of it.

Wear a mask when you are around anyone that you aren't living with. Period.† Stop being a whiny jackass about wearing a mask. It protects people around you.

You are not protecting yourself, you are protecting others that you could unknowingly infect by either being asymptomatic (have it but won't show symptoms) or pre-symptomatic (have it and will eventually show symptoms). That person could may be fine if they get it, but the chain of infection could kill someone who is more vulnerable. THAT is the logic. Protect OTHERS by wearing a mask. If everyone took this mindset, this pandemic wouldn't be nearly the problem it is.

On the topic of critical cases in a hospital, I have several horror stories from doctors and nurses that I know. One was that there were so many critical cases coming in that there were times when helicopters would be hovering around their hospital waiting for a bed to open up. When one would (i.e. a death), they would land and then take off to pick up the next case.† Of course this isn't the norm, but the person was questioning how anyone cannot see pandemic as a major crisis, or question its reality.†

Reopening isn't making the outbreak worse? How are you coming to that conclusion. Coronavirus cases didn't start really climbing UNTIL places started to reopen. California, case and point. People coming into contact with others without any protection for extended periods (i.e. bars, restaurants, gyms, etc.) are the main source of transmission. It wasn't happening when people stayed home.† Of course RM is correct, reopening has to occur eventually, but if everyone was proactive against not transmitting it to others (and stopped just thinking about themselves and what contraction would mean to them without thinking about what it means to others) the virus could be stopped enough that things could reopened safely. (this is my opinion, but based on the PPE evidence that is out there).

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Jul 6th, 2020 at 5:55am
Wearing a mask is such a simple thing. To be honest even before Covid half the time I was happy wearing a mask at work because you simply donít know what a person has. Ever been face to face with a super active TB patient? That is scary and gross and will make you paranoid even with a fitted N95† and face shield.

The other half of the time wearing a mask is a pain. The issue with this virus, and you can read this directly from Dr. Fauci, is how varied this virus can be. Itís really weird in that sense.

I still contend any crisis we have is going to be used for political gain and this is no different but a mask isnít a hill worth dying on for me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by perpetualstudent on Jul 6th, 2020 at 8:22am
I've seen more jackassery about you HAVE TO WEAR MASKS than I have about I WILL NEVER WEAR A MASK. And the debate itself shifts and shifts. Are we talking about face coverings? Specific grades of masks? Asymptomatic carriers? Herd behavior when masks are required? Wearing a mask when you have symptoms? I honestly don't think it's about any of those things. It's become just a manifestation of the left/right divide in the country. Your team has a side, go scream on the internet about it.

It's been interesting watching the language shift about this thing. We've shifted from "Corona Virus Deaths" to "Died from" vs "Died with" and I saw most recently in a BBC article they were using "unexpected deaths" to try to capture the effects of our changes and normal rate of death but also things like suicide. Regardless, my observations of the herd is that they're done. They've panicked. They've done as much prepping as they will. They're getting back to normal.  No amount of noise will change that, we'd have to see a difference in mortality data to change the herd's behavior.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Jul 6th, 2020 at 3:19pm
    I'm pretty sure that change in the mortality data is coming. As the young and strong start catching this multiple times I think then the herd will see the danger.  People are becoming bored, restless, fed up... whatever.  They will do their best to go back to life as it was.  Bottom line: at least for now life as it was is gone.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Jul 6th, 2020 at 6:24pm
Don't worry everyone, President Kanye West will come and save us all!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Mersa on Jul 8th, 2020 at 7:32am
As long as he likes fish sticks

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Jul 11th, 2020 at 11:16pm
† †† One of my bowling leagues is attempting to start up again tomorrow.† I love bowling and miss it and my friends much.† But I won't be participating.† We are in a hot spot here in the Northeast and we're having a second wave of the virus.† Part of surviving during such times is being mentally tough.† I am fat, old, and have asthma.† I don't like bowling enough to die for it.
† †† One thing the dogs and I really miss is our off leash dog park, Timber Creek Park.† Every day I walk one the dogs individually around the neighborhood because this pack still won't group walk for me so they each get walked twice a week.† And they have two long playtimes in their own yard each day but they're not getting enough exercise.† Running free like maniacs with other dogs in the park for a few hours really drains their batteries, in a good way.† I have considered going to the park but wearing a mask the whole time.† But I'd still be socializing with a large group of strangers.† Though I feel terrible about depriving them of what they love the most, Timber Creek Park will have to wait until this crap is under control.† As unfortunate as their lack of adequate exercise is, their situation would be much worse if I died.†

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Kick on Jul 12th, 2020 at 3:45am
Things are opening up here a lot. We're now allowing visitors into the old folks home I work at which is... a little scary. What's crazy is that we've had 6 people die so far this year NONE of them COVID related. A lot of them were tested beforehand so we now they were negative. There's only been one case in our facility and it was on another ward so we've really avoided it which is what is now scary to me. Just waiting for that second wave. Finland has only had 329 deaths and only has 6 people in hospital right now, but still the fear is there. The fact it's still a massive problem elsewhere means that sitting back and relaxing because things in Finland are going ok is still a mistake in my eyes. We're far from out of thethe woods yet if for no other reason than I can't visit my family in England and they can't visit me because Boris has so thoroughly botched, well, just about everything.

Here is the information for Finland in English for those interested:
https://thl.fi/en/web/infectious-diseases-and-vaccinations/what-s-new/coronavirus-covid-19-latest-updates/situation-update-on-coronavirus

Lots of good info and charts and such. Near the bottom it has a graph for the nunber of cases for the Nordoc countries and Estonia and it's pretty shocking to see it so clearly but Sweden's lack of action is plain as day (another reason Finland shouldn't get to relaxed, just look over that thin thin border).

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Jul 21st, 2020 at 5:52pm
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-says-covid-19-cases-u-s-may-be-10-n1232134

You would never know that this article is almost a month old by listening to the news today. All fear, all the time. So if 10 times as many people have it than what was thought and the death rate remains the same that would mean itís at best as deadly as the flu. Iíve talked to multiple medical professionals about this and so far they agree the media has been hyping this far beyond what is actually being seen. From one ER RN who put it quite plainly- ďThe death rate weíve seen is no different than what we see every year from the flu.Ē This is from working in a Covid center here south of Houston where many covid patients are being funneled to.

Hereís another interesting one. You can find a number of experts attempting to speak up on this but they keep getting buried beneath Googleís almighty algorithm.

https://youtu.be/IP2UYpzLof0



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Jul 22nd, 2020 at 12:28pm
† † Do you honestly believe the United States would shut down its economy, especially under this administration, for something no worse than the flu?† Treat this lightly if you wish.† You only get one chance to do the plague right.†

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Jul 22nd, 2020 at 12:55pm

Rat Man wrote on Jul 22nd, 2020 at 12:28pm:
† † Do you honestly believe the United States would shut down its economy, especially under this administration, for something no worse than the flu?† Treat this lightly if you wish.† You only get one chance to do the plague right.†



This is an important point. This article is quoting directly from the CDC. No need to question me, question the CDC.

By the way Iíve never treated this lightly. Every patient I deal with that is likely covid positive I wear a full head to toe Tyvek suit, N95, face shield, eye wear and gloves. In the Texas summer no less. I dare say you could hardly take it more seriously than I already do and not live in a bubble. Everything Iíve said has been based on personal experience with covid patients, experts who have their own experience and scientific studies.

I guess my question here is why respond like that when itís the CDC making this claim? This is quite a large study that backs up precisely a previous study. Shouldnít we be happy to hear this news? Shouldnít we gladly adjust our outlook to correlate with the greater scientific evidence we have available?† Honest question here. I donít understand that mindset nor that response at all.

In answer to your question - Yes, if they believed it was more serious than it actually was. Which based on our most recent data is exactly what happened. Go back to articles and quotes given by officials when this first took off and you will find the models are far worse than what we are seeing.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Jul 23rd, 2020 at 2:25am
    I trust NO information coming out of tRump's CDC.  My attic renter Mike works as an IT guy at Lady or Lourdes Hospital.  I get good info from him.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/03/trumps-cdc-director-has-a-history-of-controversial-opinions-on-controlling-viruses/

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Jul 23rd, 2020 at 5:13am
Fair enough....A previous study from May preformed by researchers from the University of Sourthern California and the L.A. Department of Public Health (two organizations that are surely as far politically from Trump as anyone could hope) showed the same thing.

From the Journal of American Medical Association

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766367

An excerpt from the posted study:

The estimate implies that approximately 367 000 adults had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, which is substantially greater than the 8430 cumulative number of confirmed infections in the county on April 10.3 Therefore, fatality rates based on confirmed cases may be higher than rates based on number of infections.

367000 infections vs the 8430 infections originally thought. Thatís far more than 10 times greater so if anything the CDC study is grossly understating the situation, at least for those people in California.

The whole purpose of the scientific method is to make information gathering as objective as possible. So far different studies from opposing political spheres are lining up exactly with each other. If there is an objection let it be with the methodology of the study, specifically.

Just to reiterate, Iíve never said anything about not wearing masks or disregarding official precautions. Iím all for it. I am also quite worried about the pandemic, just not this current iteration of it. The next mutation may actually be the pandemic that this was suspected of being early on and that IS something to worry about.

That being said at least for now this is far less lethal than we were told early on which is a good thing.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Jul 23rd, 2020 at 3:06pm
I certainly hope you're right.  What concerns me the most is that unlike the flu we can apparently catch this over and over again.  I certainly would like to see things return to normal as much as anyone else.  But I'm  going to be in no big rush to join the stampede back to the bars, restaurants, movies, etc..

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Jul 24th, 2020 at 1:52pm
The big rush we had to open back up, especially with people not social distancing I think was the big problem.

Despite my desire to celebrate the small wins, this disease really does concern me. It is very real and just because itís not the immediate disaster we were told it would be itís still a scary disease that can and will kill you if you are unlucky enough to get a bad case of it.

The most concerning being that there are cases of really healthy people getting it who get extremely sick. One being a firefighter I know of who was in super good shape and now has tubes coming out of his chest; anecdotal but concerning.

I still worry far more about another wave of this or some other disease but I know of several medics that have gotten very bad cases of one of the strains going around here.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Jul 25th, 2020 at 11:24am
    I got an email from my bowling league today.  They're attempting to start up again.  They've put some safeguards in place;  smaller, three person teams, everyone must be masked, no food from the snack bar, less people allowed in the bowling alley, all tables farther apart, etc.  Bowling was a good portion of my social life and I do miss it but one gets only gets one chance to do the plague right.  I'll pass this time around.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by IronGoober on Jul 29th, 2020 at 6:21pm

Morphy wrote on Jul 24th, 2020 at 1:52pm:
The big rush we had to open back up, especially with people not social distancing I think was the big problem.

Despite my desire to celebrate the small wins, this disease really does concern me. It is very real and just because itís not the immediate disaster we were told it would be itís still a scary disease that can and will kill you if you are unlucky enough to get a bad case of it.

The most concerning being that there are cases of really healthy people getting it who get extremely sick. One being a firefighter I know of who was in super good shape and now has tubes coming out of his chest; anecdotal but concerning.

I still worry far more about another wave of this or some other disease but I know of several medics that have gotten very bad cases of one of the strains going around here.


Honestly, it's the anecdotal events that scare me the most. Sure, statistically you'd be fine, but anecdotally, any one of us could be totally f'd. That is what gives me the most caution about this disease.

Another thought, that's why many people get flu shots too, statistically, most will be fine, but you don't want to be the anecdote.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by NooneOfConsequence on Jul 30th, 2020 at 8:42am
https://www.foxnews.com/health/can-the-coronavirus-spread-through-the-air

Yet another reason to avoid elevators and take the stairs.

Also... isnít it wonderful how half a year into a pandemic, itís still considered newsworthy that it MIGHT be spread through the air?!  As a scientist, this is really embarrassing.  As a human being, it is infuriating that people get paid to "inform" the public with such amazing insights.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Morphy on Jul 30th, 2020 at 7:40pm

IronGoober wrote on Jul 29th, 2020 at 6:21pm:

Morphy wrote on Jul 24th, 2020 at 1:52pm:
The big rush we had to open back up, especially with people not social distancing I think was the big problem.

Despite my desire to celebrate the small wins, this disease really does concern me. It is very real and just because itís not the immediate disaster we were told it would be itís still a scary disease that can and will kill you if you are unlucky enough to get a bad case of it.

The most concerning being that there are cases of really healthy people getting it who get extremely sick. One being a firefighter I know of who was in super good shape and now has tubes coming out of his chest; anecdotal but concerning.

I still worry far more about another wave of this or some other disease but I know of several medics that have gotten very bad cases of one of the strains going around here.


Honestly, it's the anecdotal events that scare me the most. Sure, statistically you'd be fine, but anecdotally, any one of us could be totally f'd. That is what gives me the most caution about this disease.

Another thought, that's why many people get flu shots too, statistically, most will be fine, but you don't want to be the anecdote.


You and me both IG. Those anecdotal stories are the ones that keep you alive. That fear keeps you cautious.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Plumbata on Aug 9th, 2020 at 9:45am
Figured I'd chime in, I'm not in medicine but the chemicals and pharmaceuticals trade is in my wheelhouse and since I'm self employed with a malleable schedule I paid the coronavirus my utmost attention starting the day Wuhan was shut in January.

All the stupid politics on both sides severely hampered the USA's early response, with the media and senators saying that the flu is more worrysome and going to Chinatowns for photo ops and many articles and reports purposefully confusing people about N95 and P100 respirator masks in order to maintain supply for healthcare workers; all sorts of idiocy went down in the early months of this which is still causing harm now.

I paid attention to the research and reports coming out around the world and the moment that Chloroquine Diphosphate (cellular zinc ionophor) and Zinc was reported as a viable treatment around February 3rd I began energetically building my viral doomsday preppers stockpile.

Since I'm in the industry I know exactly how and where to obtain bulk Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), the stuff bought cheap by our pharma companies, pressed into pills for convenient swallowing and marked up only 10,000% if you're lucky for that indispensible service...

So, just in case petty politics keeps screwing things up and I need to do it myself if I want it done right, I bought and have a large quantity of Chloroquine Diphosphate, Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, Doxycycline, Zinc, plus lots of other pure antibiotics and meds and then a big pile of relevant antiviral and supportive/synergistic medicinal herbs, supplements, minerals and vitamins. Got 2 oxygen concentrator machines too just in case my literal COVID pharmacy alone wasn't enough.

I got all the N95s and P100s my family would need, gloves and other PPE too and even grabbed a case of Russian NBC gas masks, could flip em now for 5x what I paid lol.

All that said, I've come to fully understand that the pandemic, while certainly fearsome and worth avoiding, is being used as convenient cover for the takedown and reset of the debt and derivative-choked global monetary, fiscal, and economic system, and understanding the gravity of what is at stake, in March I polished up the top of my COVID stockpile and moved on to the much more important big-picture need to protect assets, reduce exposure to the system, hoard physical bullion (plus cheap Silver ETF calls and mining companies for now) which is already showing extraordinary gains, and generally preparing for whatever an economic breakdown may bring. My big crop of potatoes for example can be stored underground all winter if necessary, and while I hope it's not I've never been so spooked in my life; got babies to protect now, so I'm playing it as smart, cautious and self-sufficient as I can. It may seem like tinfoil and I apologise, but my instincts have always guided me to safety and success, and in the absence of actually trustworthy institutions and authorities I must trust my instincts more than ever now.

If I can offer one single bit of advice regarding how to prosper through this chaotic time, it is to buy as much real physical silver bullion or coin as possible. It may look expensive at more than double the March low, but I promise you all that it's still the most undervalued real asset on earth and will be a financial life saver if all else crumbles. Whatever happens, good luck to you all!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Bill Skinner on Aug 9th, 2020 at 12:20pm
Gold is supposed to double. 

Personally, my family and I have land.  I live on an 80 acre farm.  And everything is paid for. 

All I've got to worry about is my elected leaders taxing me out of existence.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Plumbata on Aug 9th, 2020 at 12:55pm
Beautiful, good land is true wealth in my book, hopefully I can leverage the family onto a homestead/farm within a few years. I do have plenty of hands on "back to basics" skills so know it will work out better than staying in a town, safe as it is here in Wyoming.

Gold is the best option relative to just about anything else and will eventually leave that doubled price in the dust due to the mounting fiscal/monetary pressures,  but Silver is the supreme asset of the 21st century high tech future and beyond. Throughout history silver came out of the ground at a rate of around 12:1 versus gold, but industrial consumption since the mid 19th century has sent 90% ever mined to the landfill, leaving the world today with roughly equivalent above ground reserves of gold to silver, annually decreasing total mine yields, and a decreasing yield ratio (less than 9 silver to 1 gold gets mined now). Considering how silver is absolutely critical to green energy and all high technology, and considering how the World Economic Forum is literally telling us that The Great Economic Reset will center around massive green energy infrastructure projects started by countries around the world at the same time, just the industrial aspect alone will send it soaring over the next few years. Obviously the monetary/hedge aspect is at play right now, but that only synergizes with the modern reality of a lower relative supply of silver than at any time in history, now at a time when it's true technological value is just starting to come into view. If you have any metals just hold tight for now and wait for the valuation fireworks to start, as they're structurally inevitable now. And if you succeed in holding on, paying even inflated property taxes but otherwise living free outside of the system will be a much more viable prospect on the other side of this.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by slingbadger on Aug 9th, 2020 at 3:25pm
And of course, there's still lots of stupidity to go around. One of the latest "cure" are psychedelic mushrooms and weight lifting. If you have under 10% body fat, you're immune.
† Oh, and people have taken to drinking disinfectant. Turns out the isopropyl alcohol in it can make you go blind.




Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by Rat Man on Aug 9th, 2020 at 5:45pm
    Both of my bowling leagues are attempting to gather members for the Fall season.  Some of my team mates will be participating.  I won't.  It's hard to say no.  I miss my friends and I miss bowling.  But I want to be around to see the end of this. No thanks.  Maybe next year.  I hope. If that second stimulus check is ever sent we're going to increase our ammo supply and arsenal.  I've already got plenty of food stockpiled.  Next year I'll have a vegetable garden and I'm going to learn how to jar my own produce.  That could prove very useful.  I have room for a nice sized garden. 

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