A lot of our Atlantic hurricanes originate in Africa as you all know.  Consequently I'm always keeping an eye there. Tomorrow night an impressive wave will be leaving Africa's coast headed our way. It warrants watching. I've been scoping this one out for a few days now.

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    Apparently there are large expanses of dry, dusty air from the Sahara that are preventing these tropical waves from organizing.... yet another variable. The Atlantic Basin is dead quiet.

   And the Atlantic Basin remains strangely quiet.  There are a couple of large waves leaving the coast of Africa now and it's getting later in the season.  We'll be seeing some action soon.

Finally something to track... Dorian.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144923.shtml?cone

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You seem happy that I might get smacked with a hurricane. 

Thanks a lot, buddy.   ;D 

I hope you get lots of snow this winter.   ;D

Seriously, hurricane season has been difficult to predict.  One guy at the U of Colorado got it right one year, he's been wrong ever since.  Farmer's Almanac has been right more often than NOAA as far as long term forecasts.  Lots of variables like the Sahara winds and such that haven't been figured out, yet.

Part of the problem is the predictions, the experts will say we are supposed to get so many hurricanes and tropical storms each year, then we don't.  But way too many people treat that educated guess as if it's a fact.  So. if the number is high or low, then it's an anomaly instead of a bad guess.
 

  I would never wish a hurricane on anyone. LOL.  Besides almost all hurricanes that hit the east coast end up doing at least something to us here in New Jersey. Usually it's just lots of rain but sometimes we get hit hard here too. There are so many variables I don't know if long range hurricane prediction will ever become a reality.

Dorian. Catagory 5 supposed to hit S. Carolna in a few days  :'(

   Dorian is a monster.  There is more uncertainty about its path than  I can remember for any other hurricane.  They just don't know where it will make landfall.  Bahamas took a real beating.  It will be in the New Jersey area on Friday. Good luck to everyone in harms way.

After a while one gets good at identifying the waves that might develop. Here's an interesting one coming off of Africa now.

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Yep, it's got some rotation now...

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And that turned into Lorenzo, currently a Cat 5.